Member Info for Cnutgoestheeasal

Medium term it would definitely be that the offer succeeds and the company is sold for a song.

Short term it would be, for me at least, the offer fails, the Patels don't up their offer and no other offer is received. Unlikely though I think this would be, it is a possibility. Established wisdom says that the share price would retrace, perhaps back to 11p. However, I'm not so sure.

In the short interview Eric gave (yesterday?), he could not contain his enthusiasm for the company's prospects. He even repeated the point I have made repeatedly that on an annualised basis the company is worth less than twice Q3's EBITDA. Furthermore the embargo on information will be lifted and we peasants plus the rest of the market will be able to see Q4's results. In the interview Eric as good as said they will be even better than Q3's results.

Will Mr Market really ignore these excellent metrics and by implication the whacky valuation - even more so at 11p.

I wonder....

Yes I am

Err - I'm quoting the man - "we are very cheap"

What was not discussed was the elephant in the room (which he is promoting!)

Am I imagining this all ? Perhaps the bid never existed....?

Nobody with a straightforward sense of public duty would spend quite so much time and effort and generate so many posts trying (and failing) to change minds.

No, something else lies behind your prolific effort. Whatever it is I rather suspect you're aiming to make money out of us ordinary SHG holders.

The whole thing stinks from the derisory premium to the timing just before Xmas to the pulling of public information by the Board.

And yes I'm afraid you're part of the pong!

I must confess I'm amused by the antics of some posters. Some are clearly paid trolls but others are probably genuine. Bailing at this point for the stock of the moment SRB strikes me as classic "follow the pied piper behaviour."

Look I own SRB as well as SHG. I believe both have demonstrated they are well run miners but both have their issues. Nothing has changed in the last 2 weeks in terms of their relative attractiveness and yet their share price performance has diverged significantly.

SRB have a temporary license for their great white hope Coringa. It is due to expire in the next month and they have been given the absolute run around by the Brazilians in terms of getting a permanent license. If they lose that opportunity (and presumably the license goes to a Brazilian based miner) what does that do to their prospects.

Given that I've tripled my holding in SHG and note with approval the bid/offers going up as others have noted below.

Let's see if momentum is really the best investing style for UK junior miners....

I can't recall how much did each hold prior to the announcement of the bid?

MrTibbles - you are really trying too hard.

Look at the previous quarters cash results for SHG - adjusted EBITDA is less than 2 - as I've previously mentioned.

Excepting interest income/charges you wait 2 years to get your money back. That's a pretty good investment payback in anybody's book. That's why the Patels et al launched their pre-Xmas raid. The timing says it all

Forget analysts - who knows whose pulling their strings? Do your own research and form your own opinion.

By all means stick with CEY - I have those shares too but to compare Dopopo you're comparing apples and pears.

Btw who is pulling your strings?

I'm wondering whether this goes a little deeper and really the Patel's et al are really only in the flipping of assets business. I would at least explain why they have borrowed pretty much all the money required and for only a short period. I.e it's more akin to a bridging loan than financing an asset purchase.

It's a bit dark but let's say the Patel's are already pretty thick with the Tanzanian government so they suggest to their favoured ministers that they assemble a lowball bid. The government puts off all would be buyers by quietly whispering in their ear that life will be made intolerable if they try and by the company directly from shareholders. Instead they should wait until the company is in private hands. They get to buy the company at a commercial price. The Patel's make a quick profit on the flip and a few ministers are paid fat commissions for the whole transaction. What's not to like? Everybody gets what they want and so it's a win win!!!

All except the poor bloody UK AIM shareholders that is!!!

If what you say is true then under the takeover terms, payments to the CEO and other Board members to induce them to support the offer MUST be disclosed. No such payment has been disclosed and yet Eric seems to have undergone a damascene conversion.

Not very saintly. In fact borderline fraudulent.

You spelt me wrong hence didn't turn up on search...

I can't see me on the list +700k

Top tiger!

That's the spirit...

Don't be patronising! You've got some fancy piece of philosophy in your head and you're gonna preach it to the boneheads even when it patently is bad advice.

I understand you by your actions. If you prevaricate you're not in the fight. Trust your analysis and your instincts and mine tell me that this bid hugely undervalues the company. An annualised EBITDA of less than x2 of the offer price means you only have to wait 2 years to get your money back.

To the billionaires this is a slam dunk if patsies like yourselves just roll over. Fight and get their respect and maybe get a better offer....?

"i completely believe in addition by subtraction in life"

Taken too literally this means you run away from anything remotely challenging/threatening.

Yes I can see your point but sometimes you have just got to put up a fight. The billionaires just rake it in and as we know the more they get the greedier they become. What are you going to do when they come back for more. More subtraction?

They have to be taught a lesson that yes they'll always win the lion's share but us little people will put up a fight if they go to far. Which they surely have here!

So if my understanding is correct some of the identities of those snapping up shares should reveal their positions if greater than 1%. If not then they are in breach of the rules

It would do no harm to nudge them into action. In our fight publicity (of the bad sort for the bidders) will do not harm.

Dear Questor

I’m contacting you about a share I hold, Shanta Gold (AIM-SHG) and thought you might be interested in some developments that happened today.

In short the company has, without warning, accepted a buyout proposal from a company called ETG. So what you might say, but I think there may be enough peculiarities in the case to pique your attention. They include:

· A premium to the undisturbed share price of 6.5%. This compares to a low of 25% and a high of 80% of the premiums achieve in the main market.

· The reason given for the sudden proposal is a lack of liquidity preventing major shareholders such as Mr Ketan Patel making the statement exiting without “causing a detrimental impact on the share price”. Strange then that he wants to do the opposite

· Complete lack of price discovery. No mention of any market testing conducted by the Board. The company received bids last year but rejected them. No disclosure of the offer price has been made.

· Why has the offer been rushed out without warning just before Xmas. In presentations given by the CEO to shareholders in the last few months he has been adamant that the company was not for sale. What has changed? He has previously announced his resignation but has not actually resigned.

· The Board appears to be completely missing in action. The CEO Eric Zurrin who used to front up all the presentations and shareholder communications is entirely missing in the offer document. Apart from a short message of support, the entire document is fronted by Ketan Patel who, before today, was neither seen nor heard.

· No financial projections have been included in the offer document. However, it is clear that the offer is not overly generous. Using the latest 6 months accounts to June 2023 It is being sold below book value and at 5.6 annualised EPS. However, since then the companies second mine has become fully operational and has even lower AISICs and thus more profitable than the existing mine. Using the latest quarterly release by the company to September 2023 (and which partly reflects the new mine coming on to full production) the offer amounts to less than twice the adjusted EBITDA on an annualised basis.

· The share price until recently has been artificially low as the previous largest holder (Odey AM at 12%) has been a forced seller.

· As mentioned above the entire offer document appears to be written by the Bidco and not SHG’s Board and as such consistently downplays the company’s prospects. Interestingly too, today’s coverage describes the company as struggling. Really? EBITDA more than doubled in the last quarter and cash in the bank. Struggling? I think not!

· And finally ETG Group has not been free of scandal. It recently has been embroiled in Fertilizer imbroglio in Zambia.

So, in short plenty to get your teeth into although I do appreciate it’s Christma

What do you ready to go. It is going. Great guns. Valuation offered by the recommended offer is less than twice annualised adjusted EBITDA for the latest quarter.

No wonder the pounced when they did.

Also I've contacted Questor (Telegraph) but if anybody else wants to help out by contacting the FT etc happy to post my synopsis to save you some time

Yes - contacted Questor with a one page synopsis of the situation. Messages were as follows:

Me: I’m contacting you about a share I hold, Shanta Gold (AIM-SHG) and thought you might be interested in some developments that happened today.

Richard Evans Questor: Thanks, I've forwarded your message to Russ Mould, who has covered it for us before

Me: Thanks - I notice Russ has covered Shanta earlier this year. Hopefully events will pique his interest!

RE: I'm sure they will!

No with circa 700k shares