Member Info for cm45

apologies all. I see uk sold final tranche in may last year. I was confusing them with rbs evidently. nevertheless I dont see banks, esp ukbanks, as a great investment relative to other sectors. each to their own.

graham I am happily not in lloyds but thought uk govt still owned a big slug, which they need to sell down, depressing the sp inevitably. could need a lot of div to come out net ahead surely?? I prefer to take my lumps and reinvest, much as it hurts to do it!

now thats an act of faith. brave approach to average down in this sector just now

housing market flat, consumers lacking confidence, labour shortages pushing up costs, rates on the increase- whats not to like?! good time to be diversified away from this sector, and uk economy. all only imo of course. always preferred capital growth to divs. fools gold but lots of different views make a market, even in decline

yes I thought it would start mu h higher today after the nasdaq +3%. took the opportunity to add another £25000 @ 4190 which seems a great price to me. we will see... long term investment not a trade anyway.

tipped as a buy in Investors chronicle jan 18 @ 338p and again at end march 18 @ 306. now drifted down to 292 and looks great value. way more upsude than downside surely but below the radar for many I guess. thoughts anyone?

Sparkling results today. Look forward to Simon Thompson s write up in investors chronicle as I am confident net asset value is significantly understated

Don't believe opec will be able to maintain production constraints to drive prices higher. Usa increasing production anyway @ $70. Just top sliced BP. Had a good run. Party almost over for now imo

excellent results from plus today and a big lift in sp. ptec still owns a big slug since failed takeover, so expect a rise here too

we are not in a bear market!! If Mark and the board had not messed up on his resignation announcement and the will or wont he be a non exec, the sp would be way higher. more so if mark was not unloading his shares

talk about pick a number!! the ultimate number is post tax profit. but you wanna pick one you like further up the food chain , go ahead. the point is that if house prices decline the impact on profit is greater than many expect. hence the sp drift. nationwide report year to end feb, market ave price up 2.2%. compared to year to end of Jan,3.2%. many now expect more rate rises in uk and usa than expected hitherto. wages are flat. consumer confidence is low. affordability already acknowledged as a big issue. in that scenario, if you feel tw is a great investment, best of luck .

now multiply your derived 70k profit by 15k houses sold. 1bn+ 'profit' ?? maybe some smoke and mirrors. presentation is all.

look I said it is a rule of thumb, right?and ignore if you dont like it! 15000 completions, c550m post tax profit. allowing for the usual creative accounting and other activities, who knows how much per house? not even the cfo/fd probably. its an indicator of how profit may follow house price changes. is all.

1% off 300k house sale is 3k. not such a big reduction. but if profit on a newbuild 300k house is 30k, then each 1% = 10% +- profit, right? rule of thumb not invented here but used by some analysts. as ever, folk can nitpick the numbers to suit their own views, but I find it a useful reminder of the gearing of builders profits to attainable selling prices. both up and down. for those who dont find it useful, just ignore.

I share many of your concerns. but this board tends to support each other in an alternative optimistic scenario based on the past, with a badic belief that tw. is entitled to be 200p by now and 250 by May. of course you are correct that affordability is key, both to potential buyers and existing owners avoiding repossession. I dont know about your 25k but I do buy the rough rule of thumb that if prices drop by 1% builders profitabilty drops by 10%. for me there are 2 key investment questions: given the outlook do I want to be in this sector and secondly, if I do,is TW the best value.

very good call AP. I caught a falling knife. thought they were smart/experienced enough to cope with new competion, and felt their new factory would give cost advantage. but I dont see much point selling at this level. and they are maintaining div. maybe we are both whistling in the dark....!!

Wow. drop from 720p 2 months ago to 560p today. Didn't think results were that bad but city evidently expected far better. Good buy now - Or falling knife?? Maybe BME is better....

Hope so. Bought in a couple of tranches yesterday below 370.

Great results yesterday and outlook. Jet2 entering the big league now. Sp up almost 20% yesterday. Maybe now will fly above the radar.... Expect some profit taking today but we will see. But BIG squeeze on any shorters here.

I read these recent positive posts about volume buys and yet sp unchanged? Market overhang? I am a long term holder but losing faith and patience. Time to move on, Take the loss to offset my cgt gains before 5/4/18 and reinvest in something with more immediate potential. GLA