Member Info for cm45

quite agree Tom. but 2 of my 20 somethings pay so much rent they cant save any deposit, and have had debts. even with a good wage a.mortgage in south east enough for even a tiny flat is out of the question. unless Bank of Dad steps up to the plate. again. The well for many is dry.... but I do hope you are right....

so strictly, you have a view on uanc and boot??

great post. thanks

why would you look at big utes. plenty else. I bought plus500 @550 a year ago. now 1930. usa online sports betting opening up at long last. lots of uk specialists to benefit. gvc ptec, gan,888,etc utes? no thanks

well of course thats what sensitivity analysis is!! you think my numbers too conservative. I thil your are fantasy. check back in 6 months.... others will use their own assumptions. I guess,'the city's closer to my numbers than yours. hence 170p heading gently south....

last year I believe tw sold 14400 homes to deliver £814m pre tax operating profit, or £56k per home sold. at results they acknowledged sales were down and cancellations up. if completions fall 10% to 12960, then 1440 x £56k will not be made. £80m. further if sales prices soften 2% from £287k then a further hit of £74m occurs. £154m of £814m. hmm. choose your own numbers, critique my math please but I suggest the f I sensitivity analysis is what is taking the sp down.

financial institutions and analysts but many only believe those that reflect their own views. so why is sp down? money talks...

no unexpected I can think of, or they would be expected right?! expected are for the reasons I set out and you choose to ignore in favour of spurious supply and demand. lower completions of purchase are expected by many hence lower profits. easy eh?

you seem puzzled that pers dont influence sp. its because pers are seen through rear view mirror and investors are looking through the windscreen at the road ahead. They see increasing uncertainty for consumers which will impact their willingness to incur new debt. it matters not one jot that there is and always has been and will be, demand for housing. the only thing that matters is potential buyers willingness to take on new credit commitments for the long term. brexit brings employment uncertainty and forecast of exchange rates down to 1.10. so lower volumes =lower profit which,imo, makes an sp of 160 far more likely than Toms much vaunted 200. just hope he is kidding....

well I added a few more with some spare cash in my isa, so.lets hope for an.uptick soon

maybe over encouraging others to buy, and coming down on anyone with a more realistic viewpoint?? dunno really

why the big. drop? cant see any news and trade very thin. may bea buying opp but i feel fully loaded here already

you may be right Johnson although now ftb are age 30+ they may be more canny? and although 1959 may not suit them, maybe 2000+ with all the snags worked out and still looking new, maybe with improvements such as conservatory and tasty gardens may tempt them....

with all the negative press about new build issues, I think many buyers find better value just now in 'used' homes. not good for the.sector

You said no institutions will touch the sector. Quite wrong.

Why would you expect a ringing endorsement when the sector is out of fashion and F I's dont like the outlook?

Get real

if you really think institutions wont touch this sector, just google major shareholders followed by epic code. eg tw. bkg. etc huge institutional shareholdings. of course. separate issue: The second hand housing market has seen growth of 8% in houses put up for sale, while potential buyers registering are flat/exgrowth. you may feel this has no impact on builders, but I am sure that it does. on volume and price/margin. just another reason the sector lacks enthusiastic buyers just now

positive brief write up in IC today, positioned as a buy

if you like this have you considered uanc? dyor very cheap after recent mega placing, and 3-directors made substantial buys after price drop following placing at 305. prior it was approaching 340

slow but steady moves up. maybe the increased (!) nato spending will benefit chrt

directirs evidently share my views: 2 have bought 120k shares (£370000) in the last 2 days. a steal at 305 imo