Member Info for cm22

Looking at TEK the last few years April appears to be a good month for the SP. In 2019 it rose about 120% in April. In 2020 it rose >100%. In 2021 even though it just rose by 12% on the month, it marked the beginning of a massive ramp up in the stock over the summer.
I think it may be related to the anticipation of the release of earnings in May, or it may mark a period where good news tends to be released.

apathy? Because no messages for 2 days? hmm

https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/self-driving-trucks-could-replace-90-of-long-haul-jobs?cx_testId=6&cx_testVariant=cx_1&cx_artPos=1#cxrecs_s

Guidant addressable market seems to be set to grow quickly!

There are start ups and then there are start ups. I feel a lot more relaxed than say 3 years ago. BELL have a pretty reliable distribution projection. Lucyd and Salarius also have strong and increasing distribution. It is only really Guidant which is the big question mark. 3 years ago, the company was just optimistic ideas.

On the relative performance, i think part of it is it has been a big winner for many and to raise cash investors prefer to take profits than realise losses. Another issue is microcaps don't benefit from institutional buyers who tend to come in and cushion falls.

Still, these aren't really related to the value of the company itself, just the normal market behaviour. My plan was for it to go up to >100p, and i would have fully expected pull backs along the way. Those stocks which rise the fastest also tend to have the steepest pull backs.

I am not sure where people get that TEK is an underperformer from. It was in single digits a couple of years ago. One of the best performing stocks out there. Need to get it in perspective.

Hi Agricore,
1. The way i see it is it makes sense for those stocks which became massively overvalued in the boom time (especially in the US) to come back down to earth, but TEK never got anywhere near even it's NAV.

2. The real question is what happens to inflation and interest rates in the medium term after covid/russia war are past. The last time oil hit $140 we were in deflation 12 months later. Subdued growth and easy monetary policy would probably be good for TEK.

3. In reality many people's decisions to sell come down to things as banal as to be able to pay for the increasing gas prices...

Indeed Veteran10, that is what creates support and resistance. But it doesn't really matter. New investors come in and when the old highs get taken out everyone gets energised again. Fundamentals always win out in the end, so that is what i am watching.

I agree TopCatz,

I think the business is relatively well insulated from the troublespots. I think the 4 companies have made great strides and will continue to do so. The selloff has been widespread and not particular to TEK at all.

I am quite suspicious of people who talk the stock down like that. I also would quite like the SP to fall a bit more so that i could increase my position on 1st April, but not convinced that it will. It is more a bet about market conditions generally rather than TEK. Valuations are relatively low and a lot of bad news has been priced in at this point.

Hi IP3LY, that makes more sense. But in any case, i doubt the support for Putin's policy in the Kremlin. Most of them think it is a disaster and don't want to end the world.

As TopCatz says that would be lovely - but he must be smart enough to have a contingent - i.e. if anyone does take his life he will have a confidante/executor to carryout a fail safe disaster plan by pressing the button to start WW3 and the confidante/executor takes his own life and each free of war crimes and the World suffers the consequences.
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I think that misunderstands how it works. There is no big red button that a confidante can press. Any nuclear or any other decision has to through a chain of people.

Hi bumblebee1, i think we have the opposite view to investing. I focus a lot more on fundamentals and valuations and growth prospects. If it goes down i see that as an opportunity to buy things at a lower price and have been doing that in the market over the last 6 weeks. Using short term price momentum to form views about long term price trends seems to me to be a very detrimental way to invest.

It seems obvious that the SP is disjointed from fundamentals. If you believe in fundamentals then seems like the 'drift' provides a good opportunity to buy not the other way around. Never a good idea to sell at the height of the panic.

The bleak version is he will do to Ukraine what he did to Grozny. I agree that the russian state/economy will fail in the long term but that could take a long time.

It does seem that the market wants to move on from Ukraine, so it will take something much worse to keep pushing stocks down.

I am not sure TopCatz, it seems that we could be entering the urban warfare phase which could be even more shocking, displaying russian brutality and cruelty to its fullest.

I am looking forward to the financial report being released (In May is it?). Market needs to be reminded how undervalued the company is. A new up leg should start soon imo.

Beautiful hammer today for BELL. Bullish price action on top of the positive financial report. Hopefully it will stick into the close.

I think that this bit is key:

"Inevitably, whilst these shortages remain, costs are higher, but as we increase volume and the shortages ease, we will start to benefit from economies of scale along with the potential benefits of reducing costs in 2023."

I feel quite reassured that TEK is trading so positively given the general anxiety around at the moment.

TopCatz, I agree that we do seem to have pushed on nicely the last few weeks. Just thought he deserved some credit...
He still sits on the board so is still involved.

To be fair i think Victor did a pretty great job taking the company from nowhere to where it is today.