And the offer caused the SP to increase by more than 50%, from approximately 3.5 p to 5.5 p. The offer has been beneficial for shareholders.
The recent bloodbath in stock markets worldwide made SXX an island of green in a sea of red. I thought it obvious then that the offer was a double blessing and, had it not been made, the share price would’ve fallen from 3.5 p like everything else.
Have you never held a share that’s gone into administration, or where there’s been a D4E swap? I’m sorry for those who have seen this crystallise a loss but they are still 5.5 p/share better off than had it gone into administration. In the long term it’s been painful for them but in the short term I think they’ve dodged a bullet on this vote.
The stock market is unpredictable at the best of times. And three months is a very long time frame.
I’ve got plenty of ideas. Just don’t expect any of them to be right.
“Rottweiler has bite of Ted Baker” 14/12/19.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3700a5ea-1dc5-11ea-8556-8cb7c08c0f76
An activist investor has more than doubled its stake in Ted Baker days after a profit warning resulted in the chairman and chief executive resigning.
Toscafund, a £4 billion hedge fund founded in 2000 by Martin “the Rottweiler” Hughes, 58, took a 5.9 per cent stake on Tuesday but took advantage of the fashion retailer’s sinking share price to build it to 11.9 per cent.
Ted Baker was started by Ray Kelvin in 1998 with one shop in Glasgow and has grown to 550 stores and concessions. He stepped down in April after allegations of misconduct, which he denies. This week in a third profit warning it said full-year profits would be £5 million, a 90 per cent nosedive on the year. A week ago the retailer had admitted a £25 million accounting error.
The shares have lost three quarters of their value this year but rose by 19½p, or 5.6 per cent, to 372¾p after the Toscafund stake was revealed.
One commentator said there was little for the activist to agitate for as the board had already been cleared out. “The numbers have been kitchen-sinked, there is fresh leadership in key positions and there is an upside from asset disposals and cost reductions,” he said. “Acting chairman Sharon Baylay is not wasting any time.”
To encourage panic selling & FOMO buying? And to trigger stop-loss selling?
“It's fallen back again, seems to be a big sell off £3.70“. To be frank, after this morning, anything above a 3% fall is a good finish. I didn’t expect to see it turn blue.
“You're probably correct Cloudy. However, it would be good if it's the start of an upturn“.
It would indeed be good.
I submitted that in mid-edit. I’m on my phone and the “post message” icon is far too large and easily tapped by mistake. It should have read:
“I’m guessing that it’s more market gyrations than good news. I surprised at the rise this afternoon as it has been descending Everest for a number of months now and, just when you think it is safe to get back into the water because it’s reached the foothills and can’t possibly fall any further, it decided to take shareholders on a scenic tour of the Marianas trench.
I’m guessing that it’s more market gyrations than good news. I surprised at the rise this afternoon as it has been descending Everest for a number of months now and, just when you think it is safe to get back into the water because it’s reached the foothills and , it decided to take shareholders on a scenic tour of the Marianas trench.
I’m sorry for anyone nursing a loss.
I’m not going to criticise anyone who’s held from the 30s - there’s so much psychology involved in investing and it’s never easy. It invariably looks easy, and SP movements dead obvious, when you’re looking at historical SP movements but at the time it’s anything but.
I’ve been watching this share closely and bought in this morning.
Typo. Last date should have been 3/12.
I’m not expecting the results next week to be great - a fall since last year, I suspect - but it may mark a reversal. Those shorting presumably know more than we do - and they are reducing their (declared) shorts.
I’ve been watching this stock carefully. Despite the fall yesterday, the shorts have been steadily decreasing, reversing the recent trend. On 28/10/19 the declared shorts were: 2.05%.
6/11. 2.13%
18/11 2.10%
19/11 1.87%
22/11 1.23%
3/13. 0.64%.
Someone on another thread on here (not SXX) claimed that he’d spoken to his/her “sources” (plural, no less!) who said that there was a possible takeover of the company. I didn’t believe it for a moment. Either way it seemed to be a risky claim to make and one that could land him/her in trouble.
I fully understand what Chris Fraser is expressing concern about. While you shouldn’t believe what you read on bulletin boards, it is easy for inexperienced people to get caught up in the fervour, whether optimistic or pessimistic. Those who post insider information should be in investigated.
Moreover, experienced investors can fall for false stories too. What makes you vulnerable is not inexperience but negative events. For example, if you are in a financial crisis then you WANT to believe that an optimistic story is true so you are more likely to fall for it.
I’ve posted the text of the Times article here: https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=SXX&share=Sirius-Minerals&thread=0640A4D5-1045-49BC-9576-8E306E865712
Part 2:
Mr Fraser, who is carrying out a strategic review of alternative funding options, said that he was “getting inundated with emails with all sorts of crazy ideas about how to finance the project”, including proposals for a retail bond issue. He dismissed the idea, saying: “We don’t think they have the capacity.”
Phil Thomas, director of London South East, said: “Bulletin boards definitely have a place as a research tool for today’s investors — to claim they should be shut down simply doesn’t make any sense.
“They are a medium for investors to share ideas — and there are some highly skilled investors that will share their opinions and experience for free. Equally, we know that you shouldn’t believe everything you read online and we strongly encourage our users not to make investments purely based on what they read on a forum.”
Clem Chambers, chief executive of ADVFN, said: “People who raise capital in public markets need to be prepared to be judged in the court of public opinion. Engaging with, rather than insulting, the private investor community would seem the more sensible way to proceed.”
The FCA declined to comment.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bf74c402-e93a-11e9-b84b-ece3c04125d8
Grab the popcorn.
It’s the lead article in the Business section.
Heading: Shut disgraceful online forums, says Sirius boss
Call for City watchdog to investigate bulletin boards.
Emily Gosden
12.01 a.m. Tuesday October 8 2019
Online shareholder chat forums are a “disgrace” and should be shut down, the boss of Sirius Minerals has claimed.
Chris Fraser said that the Financial Conduct Authority should investigate the bulletin boards where retail shareholders in Sirius and other companies discuss their investments.
Sirius has about 85,000 retail shareholders, some of whom have said that they have invested life savings in the North Yorkshire fertiliser mine developer.
“No investment adviser with a licence would tell you to do that,” Mr Fraser, Sirius’s chief executive, said, suggesting that some had been poorly advised after turning to the online forums. “They have these people sitting in their basements in their sweatpants, giving them investment advice — unregulated, unlicensed — and people follow them.”
The most prominent online share forums are London South East and ADVFN. Investors post thousands of messages a day, sharing details of their share trades or investment rationale and speculating about a company’s future.
Sirius Minerals wants to develop a huge mine under the North York Moors to produce polyhalite for use as a fertiliser, transporting it via a 23-mile underground conveyor belt for processing on Teesside.
The FTSE 250 company is one of the most popular equity investments in Britain with retail shareholders, who own almost half of the company. Its future is in the balance after it was forced to abandon a $3.8 billion financing plan last month when a crucial $500 million bond offering failed, sending its shares sharply lower. The afternoon before the announcement Sirius’s shares fell by more than 10 per cent. Mr Fraser said the company believed that this might have been triggered by a post on an online forum that falsely claimed it was about to announce an equity-raising. “Should the FCA be investigating? Yes, they should be,” he said.
The Sirius chief, 45, said it was “deeply concerning” that regulators did not address the forums where people were “holding themselves out as experts and giving investment advice”.
Mr Fraser said that he had “stopped reading [the websites] because they’re pretty depressing. You just feel so sorry for these people who’ve clearly not taken investment advice.”
He urged retail shareholders to “go and speak to a professional, otherwise it is gambling”, adding that no professional adviser would tell someone to “invest all of your money, all of your pension and everything you have in a stock like this”, which was a “high-risk but high-reward potential venture”.
Continued (there is a word limit per post and the article extends it).
While it’s about a different share, it’s relevant to all shares especially people who make unwarranted predictions about share price movements or who break true or fake insider/supposed insider information.
Part 2:
Mr Fraser, who is carrying out a strategic review of alternative funding options, said that he was “getting inundated with emails with all sorts of crazy ideas about how to finance the project”, including proposals for a retail bond issue. He dismissed the idea, saying: “We don’t think they have the capacity.”
Phil Thomas, director of London South East, said: “Bulletin boards definitely have a place as a research tool for today’s investors — to claim they should be shut down simply doesn’t make any sense.
“They are a medium for investors to share ideas — and there are some highly skilled investors that will share their opinions and experience for free. Equally, we know that you shouldn’t believe everything you read online and we strongly encourage our users not to make investments purely based on what they read on a forum.”
Clem Chambers, chief executive of ADVFN, said: “People who raise capital in public markets need to be prepared to be judged in the court of public opinion. Engaging with, rather than insulting, the private investor community would seem the more sensible way to proceed.”
The FCA declined to comment.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bf74c402-e93a-11e9-b84b-ece3c04125d8
Grab the popcorn.
It’s the lead article in the Business section.
Heading: Shut disgraceful online forums, says Sirius boss
Call for City watchdog to investigate bulletin boards.
Emily Gosden
12.01 a.m. Tuesday October 8 2019
Online shareholder chat forums are a “disgrace” and should be shut down, the boss of Sirius Minerals has claimed.
Chris Fraser said that the Financial Conduct Authority should investigate the bulletin boards where retail shareholders in Sirius and other companies discuss their investments.
Sirius has about 85,000 retail shareholders, some of whom have said that they have invested life savings in the North Yorkshire fertiliser mine developer.
“No investment adviser with a licence would tell you to do that,” Mr Fraser, Sirius’s chief executive, said, suggesting that some had been poorly advised after turning to the online forums. “They have these people sitting in their basements in their sweatpants, giving them investment advice — unregulated, unlicensed — and people follow them.”
The most prominent online share forums are London South East and ADVFN. Investors post thousands of messages a day, sharing details of their share trades or investment rationale and speculating about a company’s future.
Sirius Minerals wants to develop a huge mine under the North York Moors to produce polyhalite for use as a fertiliser, transporting it via a 23-mile underground conveyor belt for processing on Teesside.
The FTSE 250 company is one of the most popular equity investments in Britain with retail shareholders, who own almost half of the company. Its future is in the balance after it was forced to abandon a $3.8 billion financing plan last month when a crucial $500 million bond offering failed, sending its shares sharply lower. The afternoon before the announcement Sirius’s shares fell by more than 10 per cent. Mr Fraser said the company believed that this might have been triggered by a post on an online forum that falsely claimed it was about to announce an equity-raising. “Should the FCA be investigating? Yes, they should be,” he said.
The Sirius chief, 45, said it was “deeply concerning” that regulators did not address the forums where people were “holding themselves out as experts and giving investment advice”.
Mr Fraser said that he had “stopped reading [the websites] because they’re pretty depressing. You just feel so sorry for these people who’ve clearly not taken investment advice.”
He urged retail shareholders to “go and speak to a professional, otherwise it is gambling”, adding that no professional adviser would tell someone to “invest all of your money, all of your pension and everything you have in a stock like this”, which was a “high-risk but high-reward potential venture”.
Continued (there is a word limit per post and the article extends it).