Member Info for CloudyMountain

You keep your shares and don’t receive the £8.50.

The offer details say that if you keep your shares, you may be unable to sell them. I don’t know if that’s scaremongering but I thought I’d tell you.

“Any idea what Thungela shares could be worth if there are 140 million shares in issue?”

Yes. £2.08-£2.60.

How did I get that? The Times today reports:

“Thungela accounts for a relatively small chunk of its assets, revenues and profits. The new business is expected to have a market value of perhaps $400-500 million, as against Anglo’s valuation of more than $50 billion”

$400-$500 million divided by 140 million shares = $2.86-$3.57 per share. At current exchange rates that’s £2.08-£2.60.

The Times says that that is its expected market value and qualifies the range with “perhaps” so expect some variation in those figures.

I agree. I expect the takeover will fail.

SP movement is harder to predict, and a rise can turn into a fall if the market in general is having a negative day. I believe that the offer is less than the true value and therefore that the SP will rise.

That’s such a refreshing change compared to what we are used to. For example, here’s a quote from Nofear on Monday 15/3/21 (i.e. 2 days before the results) at 0223.

0223?!

“...Finally, my crystal ball it's showing Monday morning Cpi making a steady rise towards 49p with continuing climb breaking the 50.9p barrier by close of trading day. For Tuesday, Cpi will continue the climb towards 53.5p and closing at 54p by end of trading day. We will open on Wednesday on better than expected FY 2020 results with a share price gap to 63p and continuing towards 66p by end of Wednesday trading day. We shall continue with Thursday opening at 67.5p and attempt to break the 69p but it will not succeed. In the following two weeks, the Cpi shares prices will attempt to break the 69p barrier on many occassions but it will find resistance and eventually give up and will make a retreat down towards 63.4p and will hoover occasionally around and near the 60.4p and 61.9p price ranges. From here and there on, every man and every woman would had decided to stay with Cpi till the when the half year 2021 is released or sell up and invest elsewhere. Cheers Guys & Gals”.

He did then add that it was fiction - before saying it might happen:

“Please DYOR as the above its only a fiction run of the Cpi Shares price movements and these events might never happened but could happen as I've based the possibility of these fictional events on the way the Cpi shares have behaved in the past six months”.

I like the “occassions”, “every man and every woman would had decided...”, “these events might never happened but could happen” and the share price “hoovering”. Can’t spell but can predict the stock market!

From the article: “The take-private bid has been based on the argument that shareholders do not have the appetite for the risks of the Baimskaya mine development in eastern Siberia, where costs have risen from $5.5 billion to $8 billion”.

If you don’t have the appetite for the risk, you sell your shares. By definition, shareholders still holding are happy to run the risk.

I’m not so sure RBC are right at all. We shall see. It’s a shame that the opinion drop-down box doesn’t have an option for “I’m not selling”.

Takeover offers are normally at a premium yet Peel Hunt believe that the shares are worth “at least £9.20 per share”. My personal opinion is that, while you can never predict the future, I want to keep my shares, hope that the offer fails and see if the predictions about a supercycle come true. Supercycle or no supercycle, the price of copper should increase. There’s always risk but I bought the shares as I positively welcome the risk (and the reward).

Headline: Kaz Minerals bid raised to £4.1bn

The two biggest shareholders in Kaz Minerals have increased their offer for the copper miner to £4.1 billion and declared they will raise it no further.

The Kazakhstan-focused miner said that an independent committee of its board had backed the 850p-a-share offer that, together with the promise of a special dividend, has a total value of 869p.

Oleg Novachuk, Kaz’s chairman and former chief executive, and Vladimir Kim, a director and former chairman, own just over 39 per cent of the company and have been seeking to take it private since October, when their initial 640p-a-share offer was recommended by the board.

That was increased to 780p a share last month after opposition from minority shareholders and the rally in copper prices. However, shareholder acceptances stand at less than 60 per cent, well short of the 75 per cent needed for the offer to pass.

Novachuk said that the final offer “fully reflects” the change in “copper market dynamics” since October. The take-private bid has been based on the argument that shareholders do not have the appetite for the risks of the Baimskaya mine development in eastern Siberia, where costs have risen from $5.5 billion to $8 billion.

Kaz was floated in 2005 as Kazakhmys. It operates mines in Kazakhstan and one in Kyrgyzstan. It reported revenues of $2.4 billion last year and pre-tax profits of $804 million.

Analysts at Peel Hunt, the broker, said that the new offer “again looks like a mark-to-market adjustment, given the share performance of other copper producers rather than including a control premium”. They believed that Kaz was worth at least 920p a share. They did not believe that the offer represented a “knockout blow”.

Analysts at RBC expected the bid to be successful, “considering the recent volatility and slowing momentum of the copper price”, which meant that the increase “should provide enough incentive for investors to tender at the 75 per cent level”.

Kaz shares rose 24p, or 2.9 per cent, to 864p yesterday.

I never thought I’d experience a takeover bid where you feel as if you are haggling in a bazaar in a tourist district of a Third World city. Tiny increments in price, yet every time still feeling you’re being taken for a ride, and that ludicrous line about urging us to accept the (former) increased offer as soon as possible.

@shakhtar: I agree. I think that the offer has been like a foot on the SP, holding it down. It should increase significantly once the takeover has failed.

The premium for the new offer is negligible and a fraction of the premium normally associated with takeovers.

When the offer was first made, I felt it was trying to snatch an undervalued company away from us. I was annoyed but thought it’d succeed. I’m delighted it hasn’t (so far, anyway).

Fortunately the offer was a few months too late considering the SP movement since then. They may have got away with it had they made it earlier.

I’m not selling. I wish there was an option on the form of telling them where to put it. As one article on the takeover said, “Misers pay twice”.

“Today Is the deadline for the “fantastic offer” to expire isn’t it ?”

You mean the “We’ll buy your £8.30-ish shares for £7.80” offer? Yes.

That should be: “I bet they do! Not only because the offer is at a discount but also because at present the SP is trending upwards”.

Here’s what “NoFear” - no, he shouts, it’s “NOFEAR” - said on 8/3/21:

“...Just to be truthful with everyone, I do expect that the 2020 FY results will come good and will give us an 8am gap into the 60p plus share price ranges. Be prepared to be surprised and have you (sic) take profit stops arranged ahead. As you know with all the good news expected, the MM's will close the gates to deal with the rush of profit takers wanting out and new buyers wanting in...”

The offer of £7.80 is approximately 10% below the current share price, which means Nova is in effect offering to buy £10 notes for £9. Now that’s what I call a bargain!

“Kaz Minerals shareholders who have not yet accepted the increased [what wonderful spin!] offer and who wish to do so are urged to do so as soon as possible” the company said Wednesday. I bet they do! Not only because the offer is at a discount but at present the SP is trending upwards.

I’m tempted to buy lots of new shares at £8.55 and sell them to Nova for £7.80. I can then quit work and live off the proceeds.

... the system clearly doesn’t accept emoticons as it converted it into “??”. Just as well as I was struggling to find an emoticon for Nova “extracting the urine”.

The “??” was a laughing emoticon. It seemed appropriate.

“This is a 22% premium to the original 640p per share offer price announced October 2020”

... and a 10% discount to the current price of approximately 854p ??

@Know0: “Thats not ramping - I am showing my workings”

Hi Know0. I wasn’t referring to you.

I haven’t mentioned my concern before because I didn’t want to upset the BB. I’m just concerned that some people might be drawn in by the predictions of the skies raining unicorns & gold ingots.

@Bloodpressure:“I expected more of a rise too...”

Hopefully people might start to realise that some people on here have been ramping, causing others to have unrealistic expectations.

“Special dividend? Is this anticipation?”

I would be astounded if that were true. If the news is good, I’d expect and hope that they’d pay off debt rather than pay a special dividend. I’d consider it foolish and a sign of poor management if they did the latter.

I have no idea what will happen tomorrow - I’m not going to ramp or spread fear. I just ride the waves.

Too many “offers” - sorry. A bit like Nova!