The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Well said and I agree Phil.
Following the money and directors interests though, I see that now Olav and Michael have their first third tranche of share options with three years to exercise, (based on 2019 annual report note 11 to the directors remuneration report. Ie 33.3% vest when first patient is administered with ReNeuron cell therapy in a sixth clinical test). The additional 33,3% vest on completion of the fourth clinical trial of a therapy. (I think this could happen this year), the final 33.3% is based on Total shareholder Return (TSR) of the company meets or exceeds that of the AIM Healthcare Index in any three year period from date of grant. So if a deal was to be of the size of £62m as referee to as a reference by Olav of what is possible in past the share price could be up 4 fold and therefore mean they are all fully granted. Then you’ll see a deal with a large Pharma happening. So it all seems feasible but third tranche grant will only occur of the deal pushes the price high all is possible but timing and values will be linked here. As they will want the most growth from their exercise price when share were granted but not yet exercised. Just my personal view, but worthy of examining what’s in the directors interest?!!!
Thank you PhilBanks this is indeed very insightful and provides further rationale to future asset value adjustment.
The Sunday Times ran a special section on ‘Sustainable Investment’ and covered the growing importance of ESG (environmental, social and governance) how the major institutions are assessing companies on their ESG which will determine values. Quoting “Those with a measurable negative impact, either societally through creating poor health or when it comes carbon impact, are having a tougher period; the world is going through a transition” Health an the emergence of cell based therapeutic treatments has the potential to effect major change on the health sector reducing consequential impact costs to society. ReNeuron is just such a company with life changing treatments. The UK has the potential to be a leader in ESG particularly the achievements of the health sector as demonstrated by our Oxford vaccine and our regulatory approval efficiencies. So to have the IPSC’s highlighted here has further bolstered my resolve on the medium to long term value in ReNeuron. As more people become aware of the potential and understand what underlining assets ReNeuron has we will see major step changes. These cell therapeutic treatments have the potential to save our health system considerable cost in the future. The ReNeuron board should start to relate their business to ESG factors.
I was always struck by the gentleman on BBC breakfast who got out of his wheelchair resultant from CTX stroke treatment.
I am not sure this technology is comparable as my understanding of CTX it can potentially bring movement back to those who have had paralasis for a number of years by growing new cells for connection in the damaged part of the brain. The BrainQ has to be implemented within a few weeks of the stroke. the article you are referring to but didn't post is - https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/brainq-gets-fda-breakthrough-status-for-its-device-for-reducing-disability-following-stroke-301226735.html - The currently-approved interventions for reducing global disability after a stroke, including medical and surgical options, are relevant only in the first few hours following stroke. Only about 5% of victims in the US currently arrive at the hospital in time to benefit from these treatments. BrainQ aims to extend this window of opportunity from the acute phase to the sub-acute phase, offering a treatment that can be used in the days and weeks following stroke, helping the wider stroke population who have residual disability.
Anyone catch the news this morning I only heard last bit re Parkinson stem cell treatment, I seem to remember ReNeuron was partnering with an unnamed pharma to explore use of exosomes, maybe just being too hopeful - all I could find is - https://www.anova-irm.com/en/treatments/neurodegenerative-diseases/parkinson-s-disease-pd?msclkid=c45af3a41edc134747379387bf012f71&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=WG%20-%20Europe%20-%20Parkinsons%20-%20BMM&utm_term=%2Bparkinsons%20%2Btreatment&utm_content=Parkinsons%20Treatment
Chester, PhilBanks, Hear, hear... This is a good and increasingly well balanced notice board (I remember the vitriol comments vexed at Freddie a few years ago, which was wrong and sad) and I am glad to say this is not the case now. I believe it is more enthusiasm to express each views, I find it interesting to read the different and well argued perspectives in order to challenge my own thinking. But with any wise investment do my own research and make my own decisions. ReNeuron can be frustrating, particularly as I decided to follow the Warren Buffet mantra and have not traded this share rather averaged out. I am hoping that as UK Plc becomes a possible hub for science/medical innovation that improved timelines for new drug therapies will improve learning lessons from Covid-19. And just hope we are able to coax an exciting deal with an American Pharma.. Best to everyone.
Interesting that this morning as at 10.53 am 21 sales, no purchases yet the share price is up 1.5p?
Maybe there is a buyer who the brokers have in place to pick up and will be shown later, another indication of more interest in ReNeuron. We just have to be patient and await news flow.
Thumbs up emoji became ?? Sorry just wanted to say thanks
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I share your position chester18, and have continued to buy to average out but still am 44% off, however, after much research and reflection remain firm. I would refer back to parts of my earlier posting as with any business it is the quality of the product that will sustain and create value.
‘…with £17.5m and directors notably Sir Chris Evans committing additional £1m. CONTROL LIES WITH A FEW WHO WILL DETERMINE VALUE/DEAL STEPS. I still believe it will be the science and the products explored which will sustain this company. It will come down to transparent but smart news flow closely followed up, so shareholders see and believe the bigger picture and remain holding. If Exosome Platform and RP come right to the table of inflection points published in December presentation several deals by individual pharma companies will see this business take on a more robust position.
Whatever we say here it will be speculation, no matter how well our rationale maybe. I will relook at the timing and rules of the issue for Olac and Michael’s share options. These may provide insight to any deadline for the more significant value deals may occur (I think they had a three-year period to take up with three sets of objective requirement).
Suffice to say my speculation is we won’t know, but the company/larger investors will determine the value point that they exit with a full sale and put to the rest of the shareholders. The shares could be suspended pending the outcome of a negotiation, but this is not for some time as the more data supporting efficacy will increase the value point. I firmly believe Exosomes are a wild card which could overtake everything else and with three prospects in play, may determine a buyout as per Sparks. Again my perspective, which is speculation and hope.
Good luck to us all and let us keep a respective tone as all views welcomed and embraced to help support or challenge our thinking.
Apologies it was PhilBanks who posted the Edison update
Grizzyb Thanks for posting, I was struck by the Edison 15/01/21 report, particularly the section on competitors and the comparisons paragraph section on: ‘Spark Therapeutics (Roche) has the one approved (2018) product, Luxturna. It sells for £613,410 per treatment (ex-tax) in the UK and treats both eyes in patients with recessive RPE65-associated Leber congenital amaurosis mutations. The mutation is rare, about 2% of RP cases. Spark sold $21.2m of Luxturna (net of rebates) in H119 before its acquisition by Roche for $4.3bn. The high deal value was due to the potential of Spark’s technology in conditions such as haemophilia’.
Clearly ReNeuron has much potential with a range of treatments which could eventually appeal to an outright purchase in the order of the Sparks example with Roche. A £4.3bn CAPITALISATION/BUYOUT WOULD PUT RENEURON AT CIRCA £76 A SHARE. ALL IS POSSIBLE AND GOOD THAT THESE POINTS ARE NOW BEING MADE AWARE TO THE INVESTMENT COMMUNITY. Something to ponder on I think.
Todays Clinical Update RNS is excellent and well put together, it reflects greater professionalism in crafting communication to reaffirm commitments made in their 20/12/20 presentation. I think we can expect a more considered ReNeuron now with the narrative tightly managed and considered. The new board appointments and investors is a major change, we have a year plan for important milestones, and with end of year looming (March) a well timed exosome technology platform licensing deal with one or more of the three large pharmaceutical companies will bolster finances and future capital wealth. I wish you all well for a prosperous New Year with the new ReNeuron....
Hi zahirmiahoutlook, whilst I share your enthusiasm I would wish a more cautious position as this share has been a roller coaster over the past few years. With speculators building hope to take short term gains. Having invested in early 2015 I have not sold but acquired to average out my break even. I for one hope for more stability and a slower rise based on real value achievements. We have to understand the reflection points will be good clinical advancements backed by the commercial reality of value add (deals) for the business. For those who can see this through to 2022 and on to 2024 will potentially see considerable wealth growth.
Whilst we see a considerable sell-off, as certain holders take small short term profits, what is pleasing and encouraging is that the SP is holding up as these shareholders are replaced by firmer stratic holders who recognise the longer-term value. The Warren Buffet philosophy of investment.
Phil, Thank you for your knowledgable input it helps to reassure, certainly we seem to be at a potential turning point and hope the 6 January interims and update adds grist to the forward momentum. I also echo the point about positive new posters, good to see and hear all views. Best of luck to us all for a prosperous New Year.
The main new institutions involved have I believe bought after Woodford at around £2.40 but will have averaged down as a result of 1 for 2 shares they took up as part of the closed issue for £15m, So logic tells me their average is down by a third at circa £1.58. So what is an acceptable/expected return for them if it were around 5+ times their investment = £7.9, this would value ReNeuron at around £450m. Dependent on CTX progress/position by 2022 we could see a deal to buyout ReNeuron at a higher price. Appreciating this is just my logic but useful to understand and speculate on larger shareholders expectations. This may help us longer holders who are still in negative territory find comfort to what can still happen and relatively quickly now. Clearly a lot has happened and will now depend on clinical progress but with large controlling shareholding amongst the few we hopefully we now minimise the roller coaster ride of the past SP. Obviously we can dream it will far exceed even this projection but for now this seams pragmatic. Fingers crossed for us all. Wishing everybody a Happy Xmas and a prosperous ReNeuron New Year.
I don't understand why people are selling in the numbers seen over the past few days? By my calculation, the enlarged share issue to 56.85m at 73p equates to £41.5m. i.e. existing cash announced at interims was £9m + Fosum £1m and proceeds of circa £17m = £27m, so the value, 15 patents etc and goodwill of efforts to date amount to £14m? Crazzy even with poor uptake of open offer of the £2.5m. Improved marketing and communications are required to demonstrate management have an effective strategy for ROI to investors. We need inspirational leadership, a good storyteller at ReNeuron to muster support and belief. Is this reflective of exec directors only investing one month's salary in the offering, accepting that non-execs have stepped up?
I know and share a lot of the frustrations smaller shareholders have experienced but I was reminded of why I originally invested in ReNeuron because of the science and what this new approach potentially could do. This article published on BBC News website brought that focus back - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55045487 I would recommend all share and read it as this is something ReNeuron maybe able to change. Keep the faith, I would like to think ReNeuron would know about this young lady and maybe help her by engaging her to write about the condition and experience I would love to see her on the trial.
Interims were announced on 6 December last year, so speculation would be they are working on a number of fronts to announce a package of arrangements (progress along with some suitable short term funding/loan initiative or indeed a deal) to tie them over and bring back some stability to the SP which I am sure is hampering fund raising options. With 15 patents approved now and the great advancements in the science ReNeuron represents as a new breed of medical treatments. By January post Brexit and Covid-19 vaccine progress, we should see greater opportunity to conclude a better arrangement on all fronts. So patience is the key word for us a smaller investors. I just stick to why I invested because of the science and still believe these virtues and values will realise exponential wealth for the business. 20+ years of R&D and £142m+ investment and grants to-date is defiantly not represented in the current SP.
The Report & Accounts published full version is now available at the ReNeuron web site home page http://www.reneuron.com to download and does now present the benefits to improving patients' lives along with market opportunity value for each therapeutic stem cell treatment. To me, it appears the new focus and change in board members are the catalyst for more constructive considered communication to the ReNeuron proposition both in their technology, patents and commercial value.