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Catch 22, China represents 18.47% of world’s population so is this a fair representation of value for ReNe technology, it will be determined I guess by details of the deal. How this will reflect on other deal negotiations is my concern. Interesting to gain others views, or have I become cynical. Desperate to find positives here.
I agree Phil, but the most important situation is for the business to show some commercial reality, whilst these management positions are an interesting news story they cannot hide or provide substance without a viable commercial deal now being put on the table to demonstrate value, even if they come to the table to explain why and when this will happen and the justifiable reasons laying out their clear strategy. The board needs to provide evidence to build back value to ensure capital value and soon…
As an LTS, I am, like many others, very disillusioned with the poor SP performance is this a failure to convey the confidence of a pending deal and the value they will bring to the business, even transparency to the options of securing a licensing offer now or waiting a bit longer for more conclusive clinical proof to gain more value. Communicating this stance may have provided shareholders with a rationale for holding on. A drifting and declining share price make negotiations harder to extract value as buyers smell weakness in the position.
I remember attending an AGM back in 2017/18 and asking questions of the CEO about licensing out their technology at the time as a means of generating revenue to provide shareholder value (ahead of this becoming a reality). I remember the response; 1/. Why would we do that when we can make more value alone, 2/. The share value was dismissed with the comment the SP will be what it will be.
Twenty-five plus years with over circa £170m investment/grants to-date, we are valued at fastly approaching £40m capitilisation heading into a long quite period over the holiday break. An additional Covid-19 variant potentially bringing further delays to trials will make conclusion of a deal difficult and as time dwindles and cash reserves are used, we have a catch 22 scenerio even more likly, particularly as the last issue offer price of 70 pence maybe breached soon.
I now believe the board should consider a plan B now to prevent a future fire sale or further dillution to the LTS shareholder base, seek either a quick lower value licence deal now to secure a two year overhead cover, explaining this to shareholders. Alternativly seeking a sale of the business to a large pharma on basis of becoming their R&D department to new and emerging cell therepeutics!
Commercial creativity is needed from the CEO/Board to demonstrate commercial prudence. I have high hopes for the new Chairman, who has flagged the commercial reality needed.
It is the old adage plan for the worse hope for the best. With a strengthening of the board, a new era of commercial reality will hopefully prevail.
In times of crisis of confidence a step by the board as we are out of a closed period in buying shares in the business would be another confidence step showing believe in themselves, not relying on just the share options.
I sincerly hope my views find there way to the board/ceo as the next steps taken are critical to rebuilding confidence. I could however, be totally wrong in my assumptions and a £60m deal will be announced in January, either way a response to the market is needed. Is this a crises of confindence? please share your views.
Interesting to read the FT and see that a new UK Biotech start up Quell Therapeutics has raised in an oversubscribbed issue $156m. So the appetite is out there. They are funding the LIBERATE Phase 1/2 clinical trial of QEL-001, a first-in-class antigen-specific multi-modular CAR-Treg cell therapy candidate designed to prevent organ rejection in liver transplant patients by inducing durable immune tolerance and eliminating the need for lifelong immunosuppression. Reference link - https://www.finsmes.com/2021/11/quell-therapeutics-raises-156m-in-series-b-financing.html
Hopefully we gain a positive steer at tomorrows ReNeuron interim results annoucement!
True words Phil, Rene have so much in play at the moment and their management will equally be frustrated at lack of market confidence but as the press coverage today for Silence Therapeutics states today - ‘Data and clinical progress will be the catalysts, says London broker’ reference - https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/966367/silence-therapeutics-data-and-clinical-progress-will-be-the-catalysts-says-london-broker-966367.html
With our new Chairman and FD we can be experiencing similar road map, yes they have large cash on balance sheet and are now moving off AIM to Nasdaq - who knows where we maybe just need data and deal to make the step change.
We usually can expect a preliminary interim announcement on or around week commencing 6/12, and this would be the time with all new management positions in place to inform on strategically important milestones - in particular a heads up on deal progress and likely timings….??
Yes I agree its a good observation Phil, its all speculation as this first commercial deal structure could be creativily constructed in many different ways and may also include an equity or loan fund raise from one or more of the pharma partners with the skills onboard and the new fd in place who has a track record of 6/7 times return. Nice we have a number of pharma options one of which may want to get first option lock out on a purchase? We will just have to wait but at least momentum is now in our favour for an upward movement on the SP.
This latest RNS is exciting as it demonstrates their core technologies versatility to be adapted to other serious diseases ‘cancer’ and should demonstrate the enormous potential for value. However, until the first sensible commercial deal is struck, we will not see a step-change in the share value. ReNeuron has appealed to many traders who have been able to influence rises, and benefit from small profit taking and sell-off, making short term gains, resulting in price dropping back. At some point past a sensible set of deals, this will stop. The brokers should increase the range between the offer and bid to encourage investors, not traders, to hold. The increasing RNS news flow does show increasing confidence and that we can expect some several deal to be achieved soon. Fingers crossed.
Reference past post 3m share options with conditions which are fair and send out a positive message to the market - past post ‘Now we have new key management in place, the ability to incentivise, with share options to be awarded from this new block, is highly encouraging and is an indication that timing is near for crucial value changes. The terms of an award, I hope, reflect the last two remaining conditions as per those in place for Olav, i.e. clinical trial phase approval and significant deal. The AGM next week should provide us with a more transparent understanding of the progress. It would be most helpful to have a target date for agreements to be concluded as real shareholder value will start to be realised.
Great to see this latest RNS, which should leave us in no doubt that a deal is imminent. reference
I think a lot of people will regret the day they sold. Do your research, make your own decisions based on your belief and be prepared to see it through. I am as confident today as I was in 2015, not sold a share but added to average out. It was reading Warren Buffet’s book “The Making of an American Capitalist” that gave men the confidence to back my own research. Something dramatic is coming, be prepared to hold even with reasonable gains the best is yet to come.
Now we have new key management in place, the ability to incentivise, with share options to be awarded from this new block is highly encouraging and is an indication that timing is near for crucial value changes. The terms of an award, I hope, reflect the last two remaining conditions as per those in place for Olav, i.e. clinical trial phase approval and significant deal. The AGM next week should provide us with a more transparent understanding of the progress. It would be most helpful to have a target date for agreements to be concluded as real shareholder value will start to be realised.
I actually saw this as very positive and interesting to see that this is Iain’s first appointment to strengthen the board, great to have such an experienced lady on board, understand the position re 3 failures but I see this as knowing the pitfalls and experience that can help us. I hope I am right but actually feel very positive that we have somebody of Iain’s Calibre on board assisting Olav, help relieve the pressure on his shoulders and give some substance to the commercial deal set up. Next 6 months will tell. Best of luck to us all here.
Interesting in further researching Iain Ross who is actually executive Chairman at Silence Therapeutics (market cap £554m) who have a US subsidiary with a Nasdaq quote, with Astra Zeneca invested $20m into ST, with further ¢40m payment made in 2019. They have a number of deals (3 I believe) in place with projected payments which could bring a further $400m. It therefore seems perfectly logical to see a bigger deal merger with a share swap occurring at some stage in the future upon ReNe gaining traction and deals to increase our valuation, give some return to longer holding shareholders, but still allow them to be part of a larger more robust entity to take on and finance cell and gene therapeutic treatments. Clearly this is just one option and only my personal observation and highly speculative, so please bear that in mind it is not a recommendation for any of you to buy more. But thought it was telling that Iain Ross had stated in release he owns no shares in ReNe. Lot of synergy here between the two businesses where ST have a good team in place. Iain, since he joined ST their share price is up 742% in 2 years and 4 months. See their results 30.03.21 - https://silence-therapeutics.com/investors/press-releases/press-releases-details/2021/Silence-Therapeutics---REPLACEMENT-Silence-Reports-Full-year-2020-Results/default.aspx. Whilst it is interesting to speculate that is all it is but at least it gives ReNe a better more interesting prospect with Astra Zeneca potentially being the ultimate acquirer in the medium term as this is a clever cost effective way of developing new products in unmet health treatment needs. Be interested to get others thoughts who will be more technically aware of the medical comparisons. Welcome receiving views.
Agreed Phil all is looking towards an upside in next 12 months I firmly believe if you see my last post I have a link to Silence Therapeutics results 30.03.21 which is very encouraging. Iain is non Exec Chairman their and the=re is much synergy between the two operations and they have a deal with Astra Zenica so who knows what interesting opportunities may exist. Best wishes and good luck to us all.
Prospero17, ReNe certainly has been plagued by lack of good PR and events like Woodford and management of communications etc. However, I do believe the RNS this morning with Iain Ross’s appointment is a signal of times are changing, this on the back of the appointment of Dr Stefano Pluchino as Chief Scientific Officer is sending the right message to the market. Worth noting Iain is also non exec Chairman of Silence Therapeutics which are to dissimilar to ReNe and since he joined their share price is uop 742% in 2 years and 4 months. See their results 30.03.21 - https://silence-therapeutics.com/investors/press-releases/press-releases-details/2021/Silence-Therapeutics---REPLACEMENT-Silence-Reports-Full-year-2020-Results/default.aspx. So for all of us patient long standing shareholders I do believe things are changing wioth stronger management. The no2 in the Finance department just needs to be clai=rified if he takes over or not. Bu=t I am heartened by their recent appointments which do bode well for the future. Keep the faith we will be rewarded.
Iain Ross new Chairman RNS announcement this morning; Fantastic news for us all to have such an experienced and well connected new Chairman is instaslling confidence, I particularly like the comments he made "I am delighted to be joining Reneuron at such a pivotal time and look forward to working with the Board & Management and to ensuring a significant uplift in shareholder value over the next few years." If this doesn’t give confidence to hold ReNe then I dontr know what will. Well done Olav.
Phil, Thanks for this (some very useful info posted of late cheers), I believe we have news coming but timing maybe to coincide with other programmed expected RNS’s regardfless of delay ie 1/. June we should get notification of pending date for YE prelims announced. 2/. Preliminary Y.E. results, announced with webcast - normally 11.07. 3/. August announce AGM date + annual report. 4/. AGM in September. 5/. December interim results announced around 6/12. Clearly we are in need of RP issue on treatment infection, commercial progress in that I mean a firm deal plus update on other deal progress would be nice. Plus some confirmation of whether Michael no2 is taking over or a new candidate. So it should be a steady flow you would expect particularly as we have Richard Griffiths giving som much support.
The RNS no 3902C confirming that Richard Griffiths has extended his investment from 7.15% to 8% is a big confidence booster for ReNeuron in showing firm support. I suspect we are close to some interesting news.
Thanks Phil, this is very detailed and does show the potential I agree but the company needs to become more transparent and expose some of the dealings or at least deliver one or two for the confidence to be restored. Indeed deals are like the trials, negotiations are protracted and have I am sure certain milestones to become real and tangible but just like trials they could be summarised with indication of expectation, even without stating names. All we have to go on is to Re look at signed nda agreements going back to 2018, but I cannot reliably confirm how many there are let alone if they have fallen by the wayside? I hope the new PR agency picks up or is monitoring these notice boards to relate back for consideration.