Member Info for Cliostock

Oh yes, one thing SBTX is not short of its potential. We also have a strong scientific team and an excellent CEO. Theoretically as we progress through development and commercialisation of the 5 pillars the market cap should have reason to keep rising. Of course at the moment 1bn market cap is a pipe dream but back to 100m is very achievable short term if the implications and clues become reality.

Sounds plausible Bel, hopefully those sellers are still aware of the benefits of owning the quality company behind the share price action and will want to buy back in once it is confirmed we are back on the up.

Look forward to hearing that Elric, don’t keep us hanging on for too long!

I think it could be as simple as this… A man who is not on the board will not have any new information. However, a man who was once on the board, I.e SOH, will certainly hold more information than a man who was not, I.e us, and TW. Also not being on the board he is now at liberty to speculate with his ‘educated guesses’, after all he is now just a vested shareholder like we are.

Good links Aquae, thanks. The Croda one made me stop and think about how with this kind of worldwide presence from Croda, Skinbiotix could be available on every corner of the globe relatively easily if Croda’s customers adopt it into their formulations. The other link explains in great detail why there is a high probability they will!

If there is one thing I can not understand it’s people who actively ‘deramp’ a share unless they actually intend to purchase it imminently. This whole situation about the man who follows TW’s shares around discrediting them… Wow his life must be so empty that I genuinely feel sorry for him. We all lose out from time to time in every aspect of our lives and we must just dust ourselves down and move on upwards. I can’t imagine the discontent that being stuck in that mindset must bring. TW is obviously living in his head rent free. Anyone putting someone or something down over the long term is the one who is losing out in reality, whatever trouble they do or don’t cause!

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. An investing cliche maybe, but the underlying lesson may apply. The price is free falling because of sentiment. I believe what Stuart says, and in his last interview with Elric he was VERY clear. “No information leaks from this company, it never has and it never will”. So we know people are selling based on their thoughts and fears, not material facts, because there aren’t any material facts out there about sales of Axis or Croda progress. Yes, the board should certainly be thinking hard about how to address this investor sentiment, but don’t be fooled into thinking this isn’t exactly the same company it was when the price was at 75p. Would you have sold your shares for 32p when the price was at 75p? The only thing that has changed are those thoughts and fears.

Well isn’t this turning into a battle with one’s own cajones! Thanks to whoever offloaded the 150k shares in short sharp blocks today!

Although we are suffering very much at the moment, I do feel I know the business well enough to take a balanced view from a few paces back… I remain committed to the company and the entity it is sure to become years, or even months from now. There are some very accurate comments on today’s postings, such as pointing out the SP does not reflect company performance (of course it does long term, but not in this situation) and that the markets are irrational. Those that sell now at a loss are certainly lining the pockets of a braver and/or better researched investor.

Another holder that’s not concerned. I have been in this position before with other companies and have felt a sense of dread. Here I feel I’ve invested diligently, researched properly and am not in a rush to get the money out. So I’m fine. I’m seeing this fall as an opportunity to buy bits as and when I want to. I’m not trying to say I’m doubling up or anything rampish but I’m slowly adding.

You’re totally right Bel, the boards are a great opportunity for the wider community to find out about things that aren’t necessarily worthy of an RNS. My Dad is a member of the Itaconix board and those guys investigate and find that the company’s IP is used in all sorts. It is supposed to be a plant based polymer for cosmetics, but the investors have found their product in paint and other items. Presumably due to an NDA there was no RNS so the investors wouldn’t have known. With 57.3% of SBTX shares in public hands the findings and ideas on this board probably do influence the share price more than we would like to admit. There is usually a rise of between 2-5% after Elric has spoken to Stuart if the tone is of progress or reassurance.

Yes I think you’re right the royalty will be on Croda’s price to the beauty brand not the product retail price. Great sleuthing work with the online rep. How did she come to ask you about the lysate, I take it you asked first and she engaged with you? Wonder why availability timescales would be guarded if they otherwise discussed the lysate with you?

Aqua, not 10% specifically, just circa 10%. It has been said that double digit royalties will occur. It could be higher than 10%, but I didn’t want to exaggerate the possibility of it being more.

Bel, going back to SA’s reply to your email - he comments that Croda’s recent announcement makes us even more attractive to partner with. Does this indicate that this is how SA sees this going? Partnership? Whilst on this BB we seem at risk of tying ourselves in knots over how attractive we look for a takeover, we must remember that Croda have an open door to SBTX and are probably likely to get first refusal of suitable technologies engineered by SBTX. The deal on Skinbiotix has been put together with Croda investing 5m in a production facility, with circa 10% royalties paid to SBTX. Compared to an acquisition, continuing to do business like this is low risk and low headache for Croda with way way way less investment capital needed and still getting to keep in the region of 90% of the revenue. This leaves SBTX to continue with the Axis suite of products including targeting the acne arena, whatever is to follow from the other pillars and generally becoming a royalty collecting machine from current and future agreements with Croda. I would argue that this outcome is more likely based on current and correct information we have which has actually been released to market, as opposed to our speculation.

My jumble thoughts on both sides of the coin. It’s a good company. It’s AIM. It’s volatile. It can’t have continued on the same trajectory as up to the trial results or it would be £17.86 a share by now. We’re in a slow news period. The soft launch hasn’t been exciting enough for the market. It’s sad that it’s dropped so much, but it has. Investing is a marathon not a sprint. Nobody here can judge Stuart’s plan, they don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes or what the next 3 months will bring. The only person that can judge the team properly is god. And, well, Croda.

Am I right in saying Croda have around 700 million from the sale of their other division? You’re right Belgrano the signs are there. Horrible timing for us investors that the SP is so low at the moment but we know how quick it can move and if I’ve ever seen anything that make a share price move, it’s been substantiated rumours. The most recent I can think of was Morrison’s. Can anyone more experienced let me know what role Stuart would play in setting the price of any kind of Croda bid? Or how much influence he would have over the price?

I like his use of the word ‘only’ when talking about subscription numbers. It shows where his head is at. It’s not ‘we need to achieve 2,200’, it’s ‘we only need 2,200’. It reads as dismissive, which is superb in the context.

Clever thing is, the company never revealed any forecasts or expectations so they don’t have to inform the market if true sales figures fall short of, or exceed, any given estimates. I’ve read a couple of times recently on this board that posters are not seeing any marketing or media attention like it’s a bad thing. For me it means everything is going to plan. If the team wanted to sell 500 boxes and only sold 100, that is when we would be likely to see marketing and press releases. Remembering SA has lots of marketing and product launch experience, he’s not likely to be sat on his laurels wondering what is going wrong and doing nothing. If he is not marketing heavily, it’s because he doesn’t want to market heavily.

Very sensible post and there seems to be a small band of us here with similar sentiments. I’m sure at some point in the next few years there will be more fund managers that feel the same and take up some of the free float as the company becomes more established and grows in revenue. For me that’s a pleasant place to be, not a frustrating one. The ups and downs are all part of the fun!

Ody, it’s been obvious over the last couple of months that you have taken umbrage over the way SA deals with the investors/news/updating markets. You must be very bullish on the prospects of the company to still be invested and still frequent this board, otherwise you simply wouldn’t put up with it. If I see something I think is a red flag in a company I’m gone, even if I really like other parts, because there’s thousands of other companies out there to look at. So can I respectfully make a suggestion… Email Stuart and put your concerns to him. He’ll reply. You might learn something or you might not, but at least you’ll know if you want to invest your money and your time here.

For me anything over 2800 subscribers is a major win, breaks us even and leaves the Croda deal to be accumulating profit. I love a lean business and SA runs things beautifully in that respect, it reduces risk so much. I’m not into the thinking that everything the company does will romp into an immediate great success but out of several potential gems, we only need one to be very successful to send the SP over a pound. It may happen this year or it may take 3 but I can’t think I’d want my money anywhere else at the moment.