Member Info for Cliostock

The market basically valued an unreleased AxisBiotix and Skinbiotix which was still 5 years from release at £100 million at one point. The market certainly sees value in a development pipeline. Hopefully we would also negotiate an upfront this time too which is a much smaller amount but critical value if it’s cash in the bank. And finally, as Aquae says, could Croda resist a bid when there would be two products plus the clean, medí and pharma biotix pipelines to go at. Their history indicates it’s a possibility.

Brilliant information Aquae, wow and thanks.

So SBTX has patented a solution for which “There is no proven therapy to help alleviate skin disorders like polymorphic light eruption”.

The sun hits the skin of everyone and we all know the dangers but enjoy being in it where possible. Very happy!

I think the fact they have bought in their respective individual names would suggest they are each playing with their own bat, and could each acquire up to 30% without triggering the need for a compulsory bid. They are both seasoned investors, neither are known for taking companies private. It’s a pleasure to have them both on the shareholder list, helping nearly 50% of the company to be held by just 6 entities. That’s some expectation that this will come good!

If I had to put money on it… Oh wait I have.

I think it will be OK if others have the same ethos on it as me. It really depends on the outcome of the investigation. We were at circa 18p before the SA suspension RNS (from memory), so if the investigation reveals that the company has been fine tooth combed and there are no surprises then I won’t be the only one looking to buy a few at the 50% discount. If there are no financial surprises AND the company is wise enough to release some actual visibility on Croda royalties and the way they work to remove that other huge elephant in the room, I’ll be buying more than just a few. However, if the report or results are onerous I’d be happy to hold as I see no point in selling out at this price. So I wouldn’t personally be contributing to any fall in the SP.

Of course people will have differing opinions but I think there will be many holders with the same point of view as me as there was ample opportunity for sellers to get out before the suspension.

Or

Results in the morning.

I doubt it, but I’ll be checking the RNS’s before 8am!

I agree Bel.

Nice to see something tangible to add some sustainability to the surprising recent resilience of the share price.

Thanks Aquae.

If, presumably, AI knows all that is contained in your last three posts, imagine what the Croda scientists know.

My second thought, which is regarding the recent discussion of commercial release timetables, is that it reminded me of when a new model of car is produced. There is often a reveal before there is a full commercial launch. An example being the BMW version of the MINI. First “unveiled” at the Paris motor show in September 2000, it didn’t go on sale in dealerships until July 2001. It has gone on to sell over 6 million units, or sales of an estimated 100 billion pounds so far in its life span. Amsterdam was Zenakine’s ‘Paris Motor Show’ moment, maybe the incoming event is when the person on the street can buy it in their town!

Leapfroggy, something I noticed which ties into your post about SBTX paying SD to promote. I don’t think that’s the case because other products on the SD site are marked with ‘sponsored’ and neither of the Axis products are.

Could be something to do with its ‘exclusive’ status, as it points out. Although the Axis PS also says exclusive and technically it’s not as can be bought directly from us, it’s still good for the listing. Typing in Psoriasis and the other Axis product isn’t very far down so there is a good weighting there for us. Long may it continue. I think we would all be happy with the lower end of the brokers sales forecasts for SD!

I like your thinking Disco, but can you imagine how reckless that would be of a board of directors to plan, especially when two of them are new to the table. I think the emergence of phase 4 products are out of our hands anyway, but based on Aquae’s brilliant post it does make sense that Croda would want to be sure of the infrastructure before they went hard on the product, so we could be ever closer to some decent visibility. Which if it did happen whilst we were suspended, would create demand when unsuspended with a clean bill of health.

Agree with Toyin. The only thing that will change until the FRP investigation completes and we get to see the interim results is that there will be vultures and parasites turning up on this board trying to profit from fear. As long as Mark Dixon and David Brierwood are sitting it out, so am I. They have the influence to instruct what needs to be done to protect their stakes so it is my opinion that they will either be actively engaging or don’t see the need to. Either way I certainly don’t need to be having kittens. Plus, the communication is improving!

I wouldn’t worry too much Bel, that whole incident made someone look a real plonker, and it wasn’t you.

“she has a clear plan of what she wants to achieve in the immediate near term.”

Music to my ears. Interim CEO with a close term view. Not just seat warming and promising greatness, but next year. I like her already. Best of luck in post Rachel and Alyson, here is to a new era of effective leadership and quality corporate governance to match our trailblazing skin microbiome products.

Yes it’s food for thought DireCons, I think about that 100m valuation all the time. If I was in charge of the company I’d be making alterations to increase sales and reduce costs in order to restore that valuation as soon as possible and then go from there. Hopefully Rachel Parsonage will share the same viewpoint!

Certainly a plausible theory Belgrano. The SP is climbing and is still substantially below the average that the market has valued it at over the past 5 years, and if anything the investment case has grown stronger. I am positive about the upcoming couple of weeks hoping the rise since the fall is indicative of an overdone drop.

If that was the case Bel and they stop before reaching the 3% threshold then we may never know. I suppose it depends how comfortable the big holders are with the company as to whether they want to put their reputations on the line as well as their cash by advising others in their circle. If they are indeed doing that the company may be in a better place than the market gives it credit for at the moment.

This is absolutely no more than a stab in the dark, but if the rumours are true that David Brierwood knows Mark Dixon, my guess is that it’s him that is stake building. If he owned circa 6% of the company pre SP drop, and has watched a friend build closer to 25% at high teens and then had the opportunity to top up as low as 5p, I think it would take the restraint of a saint not to take a larger chunk, reduce his average and control more of the company alongside an associate. I wouldn’t bet any of my shares on it, but it’s the best I can come up with and IMO more likely than any alternatives.

Really pleased with that appointment. I don’t believe you could design a better fit for the role if you tried.

Excellent find. Great to see another product out that is confirmed Zenakine, given the scepticism over the Polish product. I think the market will naturally prefer to see a U.K. or US product launched but this is a massive step in the right direction.

I don’t believe that to be the case Belgrano, Croda are not Dick Turpin.