The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with London Stock Exchange Group's Chris Mayo has just been released. Listen here.
I still have this feeling that PFC are closing off some big deal(s) like TenneT soon, which should set this stock to where it should be - well over £1.50. That said, I think we would have been there already based on all the contracts, news and events.
Although TO might not always go well, I do think it could be our best option to seriously take PFC to a new price range. If WG is anything to go by, then from 70p range to £1.80 to £2.50 (on news of TO) will wipe out most of the shorters. This will then get us back to pre-summer last year when things were moving along at steady pace.
Just a thought as many have said similar...
This is great news, but what I think we need is a jump of 15 - 20p - that way the shorts will be forced to close and/ or will find it harder to bring down SP (as it has been lately) and most likely will have to take out new positions or default/ margin call. At present they (shorts and others) are able to manage the 5-10p upward movement to their price range.
100% agree Ftsefan, and DavidW2016.
I have always wondered where PFC is overall; there are way too many firms still on small % (less than 0.5%). But that also means a lot of them can come out a lot quicker than others, which will have a domino effect on others - great news for long buyers.
How many of these gaps are still open to be filled around these price range. Why does it take so long to fill them up?! It's like its being used a tool/ option to keep price down.
Let's see if Cube benefits from this drop, and the others too.
IR team have fallen asleep again maybe, re: RNS.
That along with some new contracts I think is coming our way. The shorters need to start reading the signs and get out within a month.
Cube probably managed to get a new price yesterday or today - some push happening this morning.
Hi LeeRex,
Good to speak and morning all. Yes, good point and therefore, it would be unrealistic for PFC to expect such offers from PE, as much as we would love that. A £2.50 would be a great T.O. base price, and upon full completion it is likely to go in to £3.50 plus (end of the year with T.O. and no screw-ups in between).
From what I read the divs are likely going to be introduced upon break-even, by which point the share price has to recover quite a bit too, around the £2.00 plus mark according to some chart markers I saw.
There is still a mixture of matters for PFC to deal with, mostly financial; if II's and anyone else are waiting on that, they are mixing the high volumes around the current price range - also depends if there are enough shares for such groups.
I was expecting this to be in 75p - 80p by now.
Astaris had reduced last week (0.10%). I suspect Qube will need to try as well. I am watching GLG carefully because they should be out soon unless they have bigger fishes to fry than they PFC one.
I have a feeling some of the shorters got a new price between 70 and 75p.
Is this going to 67/68p just so some shorters can get out without making losses?!!
As I said last week, we will know for sure whether there is a market abuse and manipulation!!
We need to watch this carefully as this should NOT be dropping below 70p at all!!
Morning all,
I think PFC would be cautious if there was a offer from Apollo because of what happened to the SP of the WG and THG. Apollo is a successful firm but they went in cheap and PFC believe they have worked extremely hard to get to where they are now. I also believe they have worked very hard as can be seen the REAL life events.
A bid of £5 plus would start off well on the PFC table. Of course like most PE firms, they want the best deal, but I think PFC will see go by their original trading price £15 or £10 min, which was a long time ago.
Personally, if a TO offer made this go to £2.50 and then came to £1.80 is not great but I think a lot of us (if not all) would be much happier than the current SP.
So I have been thinking about the prospects of dividends payments vs. what would be the current return on investment, and how that measures up over time based on the current price range (60p to 75p range).
This is not exact to the penny but I have used data that is available for PFC in past years, to get a sense of what is at stake.
So we buy an investment (normal long trade) for £10K UK pound; average price 67.5p purchase price, so at £2.25, you are looking at £23.3K profit, plus £10K investment.
On the basis dividends are reinstated around the £2.00 plus mark (or higher based on breakeven), the £10K would have give us c. 5,000 shares, and so div per year is likely to be around £130 to £200 per year, based on past numbers.
In other words one would have to wait around 120 to 155 years' to make the same difference back as pose to taking a position now - perhaps pass on the share certificates to ones great, great grandchildren so they can feel it's worth to wait on divs to make the money. Just a thought really.
Have a good weekend all.
I agree with you DanUK.
We know by now shorters will hustle as much as possible. If they are not reducing by next week, then they are going to get in some issues.
DanUK - a lot of us feel the frustration - hang in there, it has to turn the corner soon enough.
Sm66 - thanks - glad to see the bond too, and yes it is very cheap. There is money to be made here (especially those in 50s/60s), and which ever event/ factor that suddenly drives this share like Oct 2021, will happen again. The other key event was May 2022 when the shorters got hurt. The BIG players (JPM, Citadel, Blackrock) knew to cut out by August 2022, and have not surfaced over 0.5%.
I think the ones left in this are the ones that lost badly and trying to get something back (pride and arrogance to not be able to walk away), but as many noted and can see, it is becoming harder for them to manage their short positions. They should either as Fortissimo say's cut and restart, or just use some brain and REALISE this is on the long journey now, and they will make uncapped amounts on the North, than the South.
Also, as one of our regulars mentioned yesterday, the PI power is actually greater than II's because of the number of volumes and quantity that a market wide sentiment can achieve. They way I see it is, there is a whole load of people just at the 90% consideration mark and as soon as that next 10% event happens, that will be it - the demand will explode and that is the spark that will set this SP back in to £1.00.
Sadly, many want to see it be £1.00 before buying, but look at it another way, you would have lost c.30% gain by then.
Also, the shorts will get wiped out sooner or later - that is a guaranteed event, unless they are able to manage their positions - and they are paying a lot of keep those positions. Eventually luck will run out for them and MM's/ BR's won't be able to do anything but raise the buy price.
There are always buyers and sellers - that is what makes the market complete.
But, and there is an extreme but here - what we have seen in PFC for the past 1 year specifically is NOT normal market movement. Lets consider the following;
A) you don't know what the future is, so you like PFC and buy
B) you see board saying things and keeping to their words finally
C) and then you see big contracts awarded,
D) you see partnership globally and with wide variety of companies,
E) and you see key change towards ESG/ Green energy
F) and you see 2022 closed off with mitigation to manage losses and improve bank facilities.
BUT the SP still goes down like crazy on the back of mass investors selling off? I don't think so!!
Normally market movement is relative; you cannot have bias towards one direction because systems are not supposed to do this - UNLESS someone has asked it to put more weight on sell and/ or someone is manually holding the price in a specific range.
After this latest deal we will definitely get a clear answer as to whether there is market manipulation going on. The share was double SP with dividend in place, the share was double SP with worse banking situation and most importantly the SP was double without USD8 to 10 billions for PFC only - that is 2023 alone.
So, how is it possible we are at 75p?!! Well, we will soon find out.
I second that - thanks JCL.
You can call them and log a complaint/ review by the marker watch team (they have a different name for them). I did that about a month ago, but they did lack the basic knowledge of shorting and I gave examples of dates, events and the materiality of how and when things were happening.
The London Stock Exchange is also another key company as it's on their floors, the book-runners are doing some prettty F-ed up stuff.
Just one final note on this - PFC say they are global and their deals and work recently still continues to PROVE this.
I still have this feeling about Middle-East - I think Saudi Aramco and Dubai ADNOC are on the pipeline!!