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It's 2:1
5:1 before
5:2.5 after = 2:1
Good luck Guttedman, you don't need to justify taking a 100% profit, especially after so many disappointments. I've posted before how the long term holders are loving the renaissance but still have a lot of baggage to overcome, hence our nervousness. It's taken every ounce of discipline to keep me from dropping the hammer (have top sliced of course).
I personally think we've only just begun a new (virtuous circle) journey but very best of luck to you.
If you go to the Daily Telegraph website it's the first article, by Bill Gardner, posted at 9.30pm tonight I think.
that's funny, I actually read it the first time the way it was intended rather than what was actually written - 5:1 ratio becomes 2:1 ratio, hence 2.5x multiplier (but technically 1.5 additional shares).
9.99%
Sorry, meant "make up for the share they missed out on" with regards the Heavily Oversubscribed placing.
This might sound a little naive (and apologies if it's been posted before), but the recent price movements seem incongruent with the statement "HEAVILY oversubscribed" with regards the placing. I've read the recent posts with interest (particularly Merchant recent post) which look to explain this, but tbh is a little over my head.
What it boils down to for me is this:
1. Either the usual suspects are playing fun and games with us PI's to pinch more shares cheaply (and make up for those not missed out on),
2. Or there has been a significant change in sentiment since the placement. The numbers quoted in the RNS might be lower than some of us had assumed, but surely the II's must have been in the know pre-placement during the appetite exploration process (for want of a better term). I'm not an expert on equity raising though, so don't know how much detailed info the Company can share with public side stakeholders (even with NDA's). Seems a little odd to me though that they could be surprised by newsflow so soon.
For that reason I'm leaning towards the former and keeping faith.
Agree with you Waif, they are being very careful to underplay the Q1 top line growth of 20% aren't they?
Be very interested to see what 20/21 forecast looks like now. Even with lockdown easing I can't see a return to normal anytime soon (and god knows what Winter is going to be like). I imagine they're having an interesting time internally at landing on some assumptions.
Slightly disappointed there aren't some updated numbers on the pension rationalisation. Good to see the admin merge is signed up though, so something else to look forward to.
Hopefully PFD won't make me look a fool tomorrow, but this time I don't see why SP should fall on results.
In the past I've never been clear whether the tick-up pre results was leakage of positive news or "buy on rumour". But this time there only seem to be positive developments, the only question being quantum (re performance) and timing (re Balance Sheet fixing).
Not so much a gamble anymore IMO,
Good post Ethio,
What depressed me a little is that I suspect that a full rights issue at 5.5-1 to existing shareholders would have raised the required funds , so the placing feels like a calculated move to have a more secure shareholder register and less reliance (and volatility) from smaller PI's.
That makes perfect sense, but at what issue price? We all saw what price was potentially achievable after the Sky interview, and understand better now why that was dampened, but I'm a little disappointed that II's were only interested at 40p when we're so far down the line towards commercialisation, especially if the prospectus hinted at DF being either done or pretty much done.
Just irks me a little that those who took the greater risk from earlier in the journey are only offered crumbs of 20-1, but hey, that's the game I guess.
I'm still confident both II's and PI's will do fine.
Sorry Sharebel, but the weighted average price of buying in now to get your offer barely covers the spread.
Plantpower
Your workings are spot on. The 20-1 offer to placate PI's is desultory and quite frankly insulting.
Once the baseless de-ramping starts it's time to buy.....
ps. I think a placing pre launch is unlikely and would be an utter travesty.
Gov has been pumping billions to prop up the economy through Furlough and bond buying (and possibly even directly into the stock market). Do you really think they'll allow the testing consortium's launch to be held up by a placing? Maybe post launch once the consortium struggles to keep up with demand.
Just to put things into perspective, in the 4 years since the McCormick bid we've had a chipping away of the debt pile, potential good news re the fixing of the pension schemes, and more good news re a potential cash injection from Hovis. Plus a global catastrophe that's benefited the product portfolio and hence the bottom line.
But we're still south of the McCormick offer.
I don't want to open up old wounds and rows about whether it was right or wrong to reject the offer or whether it was a solid offer, yada yada yada - but given that someone was considering paying 63p even then, and that management at the time felt that 63p was too low, It's still an interesting reference point. So I'm holding out for more.
Just putting it out there.