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I would be very surprised it there was a rig Q3/Q4. It would already be booked in. Personnel contract already signed for the drill if that was the case. I am working a contract now. But signed and rig ready for my next project 2024 Q1. So a rig is not signed they don't just come available.
So we need to look mid 2024 At this point. Could be wrong but the good news or having a rig you would shout load to gather investment as the wheels turned.
So yeah i am heavily down like all and i hope Tower proves me wrong. Prepared to wait though.
Plus we should be going for the easy wins, don't dump plastic in the oceans for one, plant more trees. Basics help a lot. Yet my local council has cut down all the in town trees to make a concrete jungle and the the UK have a very poor hygiene issue, litter everywhere and it is so obvious when you travel abroad.
That is why i say there must be back handers and corruption. Else the basic economics do not make sense to farm this all abroad.
I think what people forget is the immense amount of work to get these things going. That is for the big players. The smaller companies it is even harder. Throw in the Africa factor and things can get frustrating, but can turn fast when it clicks.
So yeah frustration does get to you but it can change.
The issue is the big players move their profits abroad. The actual UK small to mid players have a lot of assets in the UK only.
May as well drill abroad save the windfall tax and still sell the UK gas or oil. Makes no sense it just pushes the skills and money abroad.
This is an issue for IOG and Ithaca who i now have a contract for.
We allow other countries to prosper but not own these politicians must get kickbacks to screw us.
Their climate response is shut down our industry and buy from the middle east plus shipping cost. Destroying our economy.
The issue is the big players move their profits abroad. The actual UK small to mid players have a lot of assets in the UK only.
May aswell drill abroad
I will add i am happy to stay at this exposure until the new year to see how this pans out. But it is always nice to sit at your average whilst waiting for news as when you are down a lot it slowly eats away at you. But this can rise fast in the right situation.
If you could ramp to 5 .5p that would be great so i can reduce my holding at breakeven. :-)
@ lovelife. I agree, same average for me 5.5p, when we are consolidating cash we are subject to gas prices. A good time to short to lower price and get in to wait for winter, so i think we are in that process.
The only issue i saw was with all eggs in one basket if there is an issue all production stops while they fix.
I did notice a few people i spoke to latched on to the 30 mmscf rather than the 42. But again that is temporary. Lets wait and see how it hoes into winter. I recon i wont get back to 5.5p until christmas maybe more if prices rise a lot. Needs a few Quarters to bank the money.
I think by christmas with higher gas prices with show us more on the financials as we can only speculate the gas price. We had a mild winter last year, what if we get a beast from the east style cold spell. But then again that would be clutching at straws.
Honestly who knows where the Sp will go i would like 10p by christmas with increasing gas prices. But probably wishful thinking.
Dont be an idiot, that is not what it says, 32 mmscf is just the current flow rate, they can open it up more but have to feather it in.
I thought that was a good RNS and answered a lot of questions. But again the super negative latch on a single word or number. 42 mmscf is the max tested and that can be sustained.
They need to shut in H1 because the water it draws through the fault is very expensive to separate onshore. Unless we get winter prices H1 does not make money at these levels. It makes a very small profit but it contaminates the pipeline to onshore. So they will shut in H1 and produce H2. Therefore no water in the system.
End of July is also mid year tax bill time so if people put in money thinking this would bounce they probably need it back now.
I hope.
Realistically now we need to wait for the winter until end of fiscal year March 24 to see what that brings.
You would think there would be some buoyancy to 10p at least with the bond. But we hope and see.
Which is why H1 has to be shut in as it does cost over half the revenue to de water H1. But yes a gas H2 has little cost.
Yeah i would think we would get an RNS to say the Rig is away from location and on Tow.
With a few lines on operations H1 shut in H2 flow increase. The only way to get rid of the water is to stop H1 production.
But then the markets may just latch on H1 shut in. We will see.
If we get high gas prices then H1 can still be opened up if that is possible after extended shut in, as it can pay its way even with the water. Just not in low gas prices.
Lets see what happens tomorrow or Monday more realistically.
It will take them time to shut down H1 and then built back H2 to purge the pipeline of water ( from H1). That water costs a lot to sort out onshore. Plus remember that when rig contracts are ending sometimes operations suddenly take a little longer. A lot of those rig guys are agency (60%) so will be out of a job until they fond a new contract.
But yes we will continued to get battered.
Thanks for that, me buying in is simply that whilst the bond is a big question mark. At the current Sp price below 5p there is wiggle room. I also agree that people need to forget anything above high teens for now.
You are right about H2, i would even go as far as saying without the elevated gas prices the last Q 2022 performance would have meant H2 maybe would have been to late.
As i said when o was on the rig, H2 steadies the ship enough that we can repair the issues and build, but was not the silver bullet. IOGs performance over this winter will be interesting.
It always makes me laugh when people say about employees not buying in like CEOs. Their jobs are on the line bonuses are share based. They have plenty of skin in the game.
What i learnt was they are very competent, some clients give me alarm bells.
So finger crossed.
@ coldspy. You talking to me? Yes i dont post much, but considering i drilled H2 i know more than you. There was a reason i could not post or buy in until the contract was suspended.