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Big Minnow: I reckon that Philip Hammond is doing us an even bigger favour by helping the UK avoid a no deal Brexit as a no-deal would be negative for the political input to UKEF on our decision. What with then needing to do trade deals with everyone.
But in the other hand any Brexit outcome that kept us in the EU customs union (including of course remain, extended transition, and an explicit full customs union within the terms of a deal as per Corbyn or other similar proposals) would just be more positive than we could ever have thought possible. That's because after 20 years of negotiation the EU just happened, would you believe, to sign off a trade agreement with Mercosur (the LatAm trade area) a couple of weeks ago. How fortunate can you get.ñ
Who would ever have thought that we might get to benefit from a trade agreement with Argentina behind the full weight of the EU! Would be massive positive for UKEF decision and probably for the SeaLion costs.
Come on Phil. Phil's our hero!

Always was a desperate long shot for you anyway eh?

Yeh yeh Carrot

I mean education is a good thing but a little in the wrong hands ...

I think you mean 'affect', not 'effect'.
Anyhoo, will stop there for fear of educating you.

errr ... drivel Surfit! see below from Bloomberg below (www.bloomberg.com/energy)
I really don't think that you guys are standing on ground of your own choosing any more. You're just erecting barricades around where you are. But it's not where you want to be.
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Markets
Oil Jumps as Tanker Seizures Escalate Persian Gulf Tensions
By Harkiran Dhillon
18 July 2019, 23:40 BST
Updated on 19 July 2019, 21:50 BST
Iranian authorities capture two vessels: UK Foreign Secretary
Hedgeye analyst says the market should expect more risk ahead

Oil jumped in after-market trading following the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp seizing a British oil tanker and a Liberian-flagged ship in the Strait of Hormuz, raising stakes in the critical oil chokepoint.

Brent futures rose as much as 1.4% from its settlement, while WTI futures also edged higher after the seizure of the tankers. U.K. Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said Friday that he is “extremely concerned by the seizure of two naval vessels by Iranian authorities in the Strait of Hormuz.”

“With all the noise about potential negotiations with Iran, the reality is that geopolitical risk is enormously high in the heart of the oil producing gulf and key transport corridor,” said Joe McGonigle, an energy policy analyst for Hedgeye Risk Management and a former senior official at the U.S. Energy Department. “Iran’s only response to maximum pressure by the U.S. is maximum chaos in the region that tries to win concessions from the U.S. Iran’s seizure of the British tanker is just one example and we think the market should get prepared for more risk ahead.”

Dire Straits - A Timeline of Events

Despite the escalating conflict in the Middle East, New York futures ended the week 7.6% lower, the biggest weekly loss in nearly two months, amid fears about waning demand. The U.S.-China trade war and expanding American fuel stockpiles have also weighed on prices.

“The biggest factor driving oil prices today is the Iran-U.S. tension story,” said Phil *****, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group Inc. “The rallies appear to show the conflict in Strait of Hormuz might be more serious and that stakes are raised going into this weekend.”

West Texas Intermediate for August delivery traded at $55.76 a barrel at 4:46 p.m. after settling at $55.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent for September settlement traded as high as $63.37 a barrel before trading at $62.87 a barrel. The benchmark closed at $62.47 on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

See also: U.S. Demands Iran Release Foreign Ship, Crew Seized This Week

After the U.K. tanker Stena Impero was escorted into Iranian waters, a second vessel in the area, the Liberian-flagged Mesdar, appeared to turn toward the Iranian coast, according to ship-tracking data. The second tanker has left Iranian waters, according to Fars News.

In Washington, U.S. President Donald Trump said he will be “working with t

Carrot is likely a junior fund/hedge fund manager who is actually short of the stock (he's said so several times) with his employer's and or clients' money.
It really is his day job. That's why he's on here all the time. If it goes wrong enough he'd likely be sacked.
He's seeking to create a bubble on here focussing on the downside. He even seeks to create parallel Rkh world where, for example, the oil price isn't a current view of the oil price, Parliament isn't making a hard Brexit less likely (??!?) etc
No doubt he'd just say people should hear his views blah blah but he sets out to be seriously one sided motivated by his position in the stock.
Anybody reading his stuff should sup with a long straw'.

For what it's worth, and instead of your stories to advance your self interested grasping for influence, let's put the obvious plan A on the table eh?
What Premier would like to do is bring a partner in. Maybe you didn't know! The upside to that is it might advance phase 2, and even appraisal work on phase 2. The downside is we might go down to 40% instead 60% for phase 2.
But bringing phase 2 and even phase 3 this side of the horizon would thump the share price through the ******* roof!
Why don't you spend a while discussing this with your bosses instead of spinning yarns on here. Or might that risk a P45?

Yeh yeh carrot. Is this the scenario you spin your employers to justify the short? Who knows what will happen, but the downside is more than discounted given the upside.

... when I say maybe more come, I mean near term. Obv if all goes well its massive beyond that.

Sabyam - cool it and read what Mogger said re last year. I guess on the last couple of weeks some people bought in front of ops update. Positive but not dramatic share price move up to now. Maybe more to come, though a lot of moving pieces which might nclude carrot closing his short.

So even if someone knew what was in the ops update, FCA's not going to get anywhere. Pump and dump notions are surely just sour grapes. You got drawn as a momentum investor, just face it! Pride might be hurt but being ex compliance personnel (or whatever it was) doesn't mean transaction timing has to be easy for you.

ElCapitan - pretty clear line of sight to enforce against any and all sovereign assets in US, EU 28 etc. Pakistan will have trouble wriggling, though I guess could retaliate in some way. Enforcing judgement on Italy obv even easier.

If this performs your employers might have to find some tidy margin. Hopefully no P45 risk!

SeaLion para is even before the Zama para this time. Oh my god (and yours)!

Having said before that UKEF did not support oil sector you now post a link saying it's a great supporter of the sector.

Ha, first 'influence' below was supposed to be 'reason'.

Make no mistake, Cateater is not on here looking to discuss or influence and certainly not to learn or listen. He's about one thing only and that is a mission to influence. He's said he's short term short. His comments are directed at short term negative price influence and have next to nothing to do with any actual commercial outcome for RKH.
Anyone who feels they might be influenced should, as I've said 'sup with a very long straw'.

Is Cateater really down to these desparate stretch sort of arguments. Hadn't thought the positive case was quite that strong!

Suresh - it's his day job, until the P45 arrives, see earlier stuff

If that really is the best you can do ...