Member Info for CitizenTS

C'mon, any views on Boris's position on Falklands? Ain't that what it's all about now? Unfortunately we won't be in any EU customs union so it's FI oil and jobs in UK engineering (that's the principle behind UKEF support) versus any supposed impact on trade deal negotiations with Argentina etc. Where doe International Trade Secretary stand? Liz Truss is it?
Meaningful thoughts are allowed!
For what it's worth I think it might just appeal to Boris to approve UKEF financing. Civil servants'opinions probably against. Foreign Office no doubt against, but merger proposals between Foreign Office and International Trade prob +ve for us.
Views welcome

... and make no mistake, other hedge funds will smell ARCM's blood. Merciless,no prisoners, ambush.

Banks that lent PMO shorters the stock to sell may be in for a shock. They're going to have to find it themselves and pay for it. PMO's progress in paying down debt is excellent. At this rate it would all be paid off in 6 yrs ish (with a bit from Zama) - which would be economic madness. They'll settle with somewhere between 1bln and where they are now. PMO is only a little overgeared. Tullow has similar production volume, but is just not remotely as technically competent as PMO and has 2-3x the debt level. 'fraid they've made a boo boo, shorted the wrong stock!
This is really going to get very lively indeed. I'd bet on Tony Durrant.

Had wondered if it was a 'no' from UKEF the way the share price was performing, instead due diligence is progressing!
It may be that farm-out discussions involve Rkh and Premier putting some of their interest on the table in return for (a weighty amount of) cash and someone got the wrong end of the stick on that over the weekend. But a farm out would unquestionably involve solidifying the prospect of phase 2, worth big chips, and at least as importantly bringing it forward by two others yes or more - worth quite a chunk at an effective 15% discount rate per annum on cash flows for project value at FID or sanction.

See
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-50274212

A civil service and government in favour of a new onshore coal mine is good for new offshore oil, 8,000 miles offshore UK. UK political concerns re UKEF should be minimal on basis of evidence as we have it now.

Anyone know why Goldmans hold 8% of PMO in CFDs?

Thanks, don't know about 'totally unrelated' as they are the same deal in that both give government guaranteed loans. But yes, one is Department of Trade and Industry and the other is Treasury.
Thing is the time for an early 'no' as Sirius got has pretty much come and gone now for Seal Lion.

Sea Lion and Sirius (SXX) submitted to the ECAs at similar times, SL was 30 Jul and SXX was early Aug. SXX have already had an early 'no', ie not moving on to detailed due diligence, which they have announced.
Have said before, but no news is good news at this stage. Assumption is that SL shows every appearance of moving on to DDD. We may indeed be on our way!

What if first royalty payment is less than the amount owed!

Some of these will be sells of course. The system doesn't know and just guesses using where the price is in relation to the spread.
But obv was encouraging that biz done towards top of spread. Annoying that algo trades are in there as well (provoked by same comparisons).

20 bid, see if this lasts

Not yet!

20 bid tomorrow. Who says no?

Anyone know how the est'd 280 million barrels of phase 2 is split between Pl032 (40% to RKH) and Pl004 (64% RKH)?
Similarly how is the now 200 million barrels estimated near field exploration upside split?

Anyone when interims are out - Sept 7th last year? Guess won't be great day, lower cash etc.

Igloo - shares bought and sold have to be very similar numbers in total. Hope it's not a shock to you but the market cannot normally create or destroy shares!
'fraid one of the two large trades will be a buy and the other likely a sale. Don't believe the system guesses which just compare trade prices with the spread at the time.

And thanks Mogger. Wonder if the southern hub could also mean accessing a bit of what was phase 2 oil during the phase 1 drilling. If so then hope RKH are protecting their 60% share of that!

'Nov' should be NPV

On the face of it the comments mean the southern hub brings forward oil production, perhaps extending the initial plateau - so increasing the NPV. Excellent that he says 'very much increases' Nov!
Also is the case that a southern hub is adjacent to Phase 2 and therefore will indeed make phase 2 easier to do start quickly and efficiently. Intriguing.
All sounds bloody brilliant to me.

rpoodle - Yes, noticed that too. Very interested to hear back anything you get. With phase one upgraded to 250mln maybe phase 2 is upgraded too. But that 330m (was it?) net to Premier may suggest a materially bigger upgrade to phase 2.
Also the capex to first oil has gone up from 1.5 to 1.8mln if I have that right. What is that about? Infrastructure to bolt on a much expanded phase 2?
Have always thought, and said so here, that a farm down should bring phase 2 forward as a farminee brings cash to do some things in parallel rather than serially. A farminee will want that too as they will be paying pretty mucha fill wack (modelled) market value for their interest in phase 1, plus something more modest for the rest but really the subsequent phases provide their upside.
Phase 2, and the scale of upside that brings, is coming in to view! And work to appraise phase 3 (Isobel etc) would also be brought forward a few years.