Member Info for Citizenlane

Which word would you suggest beany?

How would the £48m government funded Scilly contract burn cash? One of the attributes of JW's approach imho is his determination to operate on many fronts - there are multiple opportunities out there in this space, many of them govt backed, and cementing the idea of H&W as flexible in its thinking and can-do in its capacity is crucial to the rapid scaling up required to exploit them.

The fact is, it's a small market and therefore susceptible to trading sentiment. The sooner JW applies to be on main market the better imho. To me, this £25m company is clearly a £250m company in waiting, but it won't get there on AIM.

They clearly have been talking to the council Si, as the RNS states - the bomb-dropping refers to the news itself imho- the council has been at odds with the steamship co, the H&W proposal no doubt has been thought out in conjunction with councillors and local MPs

Steve sims the scilly councillor quoted by the BBC apparently in support of the Harland bid is responsible for travel and tourism. Current Annual turnover of steamship company is £25m. Nice little earner for five or ten years given £48m of approved govt funds to build ferries - and perfect use of appledore prior to FSS. JW is a natural born disrupter

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crg40eyy96lo.amp

Interesting quote from Scilly council here - “news of the bid has dropped like a bomb” and residents “very positive” steamship co declined to comment

JW vindicated in delaying debt/finance agreement, holds plenty more cards now, with UKEF to come. Wonder if there will be NI development grant finance in the offing - seems to be real momentum behind energy security in NI. Red letter day for Harl all round.

Maybe have a whip round ad buy him twenty quid's worth each to shut him up

Yeah, right, a "leak" that has caused some big player to sell 96 quids' worth at 15p!

The Scilly Isles steamship co, as I understand it, decided not to take up the offer of levelling up funding, opting for private debt to fund their new ferries. The stated reason was that funding was slow in coming through, but locals suggested they didn't want the commercial compromises that came with public funding - not least the stipulation that they must use local yards for the build. This would therefore be a rival bid for that levelling up funding, which is in place, and which would challenge the current company's monopoly. Either HARL has not won the Scillonian contract - may be going to the Far East?- and sees the opportunity to compete with its already tendered plans, or this is a game of chicken to secure that contract. Without a monopoly on the route the Scilly company will be struggling with its debt. There have been questions from local MPs about the soaring costs and their implication for livelihoods and tourism on the islands. Either way, another masterly bit of chutzpah from JW imho.

IMO it’s not

My only thought on that is that it may not be AIM for ever - if the JR is positive and debt secured on favourable terms, (two reasonable ifs) I would imagine that JW will be looking to move to the main market asap. His thoughts on the volatilty of AIM well documented, and I believe those outcomes would mean some cornerstone institutional investment incoming. Although as you say a 37.5p average feels unlikely at this moment, the £20m MCAP for a company with an £850m order book based on cast iron govt contracts and a potential £100m+ asset in IM also looks surreal. Time will tell

The 31st August news means JW is cutting it fine on his LTIP award, but still a fighting chance...

Value Shares will represent 35% of the total number of Options and will realise value provided that the volume weighted average price of the shares for the 90 trading days immediately preceding and including 31 December of each calendar year is as follows:

o 2023: 37.50 pence per share

Scillonian news must be close

Ditto that Stokey PanOcean is a $2.5bn company with 340 cargo ships in operation. Good relationship to have. Another excellent sign of things to come.

Extremely unlikely it is LOG, they were happy to hold at 36p, would be a very hard sell to creditors for them to bail out now. Just traders and shorters exaggerating uncertainty. As we know, sentiment can shift v quickly

We're all doomed! doomed I tell you! (translation: let me in at 3.4 and I'll ten bag within a year)

Be interesting to see where the SP is at the end of August, when IM decision and debt arrangement is on the near horizon - and perhaps one or two contracts in the bag - hard to imagine it won't be close to double where we are. Not many companies with a £15m cap and a £900m order book. I'm signing off for the summer, but these crazy low price look to me like a decent way to pay for that fortnight in Abersoch, if nothing else, dyor

I would imagine once debt facility secured with UKEF backing number one priority will be to move off AIM into main market. Maturing company warrants mature investors. Will need £50m+ mcap, but IM should sort that. Crazy low entry point here imho

They seem pretty confident that the issue is mechanical, if flow rates make it up to the anticipated level within a couple of weeks then the bond anxieties will be largely averted imho. Still an if, but a slightly smaller one. Good news about lack of liquids, for once...