Member Info for Citizenlane

They aren’t going to nationalise it - better bet would be to offer a few contracts, falklands etc. can’t work out Riverstone’s strategy - seem to be just further indebting themselves unless there is a white knight already in the offing - just about poss I guess they just wanted JW out and full steam ahead. I wonder if govt can see a way out of the Navantia contract - but then that would just mean bankruptcy

Anyone understand that Riverstone RNS? Seems that the super priority funds will be agreed by Monday/Tuesday. Not clear at all whether that is precursor to a turnaorund or a sale or a takeover. Certainly appears that they are as surprised as anyone by govt U-turn on UKEF, their dividend depended on it...

I would imagine the £20m will come as an equity stake and current shareholders will be lucky to get 25p in the £ … but if the business can be set on an even keel, there is no doubt serious value to be realised from the FSS revenue, and perhaps from forthcoming SOWEC deals and Falklands etc, so all not lost …New Labour will definitely not want to see the yards close… let’s see what next week brings, perhaps JW will make a cheeky offer for the ferry business

Thinks its weird how a £15m mcap company looking for a standard loan guarantee is taking up quite so much newsprint and government angst - feels like some warped corporate and political interests keeping this going as a story, I sense the obsessive hand of kevan jones at work, but I can't quite remember the reasons for his extreme animus, beyond a personal dislike of Ben wallace, surely govt is not going to get caught up in that kind of spat in its first decision

Still no idea why you think the scilly project is the problem, every one of the hundreds of companies that gets UKEF loan support operates in loads of different markets at home and abroad, are you suggest they are all flouting competition laws? IOSSG had the opportunity to utilise a proportion of £47m of govt funding; they declined to do so.

Prospect of a Trump/Vance presidency and radically diminished US support for NATO would make it reckless in the extreme for a UK govt not to support the regeneration of H&W yards and the prompt delivery of FSS. Britain and the EU with an aggressive and unchecked Putin on the doorstep will need all the shipbuilding capacity it can muster imho

In reading the pretty hysterical and frequently inaccurate newspaper reports of the past week or so, prob shouldn't underestimate the simple editorial appeal of having the words "Titanic" and "Sink" in the same headline. Lazy, but tempting to a hard pressed business desk looking for silly season features, no doubt.

Stokey as with Tata, I think the new govt's approach to these negotiations will be more holistic than you suggest. Fact is, they can apply whatever caveats they want to this negotiation and given the history of Kevan Jones and Healey and Maria Eagle with regards to the FSS deal, I would say that there is a good chance that they will use the sign off of UKEF as leverage to get more involved with the mechanics of that FSS contract. Not necessarily bad news for Harl, more a question of holding Navantia's feet to the fire re guarantees of UK jobs etc

Though vastly different in scale and commitment - Tata is a huge straightforward bailout, H&L is only a commercial loan guarantee - it is smart of Harl to link the two in the public mind. Hard for the govt to be seen to be supporting welsh jobs and not NI ones. My guess is this well get done swiftly, not doubt with a few strings involving more critical oversight of FSS, ensuring the 60+% of work is done by UK yards, and threatening navantia with breach of contract if that is not the case

Ben Murray was posting as much the other day: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7215709195856134145/

Better invest in bacofoil for your tin hat FG

The timing of this visit and comments by Benn are interesting in light of the current suspension - what better way for an incoming government to signal its commitment to NI than with support for what it clearly sees as its "iconic shipyard" - perhaps adds some weight to the theory that the delay has been engineered until after the election to ensure a Labour rubbber-stamp for this future.

https://afloat.ie/resources/irish-ports/shipyards/item/62863-historic-visit-to-harland-wolff-as-shipyard-host-largest-cross-party-delegation

This speech from incoming NI Secretary Hilary Benn after his visit yo H&W gives a sense that he “gets it” about UKEF (particularly, you’d guess, in light of jobs threat at Spirit after Boeing takeover): https://www.hilarybennmp.com/newsfromhilary/2023/10/13/hilarys-speech-at-labour-party-conference-2023/

All pretty much in line with expectations, brief suspensions doesn't seem to much of a worry, relative confidence about refinancing, debt level not quite as high as some believed suggesting margins holding up. My guess is that they will get 80 per cent UKEF guarantee and sign a deal on that basis, though given teh election and need for ministerial sign off will be a few weeks off

Agree re lack of news, not so much about the ferry, I think it will quickly eclipse the rival and open up a space for Harl on several potential routes and fronts - and eventually lead to govt funds for new boats - time will tell in this and other issues, but I like their get knocked down but get up again resilience -the key factor in any nascent success story, dyor

Loving the idea that proactive investors now count as journalists, move over Woodward and Bernstein

Sppedy, why would the Falklands contract need to pay off the Riverstone debt rather than help to service the interest?

real scandal is why it is taking the courts so long to deliberate over IM when there is clearly no substantial case to answer

Https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/government-will-make-a-significant-contribution-towards-casement-park-says-prime-minister/a72251415.html

I think from his statement it's more that his imminent surgery will prevent him from campaigning in June - I imagine he hoped that it would be out of the way in time for an autumn election

They should offer Kevan Jones a NED role