Member Info for cindercone

I said I don't know what will happen Ophidian. Besides, my estimates are based on events, not a squiggly chart designed to con other holders out of money so people can suck up cheap shares.

Ha, don't worry Pigpen. My mindset has changed quite a bit recently - I've very much got a long-term view on all this now. I think people have got overexcited by the rise in recent years and presumed it will continue to ascend without looking at the FACTS.

Still plenty to be excited about and there are a few things that could rerate the SP, but I don't see a lot happening to move us significantly higher (except results) until the September Eskom tender. And the state they're in, who's to say that won't be delayed.

@Peterfal

Prolonged rise based on what?

Brits resource update - nice but doesn't mean diddly squat without a license
BE contracts - how do you know we'll get any? Besides, tender process will not begin until September
Dividend announcement - dividend likely to be too low to significantly move SP based on current profits and future capex
Lemur sell off - that's years down the line
Mokopane - nobody knows when license will drop, could be years
An offer? - most unlikely

To say we have bottomed out is nonsense. Maybe we have, maybe we haven't. You don't know that's for sure.

Only one thing will significantly move the SP imo? Good financial results

I'm also discounting the dividend policy as a re-rater. Just can't see how the company can afford to give anything substantial enough to attract investors. It will be a positive for sure, but at this stage in BMN's growth cycle its effect is likely to be minimal.

BBN once again proving why he's the only man worth paying attention to. Clear, concise, credible. Unlike him, I have doubts about BE's dominance in the VRFB sector being "when, not if", but I'm prepared to hold because the potential riches are unimaginable for someone that got in relatively early.

I'm not naive enough to believe it's a dead cert or make predictions, but I'm very well-positioned for the journey.

Which brings me to the conclusion, why do people get so annoyed because I don't ramp up the company, give bullish SP targets or layer everything in TA bullshit? Because they're trading the share, I'm not. Short-term SP fluctuations mean jack shit.

If you want to play that game, be careful, and don't trust what anyone says on here unless it's balanced with home truths - I don't.

@BobbyAxe

I'm not all that concerned about the divi delay - nothing was promised anyway other than the timing of the announcement. The missed deadlines are a bit amateur hour and do knock investor confidence, but if you're in this for the long-term it doesn't matter - the truth will out.

Yes RichKen, definitely suited to large scale, but once again - at what cost? I understand BE's vertically integrated plan will be modelled on the battery being tested by Eskom, but was also under the impression we'd have a lot more detail prior to that. If they're installing their own VRFB at Vametco, they must know the cost.

God, he really f*cking hates me doesn't he? lol

So what am I missing RichKen? VRFB is not new technology, so why has lithium-ion cornered the market and not VRFBs?

Surely can't be that stupid Ophidian, otherwise I wouldn't have invested in BMN. Have a nice weekend, lay off the TA.

Thanks LinkedDreams - I'll have a read over the weekend. As you state, it's great that company are backing themselves by installing a mini grid at Vametco. It's exactly the right thing to do - and not just for show, but because it's cost-effective.

Ha. I've changed tack Knuttie. I've invested a lot of money and I want facts about my investment, not drivel. Nothing I write on here is going to cause a stampede to the exit door.

So, apparently, the cost of Lithium-Ion batteries reduced by 35% in 2018. When do we get to see BE's plans to make VRFBs cost-competitive to that, and what's the impediment to releasing that information now?

"We run the risk of being a Markets play thing in the absence of solid information."

The espouser of technical analysis is concerned about being a market's plaything. You couldn't make it up.

@biganuf

Mastermines on Twitter. He's a credible source, so go talk to him.

@Headancer

What other share has the potential of BMN if VRFB's do take off? While I'm waiting, I'm in relatively safe territory. I'm in it long-term, so happy to wait and see, and already have cash tied up in other shares.

Besides, I didn't write anything negative. I simply wrote what I believe is actually happening without omitting what might not happen. If you're long, such speculation makes no difference.

@RichKen

First, I don't mean to be arrogant, definitely not - I'm just very straightforward in how I express myself. As you asked what I really think. As we know, BMN is making piles of cash from selling V to steel industry. The SP is undervalued on that basis and I expect it to be more fairly valued upon next announcement of financial results.

News of a dividend - this year - and LSE listing would provide further impetus to SP. That alone is reason to invest, but doesn't make BMN a multi-bagger. Yes, there's also room to expand production, but no licences mean no expansion. At the moment 'imminent' is a byword for 'never', and there will be a cost. So (A) What will the cost be and how will it be financed? (B) How long will that take? Years? Probably. What will the V price be by then?

For me, it's all about BE - that's the road to riches. Bushveld Energy has the potential to dwarf BMN's income. However, with no clear plan presented as to how VRFBs will be price competitive to lithium-ion, I can't get excited by the prospect yet. We're told of a leasing model, but what is it?

I'm not a dreamer, I'm a realist. How many AIM companies blag about XYZ only for it to never come to fruition? Most. Not because they haven't tried, simply that market forces sometimes work against them. The 'apparent' shelving of Rongke Power's massive VRFB project in Dailan is evidence of how difficult it will be for VRFBs to break through into the renewables market. The fact that this news has been totally ignored here I find bizarre, and evidence that certain information is deliberately withheld/ignored, which is not in the best interests of investors.

However, existing cash generation at BMN is very strong, therefore risk is practically non-existent for now until we know whether VRFBs will ever take off. That makes BMN a safe share to be in, and if it does have to go cap in hand to the market, it will be for good reason, not to keep the lights on like REDT.

Basically, I'm not interested in what VRFBs supposedly can and will do - it's all pointless until BE gets a foothold in the industry - if it ever does. For me, to believe it WILL happen, would be somewhat naive. I pray I'm wrong about that, and would be ecstatic to be proved wrong, but that doesn't mean my analysis of the situation is incorrect.

I'm not interested in price targets. All day, every day, all I read is, BMN will be xxx by next week blah blah. Next year it will be £2.00. In five years it will be £5.00. That's totally dishonest as long as there's no contracts signed for BE, and how can anyone genuinely predict that will happen? If you believe BMN alone can reach those heights alone, I've not yet seen a convincing argument for it.

I don't really see how any of this can be debated, but willing to discuss how you think any of it's inaccurate.

Apols. BBN's posts.

I'm deramping by advocating people read BMN's posts? One of the most bullish investors on here. Don't be silly.

@pb940 - yes, I already have a link to BBN's profile. Some days I only read his posts. I like to read the discussion board too but it's become unbalanced IMO.

@Sanchez599 - where's yours?