RE: RNS28 Mar 2019 16:31
@RichKen
First, I don't mean to be arrogant, definitely not - I'm just very straightforward in how I express myself. As you asked what I really think. As we know, BMN is making piles of cash from selling V to steel industry. The SP is undervalued on that basis and I expect it to be more fairly valued upon next announcement of financial results.
News of a dividend - this year - and LSE listing would provide further impetus to SP. That alone is reason to invest, but doesn't make BMN a multi-bagger. Yes, there's also room to expand production, but no licences mean no expansion. At the moment 'imminent' is a byword for 'never', and there will be a cost. So (A) What will the cost be and how will it be financed? (B) How long will that take? Years? Probably. What will the V price be by then?
For me, it's all about BE - that's the road to riches. Bushveld Energy has the potential to dwarf BMN's income. However, with no clear plan presented as to how VRFBs will be price competitive to lithium-ion, I can't get excited by the prospect yet. We're told of a leasing model, but what is it?
I'm not a dreamer, I'm a realist. How many AIM companies blag about XYZ only for it to never come to fruition? Most. Not because they haven't tried, simply that market forces sometimes work against them. The 'apparent' shelving of Rongke Power's massive VRFB project in Dailan is evidence of how difficult it will be for VRFBs to break through into the renewables market. The fact that this news has been totally ignored here I find bizarre, and evidence that certain information is deliberately withheld/ignored, which is not in the best interests of investors.
However, existing cash generation at BMN is very strong, therefore risk is practically non-existent for now until we know whether VRFBs will ever take off. That makes BMN a safe share to be in, and if it does have to go cap in hand to the market, it will be for good reason, not to keep the lights on like REDT.
Basically, I'm not interested in what VRFBs supposedly can and will do - it's all pointless until BE gets a foothold in the industry - if it ever does. For me, to believe it WILL happen, would be somewhat naive. I pray I'm wrong about that, and would be ecstatic to be proved wrong, but that doesn't mean my analysis of the situation is incorrect.
I'm not interested in price targets. All day, every day, all I read is, BMN will be xxx by next week blah blah. Next year it will be Β£2.00. In five years it will be Β£5.00. That's totally dishonest as long as there's no contracts signed for BE, and how can anyone genuinely predict that will happen? If you believe BMN alone can reach those heights alone, I've not yet seen a convincing argument for it.
I don't really see how any of this can be debated, but willing to discuss how you think any of it's inaccurate.