RE: Another week in the life of HBR26 Jul 2021 14:07
I think what everyone needs to remember is this:
1. This is not your usual steady state O&G business. The merger means there will be a period of uncertainty as the two companies are consolidated and synergies/cost savings are realised.
2. The PMO creditor shares have held the price down ever since the merger, so we never saw HBR rise with its peers and underlying crude prices. It certainly fell in line with the market though, which is why (in my view) we see ourselves trading at the highly discounted levels we see today.
3. I think the management team and the BoD will surprise many investors on this forum in the medium term. Patience is required as they look under the PMO hood and tidy up any faults (I.e. with Tolmount) that they might find. This will make HBR a stronger business long term.
4. The key catalyst that should dramatically increase the SP is the first results in September, as it feels like the market is waiting to see how the consolidated balance sheet looks and what kind of profits the combined business is throwing off. Direction on HBR’s debt repayment strategy will also be critical.
Basically, if you’re patient and crude prices don’t sh*t themselves in the short term (which is unlikely given OPEC’s small production increases), you will absolutely make money by buying at these levels.
All my opinion obviously and DYOR.