Member Info for ChrisToffer

Im not sure this is a good thing for Synairgen from a commercial standpoint. At risk of sounding like an insensitive profiteer;

SNG were incredibly fortunate with timing back in March whereby they had all of the supplies (placebo etc). And the framework in place to move very quickly from a COPD trial to the Covid hospital one. That allowed them to gather top class data in a much shorter time frame than the majority of competition.

For government to remove the very protocols that Synairgen have been following would remove that significant advantage.

We may need whatever we can get come winter and if people are dying then I fully agree that government may need to throw the book out, however if the approval process goes out the window it'll quickly dilute the market.

It's not a question of vaccines vs treatments. There are going to be many answers to this problem and it's a big enough market for both. What i would say is that the longer it takes the scientific community to understand the effects of antibodies and to develop vaccines that work, the higher the (short term) value of treatments that get approved. Long term value will depend on the amount and effectiveness of treatments/vaccines.

Seb, if the virus is no longer as lethal then why are European governments tightening lockdown restrictions?

The longer this goes on the longer SNG have to derisk the drug for licencees. The more it is de-risked, the higher the value.

Governments are a little late arriving to the party if we're talking about backing/investment. What could a government realistically expect in return for financial backing at this point? The UK government in particular have had months now to help promote the home trial and have been silent. They may try to score points on the success of this but they won't be getting it cheap.

Good point Ghia, If they can combine this with an inhaled steroid then the potential for would be incredible.

Hi Dave, people who need oxygen as opposed to ventilators. He says that in other trials (Farons Traukamine) oral steroids have compromised the interferon activity. It's essential that SNG001 maintains it's activity in those patients who need oxygen and are on steroids.

They did imply after 20th July that there may be a use for the drug with people on ventilators but they'd have to overcome the delivery method.

Richard confirms in interview that patients had same anti-viral effect when they were on steroids (1/3rd of the cohort). That's big news considering the Traukamine trial.

The timing does feel like it has significance that we are yet to fully understand. Well done everyone!

I can't believe Macosta still has the gall to post there this morning!

PPipp, as i understand it; it's simply an algorithm that allocates trades as either a buy or a sell, depending on if the transaction price is closer to the Bid or the Ask, at the time of transaction. You'll hear a lot of people saying their buys went in as sells like it's some sort of evil grand scheme, but I'm not so sure. I certainly wouldn't use it to gauge sentiment.

Ah I see where you're coming from now. There would of course be a huge shake if results were not good.

However I think that if COPD results were inconclusive we'd have heard by now because they would likely need more trial data to support the Covid approvals.

I think if they needed more trial data to support emergency approvals we'd also have heard by now. The fact its been so quiet for so long is reassuring In my mind.

Hi Woodstock, I think you may be underestimating the potential value of COPD. Its predicting to be +$30 billion market by the middle of the decade.

Theres been nothing to suggest Synairgen (or any licencees) cant corner a large share of that, whilst helping millions of sufferers.

Why would our large IIs have any influence on the timing of an RNS? None of the imminent major milestones are directly with those II's. If a milestone is reached over the weekend it'll be RNSd Monday regardless of the US markets.

Thats not strictly true Computer, the longer it goes on without a deal the longer SNG have to review COPD results, finish home trials and achieve an EUA; all of which will make the drug more expensive to a licencee.

Yea appreciate that Dave, i don't mean to sound too cynical when i say they let the cat out of the bag however something has went wrong in the order of things if that's been updated before an RNS. Mind you, the same thing happened in April on the MHRA amendment.

Yea you're right Rich, there are many ways it could play out. However, with the finish line on final approval looking like it's only 9 months away I personally think the large pharma companies will be all over this.

Completely agree Rich, my only concern is that the US website has let the cat out of the bag before SNG could get all their ducks in a row to deliver an RNS with the biggest impact.

Topupme, establishing an international arm to the trial whilst maintaining the same high standards would be a huge challenge in my mind. It may also be unnecessary if the drug is granted an EUA. An EUA that would only need to run until May next year when approval is gained anyway.

Shan there will have been activity but instead of a trial they'll likely be looking for an emergency use approval. The jury is still out on that but what'll come down to is whether they can convince the FDA's chief scientist to sign off on, "it is reasonable to believe that the known and potential benefits of COVID-19 convalescent plasma (SNG001 in our case) outweigh the known and potential risks of the drug for the treatment of patients hospitalized with COVID-19."

Topupme, with a target of early next year for final approval they wouldn't need to run a trial in the US if an EUA is granted there. Recognition of the route to final certification (i.e expanded trial details) would certainly help the EUA case.

Hopefully Mat. If anything, the update to the https://clinicaltrials.gov/ website shows that we're very close to finding out what's next!

'Arrogant: having or revealing an exaggerated sense of one's own importance or abilities.'

The only place arrogance has here is with Parsley and Macosta, and even then it's misplaced.