Member Info for ChrisToffer

Doc, how is the the exploration of SNG001 as a treatment for long covid nonsense? 300,000 people living with it in the UK alone and no treatments yet. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-55668650

Hi Marc I dont post on this board often but I have also invested here lately and am currently under water. However; the 29th September RNS states that phase 2 has the option of delivering up to 700 machines.

Phase one was 300 machines that brought in revenue of about 10m per week giving the company c.250m in revenue over a 24 week period. Thats about the same as the 2020 annual reported revenue which is currently valuing the company at c.500m (P/E of around 2).

If the option is taken up to deliver 700 machines at that same rate its 23m a week. If they get 12 months on that (entirely reasonable - they won't deploy all those machines for 6 months as all evidence points to long term testing capability); that will generate around 1.2B in annual revenue (52 weeks x 23m). At the current P/E ratio thats a 2.4B MCAP and a SP far higher than the ATH.

I'll be holding :)

No advice intended.

Zeroeth_Dimension not recognised either.

Benny you may need to set up a new account as a few people got kicked off last week

Hi Leaf i've tried messaging you but says user doesn't exist

That's a great point Simmo! I'd also add that the SP 52 week high was 260p after Manic Monday which equalled a market cap of £387m. The recent highs of 194p equals a market cap of 388m. Still undervalued in my mind but it shows that the company is re-testing all time highs.

https://www.sharebuyers.co.uk/shares/novacyt-graham-mullis-building-long-term-value/

It's hard to believe the US have agreed to sponsor the drug without some sort of guarantee on supply if it's successful. Until they've signed an actual agreement it's not material news so its anyone's guess when that will arrive.

Just said that they finish P2, apply for EUA then complete P3!!!!

Trinity man, no one here requested radio silence. Everyone is free to contact public figures and representatives. Recent posts here have demonstrated progress in doing so but only by those who went about it in a civil manner. Calling Horby et al. out and telling them they have blood on their hands, helps no one.

Thanks Mact, I see what you mean now. The smaller triangle suggests a reverse in the prevailing ascending channel then. Good luck.

Thanks Mact, i'm only really learning these now whilst things are. I'm invested in the fundamentals here. That link that you shared, would the current trend not be best represented by the ascending (top flat,bottom rising) scenario? With the SP at the bottom end of the channel, suggesting a move up?

We are expecting an Activ2 announcement from NIH/NIAID very soon and so that may prompt a rise anyway.

It certainly appears that SNG001 has moved ahead of it with inclusion onto Activ 2. They were both quoted in the senate document back in November.

Thanks Joey, its being trialled on Principle but according to https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN86534580, it only started about 3 weeks ago. Principle recruitment is slower than recovery (about 4000 patients recruited since the very start) so it may be another month or 2 before they clarify these findings.

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/comment/ridgeback-mercks-molnupiravir-for-covid-19-has-moa-administration-advantages-but-phase-iia-faces-execution-obstacles-may-have-value-gaps/

Some commentary on Mercks Molnupiravir. They originally had question marks over the toxicity of the drug and now ity appears some issues around the trial itself.

Also, from their own website, "The company anticipates initial efficacy data in the first quarter of 2021, which Merck plans to share publicly if clinically meaningful."
https://www.merck.com/news/merck-discontinues-development-of-sars-cov-2-covid-19-vaccine-candidates-continues-development-of-two-investigational-therapeutic-candidates/

Not the most confident statement.

Hi Tornado Tony/Mact, The daily chart has been on an ascending channel since the 18th December and the price is actually at the bottom of that. Of course a large sell off could change that but don't you think its more likely that we'll see a 10-20% rise on the expected US annoucement, rather than a sell-off?

That may be a factor however its only been 2 weeks since they announced they will be on Activ-2. Hardly a delay.

We should remember that the ELi Lily Activ 2 trial protocol is outdated and we're likely to see it overhauled for SNG001 inclusion as it'll be the first drug administered at home. Therefore the RNS release at the start of last week is the best indicator of SNG001 activ trial parameters. That says its a blinded trial and that they'll conduct a P2.

Haha Enrico! :)

Matterhorn, Activ 2 is blinded (as opposed to double-blinded). A DMC will be monitoring results as they come in.

Yea its deffo coming and its gonna lead the way for home treatments in the US.

When i think about that, the fact this only has a 350m market cap is laughable.

It is frustrating Doc, though it could be for a number of reasons. E.g Commercial sensitivity or getting ahead of the science (until further readouts).

There is no other drug at this stage of development that fits the description though.

BTW, the French scientists conducting the examination trial have also acknowledged the Synairgen patents here;

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphar.2020.592543/full

NB: "The more direct approach of pulmonary IFN-ß nebulization is presently explored by Wilkinson et al. in collaboration with Synairgen, in a clinical trial with SNG001, a nebulizable form of IFN-ß-1a (NCT04385095). However, these approaches are moving toward patent-protected products, with limited supply."