Member Info for ChrisToffer

You don't need us to answer it, here is the head of the new US establishments response answering your question; https://twitter.com/BrenchleyCap/status/1351459009505722369?s=09

"US National Antiviral Program is in the plan and is absolutely essential!"

Its coming!

Org, the CEO is on record as saying the price is around £2000/$3000 and even said it may demand a higher fee. This isn't a cancer treatment and cannot even be compared to other interferon applications like MS because none of those conditions are bringing economies to their knees. The US just set aside 1.5 trillion dollars to fix this problem therefore a treatmemt that helps to do that will demand a higher fee. Its simple supply and demand.

They were sending patients home with the nebuliser during P2 trials. Thats nothing new. It was addressed at the first p2 trial amendment in April and likely was a key factor in home trial approval.

Haha where do they find these ******s

The science is saying this thing will become endemic WITH successful vaccines therefore there will always be a market for therapeutics and £10(2 Billion) is a low valuation for any authorised life saving treatment. Thats why I'm saying its the bottom a of a valuation range.

I keep coming back to it, but Regeneron received a 2.6 Billion order for their mabs from the US. 1 order that would blow a £10 valuation out of the water here.

Good summary Porky! I would say that £10 (2B MCAP) is probably lower end of the potential valuation should this thing be successful.

The supply is something that would need to be addressed and an update is overdue on that. The expected Activ 2 inclusion would not come unless supply can be met. Bidens remit is not just development of therapeutics, but ensuring they can be delivered.

Its worth noting that RM did not do a proactive interview after P3 start which suggests there's more news to come.

The confidence of Holgate de-risks the trials in my mind and the orders will be along the lines of the Regeneron order, if not more due to the accessibility and potentially higher efficacy. Thats 2.65B from just the US. 1 order.

£10 is a £2billion valuation. Although I will be keeping an open mind when the price rises i think 2 Billion is the very bottom the potential value of this so its unlikely im in that 99%.

Shan its a double blind trial so thatvoatient may have received placebo. No one knows.

No worries, one of the SG016 home trial sites was listed in Belfast if they've any way of claiming residence in the North.

Hi Fruitsnveg, unfortunately Ireland are not on it.

https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/trial/2020-004743-83/GB

He knows it Doc, he wouldnt say, "we know it works" unless he knew it. That is integrity. They now need to demonstrate that it works by following the established process to approval, P3.

Wrong Doc, it was actually his change in language around May/June that encouraged me to invest so heavily pre-20th July. When discussing the science before P2 readout he would always say things like, "we don't know this yet".

The man oozes integrity and would not make claims on that the drug works without knowing it. If he says the drug works you can take that to the bank.

I won't be having sleepless nights. The situation (unfortunately) has resulted in a perfect storm and, though not without risk, having followed Stephen Holgate for a long while now i can say with confidence that he doesn't go on international television and say,"we know the drug is safe, we know it works, we know there are zero side effects" unless he is certain that the trial will demonstrate that.

Does DP in DPC stand for Dumb Punter? Hahaha

YouTube Sky news Live and rewind about an hour

Mutations, care homes, home use, he deffo hit all of the buzzwords. Great interview!

HarChris, I'm certainly expecting an RNS for the US start. I suspect we could see it kicking off with huge fanfare there alongside activ 2.

Regenerons casirivimab and imdevimab antibody ****tail were shown to reduce COVID-19-related hospitalization or emergency room visits in patients at high risk for disease progression within 28 days and that was enough for an EUA and US government orders of 1.5 million doses.

The most recent order of $2.625B for 1.25 million doses equates to a treatment price of $2100.

£2000 is fair value.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/regeneron-announces-us-government-agreement-to-purchase-additional-covid-19-antibody-****tail-doses-301206988.html

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-monoclonal-antibodies-treatment-covid-19

I think you've kind of answered your own question the Gareth. Their entire healthcare system is costly for inpatients. Think back to remdesivir getting its EUA based on a reduced time in hospital. It didn't make anyone better, just got them out the door faster. Now US hospitals are brimming therefore a treatment that's easy to self administer at home, whilst patients are self isolating is, in essence, the answer.