Member Info for ChrisToffer

Thanks everyone. I was aware of winterplex kits that were unlikely to be used due to the flu disappearing! I was reading into your useful database earlier Shaun (thank you) and i think i'm right in saying that some of the kits can be used with other platforms?

I'll revisit my math tomorrow. As it stands though, even assuming the NHS took PROmate for the entire 14 week initial term its still only a fraction of overall testing capacity and it still doesn't explain how they have enough for this whole year (unless the machines are a limiting factor). Appreciate there are a lot of unknowns/assumptions though

Thanks Shaun and Wilson. Ive been doing some calcs on this today with regards the UK testing numbers and the DHSC contract. Please correct me if i have anything fundamentally wrong with this;

The machines are around 10k each so 300 of them is £3m. The initial 14 weeks of the contract were for £150m and the extension £100m for 10 weeks. From that i assumed that the machine rollout and support services made up around £10m and £10m/week afterwards would be generated from kit sales.

To meet that £10m/week, the company would need to deliver around 1200 kits at £1200, per day. In your research, does that sound reasonable? Do the company have that sort of capacity? I appreciate this is not an exact science but your input would be greatly appreciated.

Thats probably sensible as it gives them the whole of Q2 to sort those issues out and they could release the results with a Q2/H1 trading update.

Love the bit 'as part of the versalab network'. Great reminder that we're still to see any posted revenue from Versalab, SNPSig and Variplex. Theyre all going to be in demand!

Done Wilson! Thanks Airline boy. I checked and Fit2fly are also on the gov approved test and release list. :)

Fair play HarChris. If i had the capital to average down i would! Good luck man!

'22billion allocated not spent and you have to be chosen to get any share of that. Are Novacyt? Would suggest this is looking more and more unlikely.'

Yes, they are an approved supplier on the 3bn tender with an newly established sales network in place to capitalise. Disputes happen on contracts, that's why the process is written into them. It would be folly for the government to put overall testing capacity at risk by blacklisting a company who has provided so much to that. Additionally, they have private sector customers who have been approved as suppliers on the 15bn framework so even if the gov don't award NCYT any direct work they'll still supply into the tender indirectly.

£22Bn (and counting) of allocated government funds to testing over the next 4 years would suggest its only getting started. The private sector will likely pick up a bigger tab!

On 17th Sep 2020 the company announced that it generated 72m euro in revenue and the SP was 375-385p.

They generated more in the first Quarter of 2021 an the SP is currently lower. Madness.

Still no evidence of II's reducing since 9 April - though i try not to place too much emphasis on II movement.

All things considered, this company is well positioned to capitalise on the growing variant testing and private travel market and with the UK opening up there will certainly be a rise in cases which will certainly increase demand for tests.

As the SP drops to unimaginable lows i find myself writing out some notes (good and bad).
Cash in bank
Mcap £260m
EV amazingly only £100-150m
Earning 10’s of millions a quarter
Cutting edge products released in Q1 – more to come in Q2
2020 Q4 revenue in doubt
Dispute with DHSC casting a shadow – unlikely to affect future sales due successful framework awards.

UK opening up;
cases will rise (SP tends to follow, sales definitely will)
possibly less death due to vaccination efforts however that's unlikely to affect testing market
testing needs will remain, PCR for critical settings and travel
variant testing to rise (market for SNPSig, Variplex *no revenue posted for these yet as just released*)

Investing.com has 2nd June as next earnings date (under NCYT ticker) - not sure how much to read into this though.

https://www.investing.com/equities/novacyt?cid=1054961

Just a wee reminder of the Versalab video featuring Cambridge Clinical Labs CEO.

https://youtu.be/2szenKirg8o

No probs at all Wilson! Where some find disappointment others see opportunity. :)

What we now have is approval to supply directly to government under lot 1 (as demand dictates) and established private healthcare customers who can also tap into a separate government tender under lot 4. 2 positives!

Yes thanks Wilson! I was aware of the 3bn tender was just trying to get a straight answer from Davand.

Very confident that NCYT can benefit from lot 4 though, even if they weren't named. :)

Just seen it. Apologies, it was released under PHE. Like you say, Cambridge Clinical Labs are on there and their CEO Tony Cooke was in the Novacyt Versalab video!

Where's your link Davand?

Lot 4 hasn't been awarded yet Davand.

Apologies if I misunderstood.

Badly, that just confirms that the performance of their assay is not affected by variants. Thats not the same as SNPSig.