Member Info for ChrisToffer

Hello all hope your having a good Bank Holiday weekend!

I just went to katalyst for a 24 hour-guaranteed fit 2 fly test and the test went into a bag stating 'to be used with PROmate'.

Nothing surprising in that but it got me thinking that to my knowledge there is still no comparable competition to the Q16s/Q32 that allow high throughput POC testing in that timeframe. Is anyone aware of any new market entries?

Morning Wilson, I just meant that even a 1% short would be eclipsed by current daily trading volumes so I would not give too much credit to them for the current rise. I'm still very happy they are closing because of the influence that you describe, on low volume, red days.

Hi Brent, 0.5% is only 350k shares so they could easily have cleared that on any of the last 3 trading days and still only have been a fraction of the daily volume.

I think their short gets far too much attention here tbh. There is a lot more going on than the closing of that 0.5% (or even 1%).

21ATS, settlement of the dispute will of course see a huge boost to share price but the company have presented a strong case for investment this week regardless of DHSC. 100m revs in a growing private sector could see a rerate on it's own.

I've posted this article before but feel its appropriate to this conversation.

A little dated but the author argues that, in the absence of recurring accounts that justify PE ratio, a EV/FCF ratio should be used and compared against forecasted growth.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt0106-29

Great posts Soder! Thank you.

Determining multiples appears to be more of an art than a science however they are linked to growth and this week company has demonstrated strong private sector growth and backed it up by forecasting further growth in this area.

Yea I found it very interesting. Its hard to apply PE to this company because it is so early in the growth journey but there is no getting away from the fact it is generating serious cash flow.

HarChris, this is a good article, if a little dated, that describes an alternative method of valuation using EV and FCF. Although EV/FCF ratio should be calculated TTM (trailing 12 months), I ran my estimated numbers on the known and expected (good and bad) cash position based on no dhsc payments/7m per month for 2021 (bad) and dhsc payments/10m month (good).

The result is an extremely undervalued mcap, in any scenario. But i found that the longer the market cap stays where it is now the quicker the EV/FCF ratio is going to drop undsr 1 (industry averages are 15-20).

https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt0106-29

Its not that big a position to be fair. 0.5% is only 350,000 shares which is not that far off the MAs for volume.

21ATS, I've given this some thought as well.

If the DHSC contract is mutually exclusive from the 3bn NHS framework agreement and NCYT continue to deliver under the framework then they give away their dispute leverage at a time when trusts will be crying out for everything they need.

In other words, Despite the framework allowing NCYT to continue to deliver tests to NHS labs, they'll surely try to leverage the huge demand for tests to get payment for the outstanding DHSC invoices, because once they start delivering tests into NHS trusts again, there's nothing to stop DHSC playing the long(er) game on their payments.

Thanks Poidster. I agree Soder, even in the unlikely outcome of an entire 129m refund, the start of sales back into NHS labs would likely have a positive effect on the SP. We would effectively be looking at around 150m in sales for both 2020 and 2021.

This dispute, along with some questionable and badly timed RNS announcements, has held back the SP through numerous positive announcements. A resolution could see a very fast reversal.

Thanks to Martin on twatter for this well posed question;
Victoria scientific, NCYT stateside distributor, have been receiving exponential increase in orders the last few weeks.

https://twitter.com/Victory_Sci/status/1423714670561701897?s=19

Porky, I'm not sure thats correct. Half year results are not audited.

Macmdude/captain hindsight/septic peg!

He's not the messiah, he's a very naughty boy!

Had a bad feeling this morning due to the wording of that RNS. Although engagement with shareholders is welcome, it suggests they'll be discussing the 22 June update. Well why not do that on the 22nd of feckin June?

The cynics (bears) will read that RNS as confirmation that we'll have no news between now and then which, I believe, contributed to this afternoons dip.

It's even more frustrating because of yesterday's tweet on the 3G test which should have been RNSd. I just hope that its getting rolled into a larger R&D update, like the one we had in April.

Youve had audited results showing 277m of sales last year and guidance for this year of between 7m and 10m a month sales, outside of DHSC. 100m projection for 2021 is stillmassive sales and would warrant a higher share price than the current one.

Unfortunately, until that elephant in the room is addressed and they tell us exactly how much of the dhsc Invoices will be paid, we will continue to see this sort of price action.

I did find it strange that they mentioned the 22nd June update and are having a Q&A thatll be 8 weeks after that announcement. That would be entirely pointless but, to be honest, it wouldn't surprise me with the way they have behaved this year. I find myself hoping (not expecting) therell be news beforehand, else I won't be attending as it would be a waste of time.

Just watched the 2nd video that describes the ongoing daily bioinformatics work. That established concern, on its own, is worth so so much.

With the rest of the sector booming and testing through the roof I think we're finally about to see some movement here. Good luck everyone

Funny we were discussing the travel market expansion and NCYT put out that brilliant tweet on the 3G test.

SP has bottomed out now we just that trigger to send it on a run.