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Current price drop based on fear that Avacta has missed the boat. Time to buy is when others are fearful - as a well known share guru said. Avacta's LFT is integral to the government's plan to open travel and mass events. Football fans are currently complaining that the Caraboa Cup final is one giant scientific experiment and they are not wrong. In my opinion the new LFTs will be trialed in this environment as fans will need to take LFT and PCR tests. Should this "giant scientific experiment" be successful, then it is goodbye to PCR and hello to LFT.
Over the last few days Avacta has become an excellent case study for emotional v rational thinking. The experts tell us that share prices are dictated by emotions rather than facts. It has been well flagged that testing is the interim route to freeing up travel and mass gatherings. The government has awarded contracts for the manufacture of millions of tests. We await confirmation that this will be Avacta's.
1. Paul Hill arranged the interview to show off his new found research knowledge of Avacta.
2. Al was extremely confident
3. Those who bought earlier this week in anticipation of some groundbreaking news and share rise were mistaken.
4. Those of us who hold Avacta shares have a lot to look forward to.
From Telegraph online - which is why we will need vaccine AND test certification to travel.
"Transmission of Covid-19 drops by at least 30 per cent after a person is vaccinated, a new study suggests.
Public Health Scotland and the University of Glasgow assessed 300,000 NHS workers between December 8 - the first day of vaccination in Scotland - and March 3 to give the first direct knowledge of how the jabs impact transmission.
The study assessed the records of people who live with both vaccinated and unvaccinated health care workers, finding those with who had a single dose were at least 30 per cent less likely to pass the virus on.
Given that people living with healthcare workers could also catch the virus from other sources, the 30 per centfigure is a low estimate.
For those with both doses of the inoculation, they were at least 54 per cent less likely to pass on the virus.
Dr Dianne Stockton, the Public Health Scotland lead for the Covid-19 Vaccination Surveillance Programme, said the results were "encouraging", but stressed this should not make the public complacent."
The government is concerned over the non compliance of older vaccinated people. Fully vaccinated former labour minister John “two jabs” Prescott said that from now on he will be hugging his grandchildren and giving a Glasgow kiss to anyone who tried to stop him.
The furore from the recent interview of a petulant, vindictive prima donna continues. Andrew Marr reports that Matt Han**** confided that a cabinet member made him cry by calling him names. Han**** would not name the person but said it was not his best friend Boris added Marr.
Embarrassed at Carrie’s proposed £200k makeover of number 10. Boris Johnson today showed his recent Ikea purchase to journalists. “ I bought this Fekken light for less than a tenner” boasted Johnson.
More details here:
https://www.headforpoints.com/2021/03/05/british-airways-33-covid-test/
BJ Morning Al. Just ringing to ask if you have an affimer to improve hearing. I was questioned by that pip squeak Ashworth last week in parliament. He said he thought mass swearing should continue and did I agree? I replied that I did and I enjoy a good cuss myself. Very embarrassing as he actually asked did I think mask wearing should continue.
AL. Sorry prime minister. You will need to wait the result of our trials of affimers in humans.
BJ. Ah yes. Saw your interview on the web last week. Very good it was too and I’ve tucked a few Avacta shares in Wilf’s junior ISA.
AL. Wouldn’t that be insider dealing P.M.?
BJ. Don’t be daft Al. He only said his first words a few days ago.
Al. What did he say first? I read that Prince Harry’s little one said “Crocodile”
BJ Well I did think he said “dada” when I was reading him Worzel Gummage but Carrie has one of those baby milestone charts and for his first words she has written “damn mutt”. Not sure where he got that from.
Anyway about your tests. I am sorry about Porton Down. Apparently they had been storing those frozen covid samples with novichok and magnums. Don’t blame you for setting up your own real life tests. Be glad when we can start using proper ones.
Have to go now Al. Time to read Wilf his morning story. It’s the one about the dalmations and Nicola – I mean Cruella.
This is why Avacta will sell all the tests they make:
1. Travel. Vaccines reduce the chances of hospitalisation by approx 90%. Therefore the vast majority of countries (including our own) will insist on a passport as a condition of entry. No country wants the additional burden of foreigners in their hospitals. However as vaccines may reduce the risks of transmission, they do not eliminate it and so all passengers will need a negative test and the only feasible test for the millions of frustrated passengers is a rapid test.
2. Mass gatherings in the UK. Politically vaccine passports are out. Misinformed music festival organisers are saying they will not let people in without a vaccine passport and soon will be put right by scientists and government and this will change to no one being let in without a negative test.
I take no credit for pointing out the bleeding obvious.
"While Avacta continues to be in dialogue with the DHSC, and with other organisations in the UK and abroad, with a view to future supply of its rapid antigen test, it is prioritising the full clinical validation of its nasal swab-based SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen test as a pre-requisite for CE marking and broad commercialisation."
What this says to me is that possibly all is not going swimmingly with the DHSC. The own backside watchers in the DHSC are not happy with a test not passing Porton Down's spiked samples. After all you can't be sacked for wasting money on a poor performing field test like Innova when Porton Down have said it is ok. Maybe the DHSC is trying to do an EU and put a squeeze on the price. In which case the best strategy is to do your own clinical trials and show that there is a huge market out there for an accurate rapid test. In my view Al's strategy is on the money. Interested in what others think.
Here is part 1 if you missed it:
AL Good evening Prime Minister. How are You?
BJ Not good - just been woken from my power nap by that damned dog.
AL Is that your dog Dylan?
BJ Yes. Carrie wanted to call him Dougal after that shaggy haired dog in the Magic Roundabout but Dom vetoed it and so we called him Dylan after the rabbit. Trouble is he has terrible wind. I had Ursula round before Christmas and he dropped a pearler. “I'm very sorry about that. I must apologise” I said to Ursula.
Al What did Ursula say?
BJ she replied “ You are so honest Boris. If you had not said anything I would have sworn it was the dog”. Preferred Junker myself – now he could organise a p**s up in a brewery. Sorry Al I digress. Nearly there?
AL Just got the hall to decorate and then I’ve finished.
BJ Actually I meant our NHS branded tests. Our very own Sovereign Test Devices. Good name eh Al? Couldn’t fit it on the slides so they are being labelled STDs.
AL Will it be you or Mr Han**** who launches the tests?
BJ No way will Zebedee be involved – I mean Matt. Carrie calls him Zebedee because he looks like he has a spring stuck up his backside. Have to go now Al. Wilf needs burping. Don’t forget the invitation to the house warming!
Part 2
BJ Morning Al. Just ringing to say that I am absolutely delighted.
AL Are you referring to our LFTs Prime Minister?
BJ No. No. I mean that anti-wind affimer you sent. Worked a treat. Carrie says she can lie on both sides in bed now.
AL The affimer was for the dog.
BJ Bugger
Al How is Dylan?
BJ Had the Blindperson of the Year at no 10 yesterday and the little blighter found my secret stash of Viagra. Talk about give a dog a boner! It took two of us to prise him off the blindman’s leg. He was very good about. Put his hand in his pocket and gave Dylyn a biscuit. “That’s very charitable of you giving him a biscuit” I said. “Aye” the blindman said “I wanted to find out which end his head is so that I can kick his arse!”.
Anyway to the tests. We need as many as we can get.
AL. What about those bum tests?
BJ Innova? We have lots of those.
AL I was thinking about the anal swab test.
BJ Couldn’t think how those work. Passed them on to Matt to get to the bottom of things.
Working on my roadmap at the moment. I asked Vax Tam for an analogy that I could use to explain the map and he said “Ask a policeman”. Well I talked to that copper at the front and he hadn’t the faintest. Must get back to the map Al. Wouldn’t do to turn up at 5pm on Monday and say the dog has eaten it. Bye
“Experience of any other disease you care to mention — 1918 Spanish influenza, cholera, ebola to name a few — tells us that epidemics rumble on with a slowly decreasing number of small, focal outbreak clusters,” says Jewell. Sometimes, no matter how good a vaccine programme, these clusters will be serious. “As a society we’ll need to remain vigilant well into 2022 to detect such clusters, with self-isolation becoming the norm.”
Dido Harding will, then, be in a job for a fair bit longer yet. So too will mask manufacturers and hand sanitiser firms. Most of us have still not used a lateral flow test. By this time next year it’s likely that few of us will not have. Well into 2022 restaurants could find in-house sales less profitable as tables stay apart, and takeaways booming as people stay at home.
Just as vaccine manufacturers in this pandemic have experienced the sort of technological supercharging seen by aviation in the Second World War, so has testing and its infrastructure. As we tamp down clusters and keep an eye on variants, if anything, its importance will grow.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/well-get-our-lives-back-even-without-a-ve-day-for-covid-knfxwvvhd
"Allowing travellers quarantining in hotels to leave their rooms with guards is "very risky", Australian epidemiologist Professor Michael Toole has warned.
Prof Toole is from the Burnet Institute in Melbourne, Victoria, which has entered a third lockdown after an outbreak of cases thought to be linked to a quarantine hotel.
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme there had been coronavirus cases in the city where an infected guest opened their room door and "with the positive pressure this kind of fog of virus went out into the corridor, travelled down and infected hotel staff".
Asked for his views on people being allowed to leave their rooms in UK quarantine hotels while accompanied by guards, Prof Toole said: "We've learnt that that is a very risky procedure."
It is also understood that UK hotel staff will not be subject to regular testing, according to the BBC."
From Telegraph on line.