Member Info for Chinasyndrome

Hi Steadfast, As a Long Term Holder I definitely do not begrudge Management achieving their KPI's and getting just reward. You only have to look at the competition to realize the outstanding Performance of PRE against GGG, PEK, LYC, ARU, HAS and every other hopeful to see that our Management has way outperformed them over the last four years. Shareholders ratified these Incentives and the stipulated Goals have been achieved, anybody begrudging them now is not only mean spirited but also ungrateful.

I think you are fairly close to the mark Mumbles, Using yesterdays prices I get a Basket Price of US$24,750 for a 90% concentrate

But as I said in an earlier post, I prefer to look at the In-situ value of the ore when comparing deposits ie Longonjo dirt is currently worth US$550/t which at a 81% recovery would yield $450/t-mined.

Give it up Dumbo, you have already exposed yourself as a Down-ramper, so nothing you can say from here on will have any credibility. As to RBW, good luck I think they will need it.

Yes you are right, Anybody could build a processing facility ~ However where will they get their Feedstck from ?

Most of the potential mines are a fraction of the size of Longonjo, and nearly all have issues with ESG, even Lynas is at Risk until it can get Kalgoorlie operational Greenland are in all sorts of trouble, Peak are still waiting for their SML, MP have yet to find their deposit; there are a bunch of possible deposits in the Canadian Tundra that can only export in mid winter and Tomtor which is even worse and is miles from anywhere. Yes somebody might be able to round up all the minor deposits but what a Metallurgical nightmare that would be !

Pensana has a large guaranteed supply and will be producing into a Market that will be Demanding at least three times projected production capacity. The real question is should they double down now or later ?

Last time i ran my numbers I used NdO2 @ US$87/kg

Now everybody realizes that the Chinese Government is currently manipulating the prices to discourage the West from developing Process capacity. That is what you do if you want to preserve a Monopoly, and that is also why the further up the supply chain Pensana can get the better the Margins. Magnets prices are still above $40/kg and yet contain only about 300gms of NdPr !

It seems that we are being trolled by a well know contributor to Hot Copper, either that or Dumbpunter and Charles_H are copying argument put forward by Setfire2thehive, The spread sheets miscalculations and Basket Price drivel are his constant trade marks ! while pumping an Ionic Clay deposit in Uganda. Which IMO has little hope of ever making a profit, especially if operated at full ESG Compliance . Last time I looked they had a stated mining cost of around US$12.60/t and Revenues in the $10-12/t range ! and that is before performing any EIS to determine actual Rehabilitation costs !

While some people like to calculate a Basket Price by determining the value of 900kg of TREO concentrate, I prefer to calculate the recovered Value from one In-situ ton of Ore, which for Longonjo (the mine) is somewhere between US250-500/t depending on partial (81%) recoveries and if it is weathered or fresh Ore.

Don't hold your breath, and certainly not if that 20% remainder is La Ce !

Using RBW's Gakara as an example is fraught with danger, it is a one off, the ore is/was hand picked, that means there is a huge amount of waste between the Ore veins, mechanizing will then mean that everything mined will have to be processed, what effect will that have on the financials ? Pensana will probably take concentrate from SA so long as it is clean of U & Th, from what I am hearing that will go for anybody else's product.

Charley, I appreciate that you have a lot of faith in your own numbers, sadly I an many others have differing results .
But given that start of production is at least eighteen months away and we really have very little detail on the whole process, I think it is safe to assume that NOBODY can have an accurate answer.

By the way you are starting to sound very much like SF2TH, have you managed to work out how your spreadsheets fails to show that clay mining will actually make a loss. Basket Price / (grade * recovery) must > OPEX

If you make enough Assumptions you can disprove anything !
First glaring assumption, Cost to produce NdPr and TREO are the same
Second Adamas projections from 2019, were already way out of kilter by 2021 ~ current drop is due to Political pressure which can not be maintained without China shooting itself in the foot.
For what it is worth, I suspect that US$3+B is more realistic given they will probably increase production from Y3 ->

Mumbles ~ If you look at the BP it clearly says NPV8 ie 8 Years which corresponds to how far the JORV Reserve has been drilled out, There is nothing to fear about the Resource running out, last estimation was well North of 900,000t NdPr.

There is little point in calculating a life of mine NPV as Inflation usually makes anything beyond 10 years nonsensical.

The BIG take ion this is that Pensana can drastically increase production at anytime they choose to.

As to being Part ESG compliant ! it is a bit like a ***** saying (edited) she is still partly a virgin !!

How on Earth can Lynas claim ESG credentials when they are about to get kicked out of Malaysia because the locals are concerned that their Environment is being polluted !!! The reason nobody is getting any ESG benefit yet is because nobody complies YET !

Well said Joe, Also consider that the marginal cost of having a Nd motor is minimal in the costing of a whole car, the big cost is in the batteries. Then there is the Marketing advantage ~ "This car is made from ESG sourced materials" will be a strong selling point to Western consumers.

Charles, Please make up your mind. you are becoming transparent !

Yesterday you said ESG would provide little or no price advantage to UK/EU/USA producers, Today you are jumping up and down saying Me Too, Me Too for Lynas, Your down ramping may not be as obvious as your predecessor but it does show.

I think it is about time that somebody gives Amanda a real headache,

To the best of my knowledge - YES

Charlie boy, Arn't you forgetting that Lynas is moving to Kalgoorlie ? One of the most expensive towns in Australia to operate in, The cost of Labor, consumables, electricity, water, fuel, transport will be several times higher than in Malaysia, And they still have to build their plant and convince the locals that the dumps don't present a health hazard.

Then you are quoting SMM pricing, with no ESG costed in and definitely on the nose with USA/EU consumers, NY pricing is considerably higher and once Pensana start producing the LME will be operating an Independent Exchange.

Lynas OPEX is only going to get higher, their strip ratio is increasing, While Pensana has not even started 'Optimizing" its Operations ~ I have not started up a mine yet where considerable cost savings have not been identified during commissioning and the first year of operation.

If I were you I would be worrying about Lynas, If Amanda sees Pensana as being such serious competition that she has to organize a bunch of armatures to down ramp the opposition, she must be feeling insecure ?

Hi Mike, might I suggest that you have another look at the Longonjo geology and mineral Resource, Only a small fraction has so far been converted into JORC compliance, and only a fraction of the deposit has been drilled out. They were talking about a One Million ton contained NdPr Resource three years back ! That was before they verified that the deposit continued at depth and they have not even drilled the Northern side of the hill yet !

The only constraint on delivering more than 4500tNdPr.pa will be Saltend's processing capacity

@Onlybpc, Correct The number of shares on issue x what buyers are prepared to pay at any given time.
It is also equal to the number of shares on issue x Earnings Per Share x the PE ratio.

IMF gave Angola US$772M loan extension which takes the pressure of Sovereign Risk (China debt)
Oil is back above Angola's production cost US$60bbl (Covid retraction had hit hard)
Roskill published a report with Pensana being identified as the potential supplier of Magnet Metals to UK/EU

Fears of any Sovereign Risk with Angola are rapidly diminishing, Angola which was rumored to be in danger of defaulting on its Chinese loans due to the impact from Covid19 on its Oil Revenues has now turned the corner with West Texas and Brent Crude now well above the US$60bbl break even price. Add to that yesterdays news that the IMF has extended its Loans a further US$772M which should effectively remove any further pressure from China.

https://www.miragenews.com/imf-executive-board-completes-fifth-review-of-574980/