Member Info for chilting

The whole retail sector is badly down this week with the majority, if not all, trading at their years low.
How soon that will change is now more or less totally down to the economy and how long this retched recession lasts.

The only plus is M&S themselves, I think they are more recession proof than most retailers and the management team is very strong. Also the restructuring over the last few years has also given the business greater resilience.

We probably won't be seeing any dividends any time soon, but MKS remains a firm hold and will become a strong buy when the economic gloom starts to lift.

Another plus is that those of us who invested just after the pandemic lows are still showing a good percentage return.

mrc
I didn't say that I wasn't interested in Enquest.
I simply said that i wouldn't comment on Enquest because I didn't hold the stock.
Its the whole energy sector that interests me, especially at the moment with the market falling.
Just to say, Enquest doesn't exist in a bubble, market and political forces play it like a football.

Realistically all we can hope for is that the SP stays north of 700p.

Pokerchips
It seems that Powell's comments have had a very negative effect on the markets this week with Brent also following them down.
I think we have to assume that we will get a deeper recession than was predicted a few months ago.

Kraken
I have been careful not to mention Enquest, my negative comments are related to the wider market and the global economy, I have no intention of de-ramping Enquest.
The recession danger remains and that could affect us all, but as you say at the moment many local businesses are thriving, especially those that manufacture their own products or offer essential services.

e121
Powell talked about the need to continue to increase interest rates and that they would likely remain high in his speech last Friday.
Since then markets have tanked along with Brent.
I think we have to now assume that we are not going to escape with the shallow recession that most predicted, to let the world economy recover after Covid.
What we could see is what you fear, a much deeper recession with any recovery unlikely in 2023.

mrc
Apologies if you think its garbage, but taking a narrow view and just investing in oil is not a great investment strategy in the short term and particularly in the long term.

mrc
As I have said before, understanding how the energy market will move now and in the future is a key driver with all investments - hence my interest in carbon and green energy.
Its vital for all investors to take a broader view from all perspectives.
The main question now is - are recession fears overblown?

e121
Gas is the main problem - I agree.

My comment was directed at how the oil price would deal with a recession.

It would certainly be an irony if high prices and supply problems for gas had an adverse effect on the oil market - but I guess that looks like a possibility.
Although the Germans are doing well building winter gas supplies and gas production in the US has increased substantially.

mrc
Its blindingly obvious that in a recession energy use reduces and all the calculations about supply not meeting demand have to be rewritten.

Also, the imperative for world economies is that energy costs are reduced, hence the drive by energy companies and Governments with carbon based and green solutions to increase supply.

Sooner or later there will be a glut of supply, a recession will make a big difference to the timing of the glut, hence my predication that oil prices will start to fall.

Comptuter909
Its blindingly obvious the company is short of cash.
We can only speculate about the suppliers payment terms.
Just be pleased that all the legwork finally looks like yielding the cash.

This is overwhelmingly positive.
At last we can see the pipeline starting to turn legwork into cash.

I don't think anyone really has a true picture of how energy supply and demand will pan out over the next few years, least of all our political leaders.
There are so many variables and with green energy also contributing - note Hornsea 2 windfarm came on line today - the picture becomes even more confusing.
One thing is for sure, energy will remain a high profile public issue for the foreseeable future and energy firms will be fair game for politicians to squeeze financially.

More here
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-jtc-raises-2022-oil-market-surplus-forecast-2022-08-31/

My own conclusions but based on a Reuters commentary article.

There is a very fine dividing line between over supply and under supply.
While the consensus is clearly that the market is under supplied it doesn't take much to change that, especially with Russia continuing to produce at pre war levels and the US building supply all the time.

As an investor its important to keep an open mind.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/saudi-jawboning-up-crude-oil-prices-contrasts-with-soft-physical-market-russell-2022-08-30/

Sentiment regarding a recession has knocked back oil prices today and demand from China is still very lacklustre.

Its unlikely OPEC can do much to lift prices - they are already failing to meet their quotas and it would need a very big cut from them to make a difference.

US production is increasing and Russian production is still at pre war levels - Russia are still sending oil to China and India.

So, it looks like Brent will probably trade between $75 and $85 into 2023, rather less than what what predicted earlier in the year and as production levels continue to recover from the Covid shock even that could be optimistic.

This has to be good news for the economy, especially the fight against inflation, maybe recovery will be quicker than expected.

Sentiment regarding a recession has knocked back oil prices today and demand from China is still very lacklustre.

Its unlikely OPEC can do much to lift prices - they are already failing to meet their quotas and it would need a very big cut from them to make a difference.

US production is increasing and Russian production is still at pre war levels - Russia are still sending oil to China and India.

So, it looks like Brent will probably trade between $75 and $85 into 2023, rather less than what what predicted earlier in the year and as production levels continue to recover from the Covid shock even that could be optimistic.

I think we will see an energy cap when we finally get a new PM.
The idea could be to fix energy tariffs for the long term with the aim of capping prices now with a subsidy and then earning revenue as energy prices fall. Clearly small businesses would also need their energy tariffs capped.
The revenue could then contribute to funding for energy independence.

Twaddle = frustration and the mess politicians create in our economy.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree.

The trouble is that we will only find out who is right in hindsight and even then there may be another black swan on the horizon or on the plus side someone might knock off Putin.