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Looking at the timeline of past events and RNS'es I theorised that August would be the month to announce the updated Data from the ModiFY Trial. The SCOPE trial was so veiled in secrecy that I had no idea when or what we would hear.
As many have said, Monday's RNS left many questions unanswered but does leave you feeling the message was :
"That's all for now folks"
"Next Update sometime in September"
"Have a Nice Day"
It was not what was needed and definitely not what was anticipated.
Chester.
Plus it's all Berms fault ..... 😁😁
So now we know it was not Lindy selling those shares, here's a good question :
If Mondays RNS was not clearing the ground for reasons of Insider Trading to allow LD to collect those options, what was it for ??
It didn't fully inform about the whole range of platforms just a mixed bag of 'where we are at'.
I can't figure out what would motivated such a 'half the story' RNS.
Perplexed....
Chester.
Hi violindog
I noticed that we were missing comments on TNBC. We know that late stage tumours are extremely hard to overpower no matter what is attempted. I would hope that Scancell are trying to figure out how to mount such a large attack of CD4 Killer 'T' Cells that these tumours can be undermined and eventually overcome.
As reported ModiTope is creating and then engaging with the targeted tumours but it would seem that the inflicted damage is not at present, sufficient enough to overwhelm the cancers ability to create new cells.
What the ModiFY Basket Trial is all about is to find those sweet spots either by number of doses, strength of those doses or in combination with other treatments.
At this very early stage against these hard to treat and aggressive tumours Scancell are having a measure of success. As the trial progresses Lindy and Co will learn where the improvements need to be.
As has been pointed out on this board, adoption of ModiTope in patients at a much earlier stage will be the key to overwhelming the targeted solid cancer.
IMO this recent update shows that Scancell are defintely heading in the right direction.
Chester.
WTP regarding your question of who it may be ....
"....The platform has generated revenues and the antibodies continue to yield compelling results which have led to a new 6-month evaluation by a leading Biotech company."
Who could this be? Is 6 months typically long enough to make an appraisal/bid?
Posted back in Feb this year :
We have four GlyMab collaborations. I presume the GenMab one was the first back in September 2019.
The second announced on the 16th December 2019 was with a Chinese BioTech.
The third 20th January 2020 with a US Based Clinical Stage Antibody company.
Then the pandemic shut everything down for a year at least.
The fourth and most recent 17th March 2022 with a Major European Pharma.
Taking the pandemic out of the timeline and presuming that GenMab were the first means the period from agreeing the collaboration to signing a commercial deal took approx two years.
Therefore the Chinese and US collaborations (if successful) cannot be very far from a decision. The fourth on this basis is at least a year away from being meaningful.
The point is that another one or two GlyMab deals could be very close.
Chester.
BionTech were and are very interested in our ModiTope enhanced 'T' Cells.
If that therapy works it will be BionTech's key to a personalised cancer treatment.
mRNa is still in its infancy and its success or failure is not assured.
Chester.
I totally agree CW, there are so many News worthy items that Scancell could share at any moment to extinguish the current vacuum.
For instance :
SCIB1/ iSCIB+
New Glycan or AvidiMab Deals / collaborations
Progress with the GenMab deal
TCB Antibody progress
MODI2 Progress towards the Clinic 2024.
Any Interest in Covidity ?
Plus the obvious, ModiFY Trial update.
Let's not forget 'Left Field', an absolute favourite tactic employed by Scancell on many occasions in the past.
Being able to compile such a news worthy list and not hearing from the company on any Trial or Deal or Laboratory progress for 4.1/2 months does focus our attention on, why ? ( in a good way ).
Chester.
The Trisha story was unique as her experience was fairly instant when you consider the percentage tumour regression after only 8 weeks. After those early revelations, news about 'trial outcomes' did cease until her story was in the Liverpool Echo.
To me it suggests that patients have been quietly and politely asked to keep any trial outcomes as close as possible.
IMO until we reach a point where 60 or 80 ish have all had the ModiFY full doses and have received all 5 of those doses, we really could not say with any confidence that ModiTope worked well for the majority of patients.
Scancells silence is a vacuum for our imaginations but the next ModiFY Data Readout should answer a lot of the current questions raised on this board.
Chester.
Hi WTP
The next data readout from Scancell will IMO give huge clues to our future potential.
As an investor I now understand that we are taking about a new treatment that will take time to penetrate these well established tumours.
In the poorly patients that have made it onto the ModiFY trial, partial or stable disease results will be amazing. Large bulky tumours and a low immune system leaves these patients with no current options.
If ModiTope is capable of giving these patients another 2 to 5 years of active life it will be hailed as a breakthrough. In combination with CPI's if the number of these patients who gain 5 years plus, rises by 20% or 30% it will be hailed as a blockbuster. Plus all the patents for CPI's can be reset to zero years, that itself will push up our value.
These are exciting times to be a holder of Scancell shares, we just have to keep our nerve and wait for Lindy to start shouting of the rooftop......🤞🤞
Chester.
Those epic deals in the £B's are always due to the perceived huge commercial potential.
We won't know the potential of Scancells ModiFY until the data readout on Cohort 4 plus CPi.
If the increase in the survival percentage numbers are significantly improved then the chances of a deal in the £B's would be very possible.
That data is probably 12 months away.
Chester.
Hi Berm,
It does show that Lindy knows the difference between running a commercial operation and running a purely scientific adventure. Something she has been accused of on here is putting the science project before the interests of her investors. Well in her own words it completely dispels that myth.
Chester.
I've read everything posted here over the last 2/3 days and appreciate that the reduction in the shareprice is a cause of concern. I also understand that under the current circumstances of interest rate increases combined with inflation means owning shares in a non profit making company is a luxury to far for many investors.
What is true is that the trials are proceeding without any hiccups, we know some patients have had positive results, I'm including Stabilisation of their disease as a positive outcome.
The ModiFY trial has moved safely and swiftly to Cohort 4, allowing the trial to expand towards the maximum intended target of 168 patients.
So clinically all looks well and we can be cautiously optimistic that the next data read out will be beyond encouraging.
Not withstanding the fact that NDA's could be in place which may hold up any planned RNS's, we should see that ModiFY Data by 21st August, it being a full 6 months since the last time we were told anything.
On the potential deals front it's anyone's guess.
We have many 'shots on goal', GenMab, GlyCans, AvidiMab, Covidity, SCIB1 and Moditope.
Let's hope one of those gets over the line soon.
Chester.
WETOOKPELHAM, your observation about NDA's prompted an interesting thought.
We have not heard anything about the progress of the SCOPE Trial ( SCIB1) for many months but we know the trial was progressing well because new clinical sites were opened.
Also, we were told at the AGM that the trial was in the process of being upgraded to iSCIB+. So could it be that SCIB1 is currently subject to discussions ( NDA's ) or maybe the whole Immunobody Platform which would mean the addition of Covidity ?
It would make complete sense of the lack of information regarding the SCOPE Trial especially with the recent Observer / Gaurdian article focusing on Lindy and Covidity..
Interesting.......🤔
Chester.
As always JB1 a well constructed assessment.
The fact that Scancell can't give us a blow by blow of the trial, it is really useful to have a structured timeline as you have set out.
We can all have a guess at the number of patients that have had their 1st dose by today's date but I'm happy to go with 50 or 60 patients.
So much happening in the background and now a very up front position in a well regarded Sunday and Daily newspaper.
We can also hope that both our GlyMab and AvidiMab technologies are in negotiations. Nearly half of 2023 has gone and Lindy did sound confident that deals would be done this year.
Thanks once again for the update JB1 👍
Chester.
1st August our new Chairman will have been in the job a full 6 months.
16th August 10 months since Cohort 2, 1st Patient Dosed.
21st August will be 6 months since the last ModiFY 'Encouraging Data' RNS.
25th August the GenMab team will have had 10 months to decide if they are taking our GlyMab target into a clinical trial.
31st August 10 months since ModiFY moved to the Expansion Phase of the Trial.
In all of the above a fair amount of time will have elapsed meaning that each August anniversary has the potential to provide a sound basis for updating the market.
I would be even happier if all five report sooner but if we do reach the end of July without significant news, August could be a major month for updates.
Chester.
JB1 are you still keeping notes on the ModiFY timelines, re-cohort dosings and scans ?
Morning RW, et al ......
Agreeing to today's interview will not be on a whim. This feels like the perfect opportunity to reduce the size of the 'Silence Gap'.
Data must be accumulating to the positive but not at a significantly high enough level to release an RNS. Scancell never do news for the sake of it, so this interview is perfect for Lindy to let the market know that everything is progressing nicely.
Chester.
The comment from a recent Macmillan recruit to the ModiFY Trial, that all the places had been taken and she was number 3 on the reserved list, only refers to her condition at her particular clinic. After being fully vetted she got her place. This shows that the trial criteria are very strict. Also as Bermudashorts says, it is still early days in the whole recruitment process.
We could be at 50 / 60 fully signed up but a lower figure for 'actually vetted and 1st Dosed'.
We don't know all the facts but the trial recruitment can only be nearing the half way point, at best.
Chester.
Hi crumbs
Lindy will want to have all her ducks in a row, I suggest that in this past 2 months quite a few ducks have been lined up very nicely. Are you saying that there may be many more clinical data points that have to be achieved before a possible update ?
That could be many weeks or possibly a few months away. I am hoping that Scancell stick to their promise of 'Regular Updates' or positive sentiment for the stock could continue to ebb away.
I'm not to concerned about the day to day movement of the SP but a continued downward direction is unnerving as we all assumed positive trial progression would mean we would see a positive market response, and we are seeing 'Positive Trial Progression'.
Vulpes said that the SP was 'Derisory' at 16p what must be their reaction to 14.5p. Vulpes have invested over £4m, the vast majority at 5p but also a chunk at 14p so you may say 14.5p is not a bad return on their full investment but that money is locked up and I'm sure they would feel much happier with the stock back in the mid 20's, especially when you factor in the current trial advances.
Ultimately LD and Co will decide what and when is shared but it has been nearly 7 months since the very positive AGM, where we left believing that very exciting things were happening. ModiFY was moving forward with early indications that it was working really well in the first patients. SCIB1 ( SCOPE ) trial was opening more centres and the advancement to iSCIB+ was not to far away. Deals would happen in 2023 for GlyMabs and AvidiMab.
The point of all this is to say that virtually 7 months have elapsed and the above list of outcomes has only seen only one entry, the ModiFY update on the 21st February. As investors we would presume that there have been some items of progress across all of our products, that can now be shared. It would be awful if nothing has happened regarding potential deals and / or clinical advancements that are news worthy.
I hope that the within the next two weeks we are given some official notice that the cogs are not just grinding our investment into dust.
( AB124 please do not post another lecture on the virtue of pacifism when investing ).
Chester.
My 6 months comment was very 'tongue in cheek'.
We have passed quite a few important stages of the trial and ventured out to start the process of communicating how Moditope is performing in human patients.
The day that Lindy is able to 'shout from the rooftops' hasn't arrived as of yet but the trial is certainly heading towards that monumental day.
Chester.