Member Info for CHEQUEMATE

Good early morning. This a reply I got from a contributor on Stockopedia (not Paul Scott) regarding the bunch of very small "A" trades traded at the very small time. The algorithmic programme is something I know little if anything about. "A trades are automatic trades i.e. directly on the exchange order book, as opposed to a trade agrees say with a market maker (RSP) which I think shows as N or O (not sure the difference - does anyone else know?) The "market price" normally means the best bid and offer on the order book (the price an RSP gives you may be better or worse depending on several factors). It is the bigger/more professional traders who do A trades, and I would imagine also the market makers themselves when they need to square their positions. If all the share offered at the best price are bought then the market price will therefore move to the next available price on the order book. This is only possible with an A trade, The reason there are often a lot in small size is I think a function of the way the order book works. If say the lowest price at which shares are offered is 100p and lots of small packets of shares have been offered for sale by different people (or the same person) at that price, and then someone buys a large number of shares at that price.this would show as separate A trades, as each packet of shares sold will count as a separate trade. You can also put partially hidden ("iceberg") orders on the exchange. This means that only after each tranche of shares is bought the next tranche is shown. If someone say offered 10,000 shares at 100p broken into tranches of 2000, and someone put in an order for 10,000 shares at 100p, it would show as 5 trades of 2000. (Although what you are describing of trades of less than 100 shares doesn't really tie in with this.) It may also be algorithmic trading being done where someone who wants to buy will have his order automatically split into small sizes by a broker, although I am not sure how likely it is that several order would be submitted at the same second. I can only guess that the share has poor liquidity, thus making it sensitive to even small sales. It sounds like someone is offloading a large stake in a company with poor liquidity and doing it with some kind of algorithmic program in an attempt to reduce the effect on the price. Maybe check the RNSs to see if there has been a declared change in % ownership. Of course that won't tell you if they intend to sell more or stop. There may be an argument that if you see a similar thing happening in another poor liquidity share and it is affecting the share price that this could again indicate a risk of further falls to come if the same seller intends to sell a large stake. But again you can't know that for sure." This one really beats me as to why it should have fallen so far so fast. Best of luck folk CM

Just found this from the NT blog dated 3 November. Robbie Burns has been a fan of GBG long term, giving a totally different view from those of Paul Scott: GB Group (GBG) shares tumbled - but it wasn't a warning - a slowdown in one division that wasn't going to affect profits much. I sold off the top up shares taking a loss of £588 and then bought some back at a lower price and I also held onto the ones bought under a quid (first lot at 20p). The next statement should shed more light. These things happen: no-one will ever get away without one or two letting you down however careful you might be. If this is a blip, the shares have some good upside to come from here. I think they also might make a nice bid target at this lower price. Robbie sold SOME of his shares on 20 October. Looking for reasons to be cheerful. Regards CM

Words fail me. Looks like the seller is back (if that is what is happening). Exactly the same kind of trading we saw last week, early rise, fall back by midday, heavy fall, slight rebound. I just fail to see any other reason other than shorting. I don't know how far this is going to fall. I have no advice for anyone. I keep thinking this is going to recover to a more sensible level. Is a profit warning expected?, has Donald (Duck) Trump been elected President?. Could OrangeGoblin be right about foreign criminals?. Perhaps Paul Scott is right; in which case what is the fair value for GBG?. As BT has said; unless you need the money now, perhaps stay put. Just going to be a longer term hold. That attitude is VERY much against my usual investment strategy, but perhaps sometimes we have to break our strategy from time to time. No reply from Paul Scott as yet. Hope you all have had a better day than me. Perhaps I should just hibernate..........very cold here in Cumbria, brrr. Hope it isn't too cold in Newmarket BT. Here's to a better day tomorrow and beyond. Regards CM

Hi OG. I concur with the comments made by BT. I have never thought that there may be other outside sources interfering with GBG, but it is a thought I guess. Sometimes though we can perhaps look for a conspiracy where there isn't one, looking for demons in doorknobs - not saying you are by the way. Hmm. The market has gone crazy again. The latest is of course the fear of Donald Trump being elected the next President of the U.S. A week, 2 weeks ago I thought Trump had very little chance of winning. Now..........well, it may be different. After all this year we have had the shock of Brexit, the chance of Boris being Prime Minister and Sam Allardyce being the England manager (only 1/2 joking!). The uncertainty is hitting the markets. Having read Paul Scotts article on Stockopedia this evening, (I can post a link if anyone wants), it doesn't read too badly. As stated below Paul has never had much good to say about GBG. In fairness to him, he does a pretty good service for investors but due to the number of articles he reads through each day he tends many a time only to skim over them and misses some important facts. He has imo never had much of an effect on a share price. And as I stated yesterday he is prone to mistakes like all of us and would admit to them. His articles are interesting but not to be followed as to whether or not to invest or not and he would be the first to admit that. I have posted a reply to Paul, asking him if it is possible for him to explain the small parcels of shares traded at the same time for peanuts. I asked not GBG specific but regarding other shares which are being hit in the same way. If I get a reply, which is quite possible, then I will post it on here. BT - summer?, hmm, fond memories. I don't like the dark evenings. I would like to propose a referendum on hibernation please........wake me up in the Spring. Just stir me occasionally for a cuppa and a little honey rum!. Good luck all and regards CM

My sight isn't so good these days Doze; is that skipper or kipper?!. I am no expert either Doze, I make mistakes. Reassuring I may be but sometimes we need to be challenged so we don't get complacent. BT is very good at being reassuring, very good reading his posts. Thanks for your comments. Regards and good luck CM

Hi Doze. I haven't read PS article yet, I may get a chance later. He has had a downer on GBG for as long as I can remember. He has consistently stated it was over valued and too dependant on existing contracts stating it was likely to fall possibly heavily if there was bad news. I have to agree with him over the valuation in that it was high, but you have to pay for good quality. I have to disagree with him over the disappointing rns when it stated profits would be in line with expectations with organic growth of 9% or whatever. I respect PS views and contributions, they are valuable but even he would admit he gets things wrong occasionally and here I believe he is only partly right. The timing, pattern and size of trades over the past week or so seem classic shorting to me, imo the fall back was way overdone. However, perhaps it gives a base to build on. By all means read PS articles he does raise some very good points. Being challenged in our views is healthy but he is no expert. Regards CM

If todays RNS is to be believed then Canada Pension Plan increased their holding in MCS on 31 October by around 4,500,000 shares. Hmm, perhaps I will hold a little longer. Regards CM

Good evening BT. Couldn't put things better myself, excellent post. At some time, if this has been a shorting attack, it will come to an end. Whoever has been shorting will look elsewhere and move on. There will be richer pickings somewhere else. Hopefully the worst is over, in which case staying put would seem the best move. Just need to pick upselves up and dust ourselves down. On a different matter; yes, the frosts are back. Very cold this morning and again this evening. Still get out training with the dogs when I can, reverting to training at lower levels in the woods rather than out on the open fell higher up. Training in the dark now which is realistic since many a call out with the dogs is in the dark. Regards and good luck to all CM

Hello Backwoodsman. Yes, it did look like a buying opportunity after the big drop. I could have been tempted to top up, but as I have said here before, I wanted and still do want confirmation of a reverse of trend before I do buy any more. I am sorry you got stopped out; that has happened to me on a number of occasions. It is very hard to position a stop correctly, if it is possible at all. Some would argue set a stop around 10-20% below the price you bought in; but that is subject to getting hit by a tree shake, or a sudden price reversal like last week and it can snow ball into others stop losses getting triggered. It is always a difficult one and there are arguments both for and against stop losses. Todays share movement was very similar to past days; moving up early on, holding on and then reversing around midday. I was surprised to see it tick back up only to be disappointed to see the share finish down; I really had hoped we could just end blue, however small. Again, a majority of the share trades were very small and many bundled together. I don't know why so many folk would want to sell or buy so few shares so often, it defies logic which is why I think it could be someone shorting, trying to get the best price by selling small parcels of shares at the same time often, rather than a larger number in one go which could affect the share price too much for their liking. I have to say this is pure speculation on my behalf; I have no personal experience of shorting. I am hoping that once the seller(s) departs, things will return to normal (the old normal). Going back to the "big drop". More often than not there is more downside after such a drop, so I was not surprised to see it fall back further. I am hoping the pilot of this ship/plane is pulling hard back on the controls to pull it out of its' dive, gradually bottoming out before climbing again. I'm just hoping that what is going on across the Big Pond will not affect shares globally; heaven help us if Donald (Duck) Trump comes out on top (am I allowed to say that?). Got the call wrong about Brexit afterall. BT - good to hear from you and read your views. Always worth weighing up what you post. Hope Mrs BT didn't give you too much grief. Regards and good luck all CM

Treeshake? - unlikely. That is more likely to happen earlier in the day and only lasts a short time. Low volume today, equating to an average trade of just over 100 shares. Seems like trades have been bundled together. No one is going to make any money selling or buying so few shares so my best guess is someone has been shorting. Of course I could be well off the mark. There appears to have been a pattern of the share price opening up, staying up but falling back around midday and then taking a hit early afternoon. I have had a look at shorttracker.co.uk website to see if there has been any declaration of a shorting position but can see nothing. It only needs to be declared if it is over 0.5%. Shorting is nothing new, it has been going on for many years; we have only become aware of it fairly recently. To me it seems grossly unfair that folk can "borrow" shares to drive the price down to buy them back at a lower price with total disregard to honest, hardworking, genuine investors. It seems sometimes the dice is loaded against us. This is an uncomfortable time for us. Lets hope it passes quickly. Regards CM

ok, this is enough of a bargain now. Lets see some movement North. So many shares have fallen back over the last month, even what could be regarded as very strong companies. Why so?, maybe still a good deal of concern over Brexit repurcussions and the strengh of the economy. Don't see any clear reason for the fall back nor elsewhere in many cases. It would be interesting to know, but impossible of course, to see how the share prices would be performing had the referendum vote gone the other way. Perhaps it is all priced in. Just thinking aloud. Good luck all CM

Someone shorting this???, falling back sharply. Well down again. Does someone know something we don't, gee!. CM

Hello Jimmy, thanks for the post. Particularly interesting the fact that you have worked with GBG and have met R. Law; that sort of information is very useful along with your opinions. GBG has been very largely off the radar, goIng about its business quietly, never bragging or making promises. I remember some years ago I emailed the company asking why it hid its' light under a bushel; why not promote itself more. The answer I got was it prefered not to make promises or rather suggestions that would give the market unrealistic expectations for the future because if those expectations were not realised it would adversely affect the company and its' share price. Better to under promise and over achieve I guess. I was impressed that the company took the time to reply and was appreciative of my interest. As far as being cheap, you are right about it being relative. I wasn't relating the price to 247p, more to it relative to results, earnings etc.. We have to be prepared to pay a premium for top rate companies and from what I see GBG still falls into that category. Low risk and high potential, yes I think you are probably right there especially with its' international growth. Too many investors are looking for high risk/high reward; concentrating on the latter rather than the degree of risk to get there. They rarely work out. I don't think much has changed over the last 12 months. I may add more once I see a trend reversal confirmed. Regards and good luck CM

Very many very small "A" trades today. Don't know what all that is about; very few of any real value. Puzzling. Any one got any ideas?. CM

Hi Jimmy. Not sure this is "so cheap", rather it is not as expensive as it was when over 300p. The share price got clobbered when in the last trading update it mentioned that the rollout of the Governments verify programme was being rolled out slower than forecast. However, everything else looked good. This is a good company and imo this is a short term reversal; perhaps there is a seller in the background and once sold things will pick up again. GBG doesn't seem able to hold onto any gain in the morning and falls back by close. Disappointing, but these things happen from time to time with all companies. It is a matter of holding ones confidence. To date, GBG has never disappointed me from any of its' RNSs. It seems many, many companies share prices have retraced over the last month. Good luck CM

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=REDD&ArticleCode=s8w9yyh1&ArticleHeadline=AGM_Statement_and_Dividend . Another very good trading update which should boost the share price today. Regards CM

Firstly, welcome to the board OrangeGoblin. It is good to see someone new and to read their views. Some of us have been here for some considerable time, BigTosh for one and me for another (more off and on). One of the beauties of this board is that it is quiet and discussion is more civil, courteous and respectful. I for one welcome comments, particularly if it makes me think more seriously about my investment, often due tor reading contrary opinions to mine. Don't regret not buying in around 230p; if a share is worth buying, then it will be today, tomorrow and next week etc.; we just may have to pay more for it. I have started to consider increasing my holding, but as I said last Friday I want to have confirmation that the trend has changed to the positive beforehand, recognising that this will mean I will not be buying in at the cheapest price; I can live with that and prefer to reduce risk. BT - good evening. Rather surprised by the degree of the rise today. Perhaps we are seeing confidence return. May reduce my holding elsewhere to increase here giving it a day or two; or may just sit on my hands. Good luck all CM

The closing share price is showing 246.75. However, this is unlikely. The last trade before close was at nearer 249, the 246.75 comes from the UT at 16.35, along with all subsequent trades, although many were traded far earlier in the day. Thank heavens for a break for the weekend; well, trading wise at any rate since I work most weekends. Perhaps some degree of commonsense will be back next week. BT - I don't need the cash just yet, nor hopefully for a while. Investing will never be easy, just sometimes it seems near impossible. At least GBG pays a dividend and overall things still look positive if we re-read the CEO latest comment: Richard Law, CEO of GBG, commented: "I am pleased with the performance of GBG in the year to date. IDscan Biometrics, acquired in June of this year, has settled in well; we continue to expand our business internationally; and we remain very positive about the future prospects for the Group. Nothing obviously negative then. "Switch off and come back again in a week or so", oh, if only it was as easy as that. Perhaps I should head off abroad again where I couldn't get internet access.........hmm, now that sounds a very attractive thought. £3.00 at Christmas............I was meaning and hoping it wouild be THIS Christmas of course!. Oh well, whatever, enjoy and all the best CM

After a positive start to the day the share price has retreated again, perhaps not surprisingly after such a fall yesterday. I could be tempted to buy more, but want confirmaton that the price trend has reverted to an upward trend first. I had hoped we would end the day at least unchabnged, that is looking a little optimistic just now. Oh to have nerves like BT!. No Jura here, just an extra mug of tea!. Wish I had bought that bottle of honey rum when I was in Spain a couple of weeks ago; I am sure things would look a lot rosier!. Regards CM

Just as an addition to my last post. I know Robbie Burns, the Naked Trader, is a fan of GBG. I wonder what his view is of todays update. I would not be a bit surprised if he has studied the report in depth and decided to top up his holdings. He often reacts in a different way to many investors to take advantage of a temporary fall in the share price. Unfortunately his last report was just last week so I don't expect to read more from him for a little while. I will report back when I know more. Regards CM