RE: 20th December update14 Jan 2024 17:07
Yes exactely sm66.
People will believe the FEAR and the HYPE around shorts.
The belief - how can such massive shorts be wrong? - is ingrained deeply.
I KNOW PETROFAC is not Tesla, but the points is shorts were officially OVER 20% short bets against Tesla.
So accoding to most "intelligent" investors and "seasoned" investors here - how could those pros possibly be wrong?
Well they often are wrong - the biggest short is US history was WRONG.
The shorts got it wrong against Homebase - the great Marchall Wace was short again Homebase owen when the Bid come in. The shorts are only right half the time. That's just the way it is.
So back to the point - people listen to fear and hype when it said in the RNS that cash flow turned positive even without the advance payments. When you factor in a resolution to the financing - and payments coming in - the cash situation could potentially change very quickly. That means the upside risk is quite large. So maybe MW calculated that the risk is not worth hanging around. So they left whilst smaller hedge fund bet houses remained.
I can understand I also have a risk as an investor - but I am happy to take it and will hold.
This was part of the December 20th RNS:
Measures taken by management resulted in positive free cash flow in the second half, even in the absence of advance payment receipts, albeit this was offset by an increase of over US$100 million in collateral for guarantees. As a result, net debt at year-end is expected to be modestly higher than at the interim results (30 June 2023: US$584 million).
The Group has continued to maintain liquidity above its financial covenant.