Member Info for Che7win

Wonder how the leaderboard is looking for this?

Getting to £2 looking tough by year end ??

I’m a long term shareholder, been in contact with the company from around the 8.7p level.

Reply from company

Don’t think the focus should be on the water cut as this is the lower part of the over thrust sheet and we probably got a little aggressive and perforated to far down. The focus should be that we have a light oil charged column. The next test is the upper most part of the over thrust and should be done in ten days. We will configure it as a proper oil test. That will give us a better representation of what this sheet will produce.
Take a look at the presentation and it will show you the significant size of the structure BIG.
Confusing yes. Disappointing no.

I want to put this rumour firmly to bed. I read most posts avidly here, but tend to post more on other website.
Most will know I have been in this stock 3 months after Mount Teide and communicate with company on occasions.
My post below form other board:

Guys,
Be absolutely, 100% sure on this - the company IS NOT raising any money, nor do they need to.

Any such talk is absolutely misplaced and wrong!

By the way, the analysts meetings have went “great� - they get the story and understand it well.

No need to speculate on this any further, those talking about fund raising are going a dead end rabbit hole.
Management are a bit upset that this is even being discussed.

No issues with cash.

Yes,
Already was a profitable producing company which was undervalued from Coho and Cascadura gas finds.
Valuation if 150p right now should go up from here.

This is a better than expected result for Royston which is bigger than all previous wells combined.

The gas price is fixed, makes no difference to us.

It’s genuine, from yesterday’s satellite image:
https://ibb.co/RC4RYTm

Look massive, are you seeing the big yellow ball of flame?

Sounds like you’re decision is sentiment driven rather than fundamentals.

Assets are 2P NPV10 of $683.1 million, twice market cap. It excludes exclude any potential reserves from the recently drilled Chinook-1 well or Cascadura Deep-1 wells.

The stock is undervalued, the risk is it’s taken out before shareholders reap the benefits.
Anyone looking for half price assets will be interested - especially before Royston prospects are known.

Groover,
As Jesse Livermore said, whenever you expect the market to pay for something, it is a reluctant to do so.

Patience is the key, the current price reflects forced IG index and spreadbet customers who are forced sellers on margin changes.

https://youtu.be/M5hiRsuq1iY

Niger will be their focus this year. He went into how prolific the basin is with 80% success rate for CNBC and all drills finding oil/gas.

On dividend, yes, they are looking at that, expect to hear plans this year.
Also share buyback wouldn’t be ruled out in response to question asked.

He knows from answers that share price is very low, and he agreed in metrics.

EMLG,
Run with your winners.
I have lost substantially in poor stocks such as MDX, TPL, I3E, IMM, IOF over the years.

Most oilers and miners I don’t like, same with pharma. Be careful of companies that are start ups and haven’t proven themselves - this is the danger area which I tend to avoid.

Stick with companies and management with a proven track record. TXP fits that bill.
Ideally for TXP, it has a mature oil business at low risk that covers a lot of costs, and a proven management.
December was a game changer, because they have a gas deal which was better than management had hoped and allows them to sell as much gas as they produce at guaranteed prices.
Significantly derisks the company imho.

It is ideal, in a country that needs all the gas TXP produces, great for TXP, great for the country, unique in many ways.

I recently bought SAVE at 9.7p, but higher risk than TXP due to the countries they operate in. I wanted some exposure because it was going to break upwards in December and the chart was poised. Won’t be surprised to see 50p there at some stage, but riskier.

I’m sticking with TXP - it should be able to get to £5 over 18 months and will be taken over at some stage before it reaches full potential, the prospects are too good for it to stay independent long term.

I think everyone has been overly optimistic on EOY share price predictions!

Garyn,
I have been severely in this stock. I believe management have been honest, they have had a difficult geology to work with.

I hold no grudges.

Your posts here and on Twitter I have silently read, they are I believe completely accurate for what it’s worth.
I am dismayed that this was ramped dishonestly recently.

I move in from here.

Post 2
There is oil in Serentiy. It looks like more oil in Serenity than in Tain.
Serenity is the saving grace, however, the company will have to raise money to drill 3-4 more appraisal wells in Serenity to see how much oil is there. It could be another Liberator East, who knows.

At this stage, the company now have £22m debt and rig payments minus the £5 raised.
They are back to square one, only now saddled with debt that has no hope of being paid off without severe dilution, unless included in a JV or more severe share dilution.

Fully diluted 185m shares.
The problem with Serenity is that they can’t go alone there, the oil field is linked with RREs. RRE could effectively sit on their hands and I3E can’t do anything to get ot production, it has to be a collaborative effort.
I3e could drill more wells next summer, find oil, and not be able to do much until RRE agrees.

Two options as I see it from here.
1. Company picks up the pieces, I don’t think they will ever drill Lib East, Lib West looks too complex to me as well.
Serenity is where the hope lies. They will give a lot of it away too get value extracted.

Only hope for shareholders as I see it is to sell the business at this stage and get 20-25p back after debt. Other than that, it will be severe dilution - another say £25m to drill again next year with no confidence that result will be any different.

Anyone sucked into buying Friday and yesterday I feel sorry for. The 35p fund raise was raised before 3rd well result. It has no bearing in current situation. The BP name drop is also irrelevant, the warrants at 40p is meaningless when hope for this share is gone. If I had been holding, I would have jumped at the chance to exit.
The hope here is a takeover, I don’t see any other way for value right now.

You can take this post any way you like, I don’t trade nor have done any trades here since well result, I regard this post as my honest opinion.

Starresnstoff,
I didn’t post over the weekend, knowing that last weeks news was irrelevant to any upside in the stock.

Let me explain what has happened this stock.
1st well drill: The company messed up on the first Liberator drill by drilling in the wrong place and completely missing the upper Captain sands in Liberator East.
This was meant to be a near certain oil strike as it was near previous well that Dana had drilled. Caused share to drop to 17p at the time.

2nd well drilled: They moved on to SERENITY. They hit oil here, it was a decent result but not w way to near term production and cash flow. It was a bonus shall we say, but not the crucial result needed which was in Liberator East to get to production.

3rd and last well: They went back to Liberator East, used 3D seismic to pin point drill better. They HAD to hit this well and find decent amounts of oil to move forward with the game plan.
The game plan was all about Liberator East. They had to find oil here. They raised £22m to find oil here at severe dilution at 37p and warrants to do this. The dilution was acceptable (40m shares to 185m fully diluted) IF THEY HAD FOUND OIL.
The reason being, that an oil find in Liberator East would have triggered Senior Debt Funding which would have allowed the company to borrow £100m on low interest rate with no more dilution and get to production in 2020 with probably three wells drilled in Liberator East.
That would have enabled them to produce cash to fund drilling in Liberator West and Serenity.

They had been working three years with Senior Debt Funders on this. Before 3rd well was completed and results known, they raised £5m cash. Because they were raising more cash, previous loan holders who took part in fund raising back in May were compensated with more warrants.

The beauty on the warrants was that, had we found oil in Liberator East, the share price would have risen to 60p to 80p and the warrants been triggered. The cash from the warrants would have paid off the £22m loan that the company completed to do the three drills. Effectively, the warrants paid the loan, result being 185m shares.

It didn’t work out like that. The 3rd well was a big miss. Instead of finding 60-100 feet of sands above the OWC level, they found 20, later downgraded to 15. The last well result was a disaster.
It meant there was far less oil in Liberator East than we needed. It wasn’t commercial.
To further complicate things, the geology was much more complex than I or others were led to believe. It is too difficult to be certain of where the oil is in the peaks above OWC.
Effectively, the Captain sands were much lower below OWC than expected.
The Liberator East prospect was and is I believe a complete write off imho.

It means this - the company *may* have oil in Liberator West, but it is an unknown, they have to drill appraisal wells here to know if there is oil and in the quantities expected. It may be there, it will take a lot of mone

Piface,
BP didn’t subscribe to anything, they get free warrants to compensate for shares issues last month.

Yes, worst case scenario, takeover at 50p min.

Serenity and Liberator West are big oil prizes, the drill result this week, although disappointing does derisk Lib West with the oil shows.

Wireline results will be interesting, market has been too pessimistic with last two drills finding oil.