Member Info for Charlie156

Buybacks run up to November's results, one third of funds remain in the kitty. More tortured angst and BS from Mark snd Mojo.

A year of buybacks at $1.5bn a quarter, oil priced at 60-80 dollars and the growing belief that the chronic under investment by the oil industry in the last few years will become evident, BP shares should trade in the £3.50-4.00 range. That would be £4.00-4.50 with Dudley at the helm.

Interesting, all the punters on here who are selling, but not one post about buying. This shows how out of touch a lot of people are with BP.

I doubt the rationale behind the increased capex at SASA is higher costs and falling output.

The 20% sale of the Oman gas business for $2.6 bn was at the time a giveaway, went against the logic and strategy of Looney's vision for BP. Today that decision has proved to be a criminal waste of shareholder value.

"CAML is known for copper production"
The last results, copper made up 54% of turnover, lead and zinc 46%. CAML today is known as a low cost metals producer.
"metals coming off the boil now"
Zinc is the highest its been for a few years, lead in H2 is 10% up ion H1, copper prices in Q3 have been buoyant. I don't know what metals you refer to that are coming off the boil, but they are not in CAML's portfolio.

The increased capex at SASA will lead to increased production of lead and zinc in the years ahead. Don't post unresearched twaddle.

Tod, CAML stated yesterday they will meet metals production guidance for the year, copper at the upper end, lead and zinc at the lower. Don't be a doughnut.

'I've been filtered by Gavster' is becoming the new 'I'm Spartacus'. Clown!

'I've been filtered by Gavster' is becoming the new 'I'm Spartacus'

I don't believe a word Mark or Mojo post.

Gavster, why do you keep igniting the interminable dividend/buyback debate and continually bore the pants off posters. BP's dividend policy could not be clearer, they are not going to change it with 6 months higher oil prices or your incessant whining. I really hope shareholders reap the share price bonanza they are expecting next Tuesday, otherwise the Priory is going to be inundated with BP/LSE posters. God help anyone unfortunate to be sharing a room with Gavster.

I see the Vostok project is expected in 2024 to deliver 500,000 barrels a day, rising to 1 million in 2027 and peaking at 2 million. No wonder BP will not sell its 22% stake, as I do not expect BP under Looney to be doing such projects.

Smithy, my granny was telling me the other day there's a vacancy down her community centre for a bingo caller, and I told her I know just the man. Perhaps we could get Peewee Boyd to fill the cabaret spot that has also arisen. My shares might have fallen, but I've been blessed to read the searing insights of two of life's winners.

I've been looking at previous results since they bought SASA, and the strongest I can see are the 2018 Interims. Comparing them with the upcoming H1 results for 2021, metal prices for 2021 are significantly higher than H1 2018, but I don't see the EBITDA figure of $64.6 of HI 2018 being higher in H1 2021, due to higher treatment charges. The big difference is net debt to 30.06.18 was $125 million, and for 30.06.2021 it's $10 million, which the market chooses to ignore. Q3 always has the highest production numbers for CAML's metals, and with prices still strong(even taking into account the various hedges in place) CAML's Q3 should easily be the most profitable in its history. A new treatment charges contract was signed on 01.04.21 which is 30% cheaper than the previous one which should help, along with rapidly falling interest costs. I have a core holding here but have been trading the stock continually. I bought at 274 on April 20 and sold at 286 on April 27, when metal prices were lower than today, and bought another tranche recently at 264, which looks like I won't be selling anytime soon. The share price is mystifying, I note that Covid has spread quite quickly in the regions CAML operates in, but the company said in their most recent trading update there were no cases, so fingers crossed. GLA

Looney came out with more flannel yesterday in his Bloomberg interview. His 'everything is tickety-boo and investors are increasingly warming to my strategy' outlook is partly responsible for the share price reaction today. His credibility is plummeting, oil at 73 bucks, a share price under 3 quid, he has some neck. It's getting to the point where I can't even listen to his voice, as it brings me out in a rash. This is just for starters, it will not be until the end of the decade until there is a meaningful contribution from renewables, for the next few years as they grow the business, it will make a substantial loss. Looney has had 17 months in the job, the market has delivered its verdict, when will the BP board? I am so dazed and confused by Looney's strategy that when I heard BP had bought Thorntons, I thought it was the chocolate retailer.

The main prop for BP's share price is the oil price, and when that starts to wobble the share price plummets , even with oil comfortably above 70 dollars a barrel. The institutions are not buying BP and the much heralded $2 billion share buyback in H2 will not change anything except that the shares will yield 5% instead of 4.8%. Looney has been given carte blanche to restructure BP and its fine punters on here agreeing with it, but the next time oil hits $35 a barrel and the share price is eviscerated they won't be so sanguine. Sometimes I think this is just a nightmare. It was only Feb 2020 that Dudley increased the dividend, and if he had stayed on the BP of today would be in unrecognisable from the car crash now taking place. He would have held his nerve and the dividend, he would have made select asset sales, not panicked like Looney and sold a 20% stake in its Oman business, a decision that grows dumber by the day. He would have committed BP to substantially reducing its carbon footprint by investing in CCS and hydrogen, not investing billions in solar and wind. BP's shares are fairly priced, 5% for a company in the dangerous oil business is about right. Only the other day there was a headline about an explosion in the Caspian Sea. This time it didn't affect BP, but there is always a next time in the oil game.

Net cash positive Q3. Nothing has gone horribly wrong.

BP's dividend policy could not be clearer, which zac has correctly stated. Q2 will place a number of demands on BP's FCF, a couple of weeks of $70 oil and some punters lose the plot.

This is now a 3 quid share. Investors will have to wait until the latter part of the decade to witness any meaningful return on its green investments, which in 2020 produced 33,000 boe a day, which is diddly squat. Only oil at $68 is keeping the share above £3, Looney has sold over $13 bn of BP's assets the last year and waved goodbye to hundreds of millions of profits. What is BP's place in the oil and gas industry. Chevron have started developing the ultra deep Anchor field in the GOM as new technology makes it viable. BP has similarly placed fields, Kaskida and Tiber, multi billion barrel assets in the Gulf. BP was once a pioneer, now its an also ran, a rudderless ship with a CEO destroying shareholder value.