Member Info for Charlie156

When China invades Taiwan, will BP's assets there be treated the same, and another few squillion written off.

Rosneft Q1 profit up 45%, with production of 4m bpd. BP's 22% stake must be of interest to some Chinese/Indian company. My take is Rosneft and BP are prepared to wait this out.

138 grand between 4 directors is pretty lame, especially the CEO's purchase. Tokenistic, a £1m purchase would have grabbed the market's attention.

MOY, they are behind on the buybacks. They have spent £380m over 19 days, average £20m p/d. They have $2bn to spend(£1.6bn), which leaves £1.22bn for the remaining 43 days, average £28m p/d. At these prices they should be shifting a lot more than 4 million shares a day.

The all time high share price for CAML came on the perceived potential of the SASA deal. Finding another Kounrad was never going to happen, but although it diversified the portfolio, the acquisition of SASA has been a disappointment.

It's food inflation at 19.1% that's doing the damage. What I don't get is why that number is so much higher than other countries.

Just had a look at the CAML investor home page. For years the company said their costs were in the lowest quartile of the industry. Now they are saying in the lowest half, that's quite a change. With zinc at $2362 a tonne today, compared to $3776 on 24.05.22, margins at SASA have been slashed.

Anger, if anyone ever asks you if you've had a good day, do you answer honestly. 'I 've spent all day on a share chat forum arguing with strangers over an investment that I've lost shedloads in. I end the day with a takeaway, watching repeats on Dave, with my pants down by my ankles'. You have another couple of years ahead of the same. It's all going to end in tears.

Hounddog, thanks for digging out those numbers. I' m surprised at the 4% strike and 12% macroeconomic balance. I guess besides the actual strikes, the loss of business due to strikes they're attributing to macroeconomic factors, which they can use to dress up this year's figures.

BP is in a good place. I do like the Travel Centres purchase, if they can transform the margins like they did with Thornton's, it will prove a good deal. Of course a year ago BP net debt was $27.5bn, as opposed to $21.2bn now and there are 17.6bn shares today, against 19.4bn 12 months ago, so NAV has risen sharply.

Challenging couple of years ahead for the UK business, compounded by the lack of trust and goodwill between workforce and management. I'd like to have seen a breakdown of how they apportioned the 22% decline in domestic parcels, between the drop in Covid test kit deliveries, macroeconomic factors and IA.

MOY, oil at $75 might have something to do with it. A year ago on 17.5.22 BP bought back 10 million of its shares at £4.24, when Brent was trading at $105. You could put the case for BP today with a 4% yield being overpriced.

Micromanaging this share on a daily basis is tortuous and asking for grief. I'll review it Dec 23, when interest rates will be substantially lower.

How much was spent repaying the corporate bond in Q1. They said the buyback would be up to 10%, so the proposed 2.5% seems a bit of a damp squib.

No, to make a four figure profit.

Happy, embrace the volatility. I bought one recent tranche at £5.17, watched it go down to £4.70, before selling at £5.33. I bought some at £5.03 on Tuesday, which will come good in the not too distant future.

Happy
Archaea, 3 months revenue to 30.09.21-$12m.
3 months revenue to 30.09.22-$105m.
That fits my definition of exponential growth. Auchincloss said BP continue to be pleased with the purchase and will update the market in October.
BP had no on-highway presence in the US, a gaping hole that the Travel Centres purchase fixes. I suppose you were against the Thornton's acquisition as well, where BP in the short time they have owned it, have already doubled the average basket spend. I'd be surprised if the BP board spent time reading Trust Pilot reviews, but if they did it would have offered further reason to buy and improve the business. The digitalisation that has transformed upstream, is now being concentrated on downstream and retail, offering further margin improvements.
The buybacks fit the criteria BP has laid out. They will be spending $2bn over the next 3 months. The company is fortunate to have such an able CFO as Auchincloss, however uncharismatic he might be for your taste.

Auchincloss is an outstanding CFO. I don't look for charisma in the person employed to make sure the numbers add up. Archaea has produced one set of results since BP's acquisition, and showed exponential growth. The Travel Centres purchase is a strategic masterstroke and will play a big part in the growth and eventual IPO of the retail business. Get real, the oil price is $72, the shares have gone down . Your constant bellyaching about a unforthcoming bid that's not going to happen is tiresome.

One nugget I noticed is BP moving forward with concept selection for Kaskida in the GOM. Discovered in 2006, estimated at holding 3 billion barrels, the technology now exists to develop this ultra deep field.

I guess the market is saying without the exceptional gas trading of Q1, the numbers would have been quite ordinary. I'm scratching my head on how the US majors made so much money on a sharply lower oil price in Q1 23, compared to Q1 22. There's a bit of ego in the results as well, with BP determined to keep the consecutive quarters of falling debt going. Whereas, if they had maintained the buyback at $2.75bn, the net debt would only have increased from $21.4bn to $22bn, and the market reaction would not have been as harsh. As ever the oil price is the main driver here, at $100 the shares are cheap, $80 fair value and $60 expensive.