Member Info for ChameleonMan

Bit of resistance at 3p perhaps?

Ps Trisse tweets “ RNS appointing Farview Solutions to review strategic options for titanium mineral sands JV with Rio Tinto
Sharper players will clock this could mean a spin-out, allowing focus on world-scale #lithium project in Portugal”

Maybe I’m being dim then but I’m not sure how much value we would recoup from Moz at this stage of development? Remember the last strategic development in Oman!

I noticed on “the other board” someone saw an EIA tender request in a Moz newspaper for a Mutamba EIA. This together with the appointment of advisors suggests a renewed focus on mineral sands. It would be good to know what the project plan is - surely no need for secrecy?

This is the most interesting bit supporting the 10.5p price target.
“ A key part of Europe’s battery supply chain
Savannah Resources controls the Mina do Barroso lithium project in northern Portugal, the only large-scale lithium spodumene project in Europe. The main attraction for equity investors is Barroso’s strategic value. Lithium chemicals are in demand by Europe’s fast-growing battery manufacturing sector, and the industry will need to import some raw materials from outside the region. However, the European Commission’s target (for its battery industry) is to “boost primary and secondary production from European sources”. We see this as very supportive of European ‘battery metals’ mining projects such as Barroso.
Barroso’s progress, in terms of permitting, technical studies and funding, will help determine SAV’s share performance over the next 12 months. A large part of this progress is funding, and Savannah received a significant boost in May when it signed an agreement with the EU-backed organisation EIT InnoEnergy. EIT InnoEnergy has invested €570m in the sustainable energy sector and represents a proven source of direct and indirect/introduced funding for projects like Barroso. ?Barroso’s strong fundamentals – Macro-issues aside, Barroso is a decent grade,
low strip ratio project with a low-iron content. It is also located in a traditional
quarrying region, which should help the social and environmental permitting process. ?Spodumene and lithium hydroxide – Barroso will produce a 6% lithium oxide concentrate (SC6), the preferred raw material for lithium hydroxide – the chemical used to make the latest generation of nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) cathodes for
lithium-ion batteries.
?European regulation – the most significant catalyst for EVs in Europe is EU
regulation, which requires car companies to reduce overall CO2 emissions. New emission rules applied from January 2020, and which become more stringent in 2021, effectively force car makers to sell more EVs or face potentially huge fines.
?Price parity to drive demand – Price parity between internal combustion engines (ICEs) and electric vehicles (EVs) is expected in the next generation of EVs set for release next year. Pricing, combined with a vast new EV range (c.100 new models planned for release in Europe over 24 months), should drive consumer demand.
?Global supply deficit looming – a lithium shortage is expected sometime from 2024 to 2026 (depending on whose forecast), by which time Barroso should be in production to capitalise on potential SC6 price strength.
?Valuation – Our sum of the parts valuation is dominated by our Barroso cashflow model and Savannah’s 20% interest in the Mutamba mineral sands project. We calculate a £137m valuation, equivalent to 10.5p per share.”

Didn’t quite make the top ten risers but managed not to fade towards the end. Was that a spike or the first rung on the ladder? We shall see on Monday. I think Zak Mir’s BB Heroes spotlight yesterday may have focused interest today. I’m sure he will be happy to claim responsibility?

SAV has always seemed a bit leaky but this is a surprising jump with no news released. Has someone got inside information and using it? Time will tell!

Zak Mir has read the tea leaves and is pushing for 3.75 According to the podcast below.

Many happy returns! Let’s hope it’s the gift that keeps on giving!
Perhaps folk are reading yesterday’s RNS as a breakthrough in Moz?

I am surprised that we have Independently hired an advisor given our partnership with Rio? Rio surely have sufficient expertise in this business and our agreement with them includes production and offtake so what is there to advise?
Could this mean that we are looking for a way out of the partnership?

Whether SAV build it or not, the eSupply team at VW will surely want to see the whole supply chain plan costed up before committing to a partnership deal?
“On the Atlantic coast, the harbour at Leixões in northern Portugal could within three to four years become the venue for shipments of lithium concentrate from across the ocean, which could make or break AIM-listed Savannah Resources' plans to mine and refine battery-grade lithium hydroxide in Europe. And with it, perhaps Europe's best chance of capturing a significant share of an important new industry.“

https://www.mining-journal.com/project-finance/news/1367501/zero-hour-for-lithium-in-europe

"Refining is the missing link at the moment," said Archer. "We are doing some of the preliminary work around that, evaluating different technologies, chemical technologies for hydroxide production, and also talking with potential investors and offtake partners who might be interested in participating in a partnership for the construction and operation of a refinery," he said.

"We think our production will provide that initial feedstock or baseload tonnage at the mine mouth to kick-start the refinery industry in Europe within the next three to four years."

Someone dropping £300k in 2 hits didn’t help the rebound. My £10k top up today pales into insignificance but I’m happy with it anyway. Onwards and upwards...

Yes welcome Busraker, good to hear your views. My current frustration is that while all this positive lithium market development is going on, SAV just don’t seem to grab a part of it and also tell us very little about what they are doing and what progress they are making. My concern is that supply deals have already been signed up with Chinese Li suppliers and while European suppliers would be preferred in the future, production is years away and SAV is not the only Li play in Europe. Not all the 6 or so European-based projects will make it but if by good fortune SAV does, we will need $100m to fund the mine development and $300m to build a refinery, over a 3-5 year period. With our current market cap and negative income that leaves something of a credibility gap. We assumed that our Rio partnership would provide some income in the meanwhile but that seems to have got stuck in the Moz sands some years ago. Likewise our copper Project in Oman is dead.

Can an EV company partnership agreement happen before we secure environmental approval and a PFS? Probably not. There is just too much risk involved.

.... and just to complicate matters, the VW/BMW future LI battery plant will be Northvolt in Sweden so looks like their Chinese lithium will be travelling on the new equivalent of the Silk Road?

I was also thinking that as VW group have a Li supply agreement with Gangfeng for the next 10 years, how and where SAV would fit in? The SEAT plant in Barcelona would be the nearest factory if kw/km is as important to VW as it is to Tesla. The only EV in production there presently is the Mii Citycar although a Seat version of the VW ID must surely be under consideration for production?

All of this Twitter content we can read first hand on our newsfeeds. I would rather hear some SAV-centric comments from DA about progress on the permitting for MdB, without which all the opportunity in the EV market will fail to get monetised by SAV. This week I’ve learnt more on this subject from Portugal Insider than DA!

I see the share price of the lithium-from-clay miner, in danger of nationalisation by the Mexican government, is on a bit of a tear at the moment. More than one risk factor in play but still it rises. I suppose the Gangfeng partnership provides some comfort and assurance through the technical challenges and the offtake agreement but whoever is buying in clearly doesn’t agree with Howard Klein.

Thanks for that PI. I think we all underestimated the risk/delay associated with getting environmental approval to mine in this area.

Good find Osaka. This is the sort of information update we need. There is clearly more discussion and time required. I would hope that DA keeps us up to date on progress if only via Twitter.

....showing as a sell.

Bought in this morning - first tranche. Have been in SAV for many years but feel that EMH’s proximity to the centre of European car manufacturing gives it a significant advantage.