Member Info for CGH1984

About 2 months ago when the price was 3.30 lol

Just watched the interview. Although I somewhat understand frustration expressed on here, I do think it's a bit much. As far as I can see, the company are doing everything they can to progress things that are in their control. They've sped up the financing discussions so that the time between DFS and FID is as short as possible. They're undertaking all the work they can to get the DFS and FID decisions on time. They've said that the DFS will broadly be based on the scoping study, with the numbers updated to reflect inflation etc. - gives clear expectations. I'm not sure what more they can do. The easements being granted is out of their control and they can't affect the timeline. They are progressing land purchases and are resorting to compulsory purchases only when forced to. As far as I can see, the progress is strong, they're letting us all know what they're doing, and we just have to wait for the Portuguese authorites to go through their processes. Production is only 2028 (hopefully) so this is a long term investment, and patience will be required. There will undoubtedly be more bumps in the road towards production, as there always are with big mining projects.

Quite reassuring that the author of that Portugal Resident article seems to have resorted to quoting commenters underneath online stories. For me, it still beggars belief that the eco-activists are not arguing in favour of mining the very metal that is crucial to weaning ourselves off fossil fuels.

What percentage of required land is under sav control? Does anyone know? I can't see it in the latest presentation

Absolutely. I guess the legal wins against challenges, although slow in coming, give me confidence that the process was correct and that the law is on Savannah's side. I also think the critical materials designation helps when it comes to political will to get it done. As an aside, I am often infuriated that environmental protestors will happily throw soup at priceless works of art but don't raise a whisper when it comes to supporting projects crucial to an energy transition...

Well, the shoot show that is the UK budget prep along with US fears have ripped up my drip drip purchasing plans before the DFS. I'm now all in at an average of 3.76. The direction of travel for me is pretty clear: I think the project has legs, even if the market is yet to buy in fully. Key updates to come: Aldeia purchase, resource update early next year, DFS. As the project nears name plate capacity, we'll see big value being added. I do think permitting and legal challenges will be negotiated, hence my purchase now. Long hold, but potentially big returns

I'm going to be looking to increas emy holding over the next couple of months. It looks like 2026 H1 is going to be really important - DFS released, partnerships confirmed, financing structured. I think at that point these prices of sub 4p are going to seem appealing. That said, it's a long way to production so perhaps 2026 will be a slow burn. Whichever way, I think having my cards in my hand by Feb 2026 and holding on for a few years will see a greater return than trying to play elsewhere on stock market. Been burned recently by a few stocks that did well and then retraced, and I think this seems a longer term but lower risk investment, and potentially very profitable from these levels.

I wasn't sure whether to stick or twist - I do think the turnaround is coming here, but whether it's now or next year I'm not sure. I've ended up slicing - I've sold half my stock and will buy in again if it drops after bad results, or buy in again on the rise following good results.

You're right - I was getting confused between NCR Group and NCS Holdings - thanks for clearing it up

I only see their (NCS's) market cap as being 104m

Resource upgrade landed towards the bottom end of the 11-19mt target. A little frustrating as that was supposedly a 'conservative' estimate. If they hadn't hyped the upgrade so much this would actually be a really positive upgrade, but as they whetted our appetities, it feels a little of a damp squib. However...the target exploration numbers are punchy, even on the conservative side, the Aldeia purchase would extend mining for another 10 years, and there is room for more resource upgrades as they explore the areas which are still open around the current sites. All round, I feel like this is a solid plank in the fortress, but it's not a great gleaming spire.

Yep. I'm burying myself in a sandcastle for the summer, and then hopefully when the concrete numbers drop in the DFS and resource upgrades, alongside an improved LCE price, we'll start to see value in the share.

I do think the outstanding legal challenges are a drag as well - I'd love to see those cleared up by the courts

Sorry, Friday

Is it just a routine update, or do we think we'll get announcements on Aldeia or resource upgrades? Or something else...?

Broke 700 for the first time in while - good stuff

I'm in agreement both on this presentation and the comments earlier about the price dropping. This presentation puts a lot of focus on Aldeia, so we can infer that option is going to be taken up. Moreover, that is a 25 year lease from last year, so it extends the mining life of the company by another 10 years - that's a biggie.

In terms of the price slipping, we're not in production for another 2 years...lots of news and price recovery to come in that time. The spodumene price has gone up another 1% today, and is up 10% since the June lows. There is a recovery coming, and this is a 2-5 year hold for me, so no panic right now.

Encouraging last week or so... spodumene price has gone upwards past the breakeven point for SAV. Hopefully the squeeze in supply alongside increased demand from commercial vehicles will result in a recovery from now til the end of the year. Here's hoping...

In one of the recent presentations on SAV's website, it explained the usual steps towards valuation. It is a percentage of NPV (net present value). Five years ago, NPV was higher as lithium price was higher. Now, although we're closer to production, NPV is lower as prices are lower. Mines at DFS stage are usually at a certain percentage of NPV (off the top of my head around 20%). As each stage towards production gets ticked off, the price of share to NPV gets higher until at full capacity, the shares are worth around 80-90% of NPV. We have some outstanding legal challenges, and aren't at DFS stage yet, sas well as the lithium price being very low: all of these things depress the price. As lithium prices recover and we tick off the steps towards production, the price will improve until hopefully a rapid recovery in the lithium market results in either a rocket under the share price or a buyout...

Pilbara Minerals share price is down 64% in the last year. Savannah resources share price is up 4% in the same time. Yes, we've slipped from the highs after the strategic project announcement. We have been largely insulated from the crashing lithium price, but we're not totally immune. The current frustrating share price is perfectly well explained by people selling the sector as a whole - we're just a lithium play for some sector-wide investors. No conspiracy, no manipulation. Just a share price holding up comparatively well because it's pre-production and there's an expectation of recovery.

Each to their own, but I see real progress on site, with the resource upgrades, with the financing, with the team and with the local opposition. We're being KO'd by the lithium price right now, but in a few year's time I think you'll kick yourself