RE: Amcham member since oct 201926 Oct 2019 17:50
Some good discussion and thoughts here,
For whatever little its worth, I don't / wouldn't take Levan moving on as a negative. Don't think it is usual for a small[sih] AIM company to keep on the books, permenantly, a legal expert. Is quite costly. His leaving signals to me that it is very possible that arbitration is complete, just that the decision has not been made public (I could be wrong though). If it wasn't, then for continuity-sake, wouldn't be good to let your legal expert go, unless they were really bad (Levan seems good at what he does to me - others though may know better).
Regarding GG 'winning' in this arbitration, as one or two others had reminded us, the process in general terms is more like negotiation than the kind of outright battle we see with Hope/ OMF. So am of the view, in agreement with others, we will come away with something still worthwhile. Added to this, we know there is a strengthening of US-Georgian ties and links, which would/ should be exemplified by FRR and this very situation. In terms of the kinds of things the US would be particualrly keen about, oil and gas is pretty much the highest priority (we know they go to war for this sort of thing - something I'm not at all fan of, but I provide this as demonsration of the extent it matters to US interests). FRR losing Block 12 is in effect US interests losing critical involvement in likely the most significant area for cooperation, the area that would matter to US political and coprorate interests. No oil or gas, well what else is there in Georgia then such that the US would pass those bills recently?! Relatedly, I don't think the Georgians, with their geopolitical concerns, would want to be doing this. In regards to all this, very specifically, we have seen how FRR have been able to mobilise US political clout in the region, certainly with Ukraine and undoubtedly, too (where it would matter more given what is at stake, with everything invested), in Georgia.
Am of the view, in light of this and other discussions, that arbitration done by now and was, to intents and purposes, favourable.
We just need to hear something and would think we are reaching a point (November or December some time) when perhaps FSHG could contact FRR and have more than reasonable grounds for requesting clarity.