Member Info for CF73

Massive Tweet, with NCCL admitting their Integration Study contributed to the transmission network going from Tete/ Moz into Malawi (i.e. Interconnector)

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'#Mozambique takes another step towards expanding the transmission network into #Malawi
#NCCL's recently completed transmission study accounts for these exciting developments ensuring an optimal supply strategy into the grid'

https://twitter.com/Ncondezi_Energy/status/1291659356841431040

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Why would NCCLs integration study feed into the Transmission connections going into Malawi?!

-- for plain reason that the Inteconector (which World Bank and EU funded and approved, and under construction is expected to carry power from the NCCL project.

There can be no other reason.

We now await integration study approval, which is likely next news. It will signal Moz's positivity around the project.

Makes a mockery of the current SP and markt cap!

Just to give a sense of were the INterconnector lies in relation to the Ncondezi/ NCCL Power Project:

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'Progress continues to be made on the #Mozambique #Malawi interconnector, which runs past the #NCCL power project and is due to be commissioned in 2022' https://southerntimesafrica.com/with-new-projects-sadc-powers-up/

https://twitter.com/Ncondezi_Energy/status/1382269455183581184

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This proximity is not an accident. This tweet from NCCL was not an accident.

This is the Malawian President speakign, Dec 1, 2021...

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'With the completion of the Malawi-Mozambique Interconnector, [President Chakwere] stated that progress toward adding 1,000 megawatts to the national grid over the next four years is being made.'

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And specifically,

https://pumps-africa.com/mozambique-malawi-power-transmission-link-project-commences/

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'According to Chakwere, the initiative intends to open up trade channels in the SAPP, with the possibility of future trade and power exchanges. With the completion of the Malawi-Mozambique Interconnector, he stated that progress toward adding 1,000 megawatts to the national grid over the next four years is being made.'

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https://pumps-africa.com/mozambique-malawi-power-transmission-link-project-commences/

Another great article, this from Dec 1, 2021.

This corroborates earlier Nov 27, 2021 article in discussing the MOMA Interconnector Line and its significance to the Malawi's need/ market demand for 1000MW!

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'Mozambique-Malawi power transmission link project commences'

Dec 1, 2021

By Anita Anyango


Construction works on the Mozambique-Malawi power transmission link project has kicked off. Mozambique’s President Filipe Jacinto Nyusi and his counterpart President Lazarus Chakwera flagged of the project.
The interconnection project comprises the building of a 400KV Matambo substation in Tete, Mozambique, and 218km of transmission lines from that source into Malawi, from which Malawi is scheduled to receive 50MW of power.
The transmission lines will run 142 kilometers from Matambo substation to Phombeya, Malawi, passing through Mwanza and Neno districts, and will be finished in 2023. The completion of this project will result in enhanced access to power in Malawi, with an initial capacity of 50MW and the ability to expand in the future.
Malawi’s existing power-producing capacity is now hovering around 50MW, according to the 2017 Integrated Resource Plan. By 2030, peak energy demand is expected to reach 1,860MW. The interconnection project aims to contribute to regional economic growth by linking Malawi’s electricity market with the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) to balance the region’s power deficit through regional power trading.

Trade channels
The first phase of the power project involved a technical and economic feasibility study, project definition and scope, and an environmental and social impact assessment, all of which were completed in 2017. President Chakwera mentioned the railway repair project that the two nations are working on to connect Malawi to the Sena Line that runs from Vila Nova de Fronteira to Marka across the border. He went on to say that this connectivity project is another milestone in the two countries’ relationship.
According to Chakwere, the initiative intends to open up trade channels in the SAPP, with the possibility of future trade and power exchanges. With the completion of the Malawi-Mozambique Interconnector, he stated that progress toward adding 1,000 megawatts to the national grid over the next four years is being made.
The World Bank’s IDA Credit is worth US $15M, the European Union’s KFW Grant is worth US $20M, and the Malawi government is worth US $3.5M. It is planned to generate over 1000 jobs throughout its construction. Nyusi expressed his delight at the Malawi government’s investment of US $3.5M in the project for the installation of transmission lines along the 76-kilometer stretch, claiming that this shows Chakwera’s administration’s dedication to the project.

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Some folks questionign the rise. Folks who know the story nehind NCCL understand why the rise. NCCL remain undervalued and will be all the way to 5p +

Then add the news we are due this quarter!

See this thread for very useful information and decent sources!

Then we have news this quarter, including integration Study Approval

SP of 5p + is fair value. Equates £20m market cap.

Look at all the parts to the project and story (below)...

The background info below, spells out the situation, establishing the fundamentals

Looking very VERY good!

This is not a pump and dump.

Look at the parties and partners involved. This is not a typical AIM project or prospect.

£5m market cap is peanuts. NCCL should be £20m + market cap ahead of news - which is expected this quarter!

The current is nothig more than stock reachign fair(er) value, in light of a) increasing awareness of the uderlying fundamentals and b) background news coming to light, demonstrating market, prospects and underpinning those fundamentals.

When, once again:

- BInding JDA with global giant, CMEC, representing the Chinese State
- Just signed EPC Contract (Sept 2021) with CMEC, making our project advanced
- Have agreed in principle Historic Costs owed by CMEC to NCCL, of c.£20m, in totaal

- Malawi need the power, drawn out of Tete, where we are the only project large enough, and advanced enough, to meet demand/ market needs
- Where the Interconnector for the transmitting the power out of Tete and on to Malawi, is funded by World Bank and EU.

Where Tete coal-derived power figures in Mozambique Power System Master Plan,

300MW, on line 2025 (was 2023, but delays for COVID)
300MW, on line 2026
300MW, on line 2034
300MW, on line 2038

Where acccording to news articles discovered, Malawi want upwards of 1, 000MW to be added to National Grid within, the next four years, and the Interconnector and Tete power to play an important role.

And market cap still only £5m!

The risk-reward profile from there levesl remains solid.

Market Cap at 1.5p would be c.£6m -- with everything this BILLION$$$ coal mine and power plant project has got going for iti, ncluding ambitions to go from 300MW to 1200MW - and we know the market is there!

When, once again,

- BInding JDA with global giant, CMEC, representing the Chinese State
- Just signed EPC Contract (Sept 2021) with CMEC, making our project advanced
- Have agreed in principle Historic Costs owed by CMEC to NCCL, of c.£20m, in totaal

- Malawi need the power, drawn out of Tete, where we are the only project large enough, and advanced enough, to meet demand/ market needs
- Where the Interconnector for the transmitting the power out of Tete and on to Malawi, is funded by World Bank and EU.

Where Tete coal-derived power figures in Mozambique Power System Master Plan,

300MW, on line 2025 (was 2023, but delays for COVID)
300MW, on line 2026
300MW, on line 2034
300MW, on line 2038

Where acccording to news articles discovered, Malawi want upwards of 1, 000MW to be added to National Grid within, the next four years, and the Interconnector and Tete power to play an important role.

£3m market cap for a Billion$$$ coal and power project, with this much going on!

When,

- BInding JDA with global giant, CMEC, representing the Chinese State
- Just signed EPC Contract (Sept 2021) with CMEC, making our project advanced
- Have agreed in principle Historic Costs owed by CMEC to NCCL, of c.£20m, in totaal

- Malawi need the power, drawn out of Tete, where we are the only project large enough, and advanced enough, to meet demand/ market needs
- Where the Interconnector for the transmitting the power out of Tete and on to Malawi, is funded by World Bank and EU.

Where Tete coal-derived power figures in Mozambique Power System Master Plan,

300MW, on line 2025 (was 2023, but delays for COVID)
300MW, on line 2026
300MW, on line 2034
300MW, on line 2038

Where acccording to news articles discovered, Malawi want upwards of 1, 000MW to be added to National Grid within, the next four years, and the Interconnector and Tete power to play an important role.

£3m market cap for a Billion$$$ coal and power project, with this much going on!

NCCL oversold and massively undervalued!

5p + equates to reasonable value, when Historic Costs owed by Partner, CMEC, to the company is c.£20m, which is effectively 5p per share; not to mention we have a binding JDA and have just signed EPC with CMEC - not forgetting Malawi want out power...

A long to go for fair value before we even think about the major news to land this quarter!

The Moz and Malawi president's are working to greater certainties than we are, unfortunately. We're left to research, read betwen the lines and join up the dots etc.

--- just that the dots are getting closer and closer together and easier to join :-)

Yeah, stupid comments from President Xi, buying China time before the go back to business as usual. He didn't evet attend COP26!

There are BIG clues here. State-to-State agreements on power trade, means they want and expect the electricity. And with the MOMA Interconnector funding approved and now under construction, where is the power - that the respective States agreed to trade - coming from in Tete (Mozambique)?

Worth adding, the World Bank and EU would not have funded the Interconnector not been assured the necessary power.

There is only one project large enough, advanced enough, that I can think of.

Specifically:

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'The meeting was attended by senior officials from the Ministry of Energy, Electricity Generation Company (Egenco), Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (Escom), Roads Authority, Public Private Partnership Commission and the World Bank.'

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The need/ demand is greater than we can imagine. If they want the power, the power will come!

Come on the NCCL!

This story from just three weeks ago (25 Jan, 2022). Malawi needs the Interconnector more than ever!

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Chakwera pushes for implementation of energy projects amid power outage across Malawi

Jan 25, 2022

https://malawi24.com/2022/01/25/chakwera-pushes-for-implementation-of-energy-projects-amid-power-outage-across-malawi/

As many areas across Malawi are experiencing power outage, President Lazarus Chakwera this morning met technocrats and relevant stakeholders to tackle red tape and administrative obstacles that have delayed the implementation of three electricity projects.

Malawi has a generation capacity of about 441 megawatts (MW) at 11 power stations, aaccording to EGENCO. However, yesterday, some machines at two hydropower stations were shut down due to floods. Another power station, Kapichira, suffered extensive damage. Most areas in the country have had no power since yesterday as a result.

As many areas across Malawi are experiencing power outage, President Lazarus Chakwera this morning met technocrats and relevant stakeholders to tackle red tape and administrative obstacles that have delayed the implementation of three electricity projects.

Malawi has a generation capacity of about 441 megawatts (MW) at 11 power stations, aaccording to EGENCO. However, yesterday, some machines at two hydropower stations were shut down due to floods. Another power station, Kapichira, suffered extensive damage. Most areas in the country have had no power since yesterday as a result.

This morning, Chakwera worked from the Presidential Delivery Unit stationed in at Capital Hill to push for implementation of Mpatamanga 350 MW Hydro-Power Project, Mozambique-Malawi Interconnector Project and the Malawi Electrification Access Project which have been delayed.

“The three projects represent $1.5 billion of foreign direct investment aimed at doubling the number of Malawians with access to electricity in the next few years,” said Chakwera.

The meeting was attended by senior officials from the Ministry of Energy, Electricity Generation Company (Egenco), Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (Escom), Roads Authority, Public Private Partnership Commission and the World Bank.

Chakwera, who currently has no cabinet ministers, said the aim was to collaborate in removing all existing bottlenecks towards expedited implementation of the projects.

The Mozambique Power System Master Plan describes a total of 1200MW comig out of Tete, where NCCL project is located.

- 300MW to come on line, originally, by 2023 - now scheduled for mid-2025 (following COVID). Meaning they got to get Financial Close done on the project by end of H1, 2022 (we're also funded till end of H1, 2022), with construction work requiring 36months.
- 300MW in 2026. This may still be on for 2026, though, which would bring total to 600MW.
- 300MW, 2034
- 300MW, 2038

1200MW total!

This is where other projects, previosuly proposed for the Tete area (i.e. competition), 'have fallen away', leaving NCCL as the lone advanced, large project ---

And where Malawi need/ want a build up to 1000MW to come through the Interconnector over the next four years! Remembering that Moz and Malawi presidents agreeing to power trade as a recent as late Nov 2021!

Follow link to some of that info about the Moz Power Plan:

https://twitter.com/CF73P0/status/1363762535523115011

This is AIM, but monsters are made on AIM

NCCL have

- Binding JDA with CMEC
- EPC Signed with CMDC (as recent as Sept 2021). We are an advanced project by that measure
- Historic Costs owed by CMEC to NCCL in principle c.£20m (market cap £3m!)

- Interconnector approved and funded by World Bank and EU and now under construction. Power to come from Tete, in Mozambique, where NCCL the only project large enough and advanced enough to meet demand/ market established by the Interconnector. 1000MWs of it!

End Q1/ by end of March, major news expected. Buy/ Add and Hold, in my opinion!