Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Thanks for that extrader. I know the GCM situation well as held for many years (like here) and got fed and bailed. But with energy security issues, I have started look at it again. I think China will have a signficant role to play puhsing that project on, as it will have here.
We're firmly into March, with alternative solutions on the horizon/ this quarter - as per RNS and comms.
LTHs staying put. Many believe good news of some kind only a matter of weeks away, with extraordinary upside still in play. Those who can, have added.
Good luck folks!
NCCL remains hugely undervalued given
- Binding JDA signed
- EPC signed
- Historic Costs agreed in principle c£20m to come to NCCL
- Where current NCCL Market Cap c£3.5m!
Fair value will out soon IMO!
BIG News due by end of March/ end of Q1 2022.
Many if not most LTHs remain quietly confident and are stayng put, for news over the coming weeks.
GLA!
Lucro, the company has worked very hard to conduct itself in a proper manner. Is why there are no leaks.
But - as a few of us have said - there are massive clues out there. LTHs remain are quietly confident and committed.
There's a lot of background info that establishes that the project is abolsutely required, with infrastructure (i.e. the Interconnector) being built and with NCCL the only new viable project in sight!
NCCL is priced as if in the deepest trouble. But we have key news this Quarter, where the company appears to very confident of a solution, given the wording, which in turn would have had to have been substantiated with the NOMAD.
There is more to it, apsects that LTHs believe is on the horizon. As I've already, Many if not most LTHs are quietly confident and staying put!
Within the Quarter, we will hear about:
1. Integration Study Approval
2. Chinese Funding or an Alternative Solution
The last RNS was very strongly worded in terms of a 'potential alternative solution', see below:
' Ncondezi Chief Executive Officer, Hanno Pengilly said: "The Company continues to work closely with its strategic partner, CMEC, to gain further clarity on President Xi's announcement regarding availability of Chinese financing for coal power projects abroad. This is critical for the Project and all workstreams to progress the tariff are ready to proceed once this has been addressed. We understand this to be a global issue affecting all Chinese backed coal power development projects abroad, and that this impact is under review by the relevant Chinese authorities. CMEC continues to support the Project and is leading the financing process. In parallel to the Chinese financing process, Ncondezi and CMEC are reviewing potential alternative solutions for the Project which should be finalised during the quarter.'
From the above, and very spcifically:
'CMEC continues to support the Project and is leading the financing process. In parallel to the Chinese financing process, Ncondezi and CMEC are reviewing potential alternative solutions for the Project which should be finalised during the quarter. '
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This bit --- '...In parallel to the Chinese financing process, Ncondezi and CMEC are reviewing potential alternative solutions for the Project which should be finalised during the quarter' -- is very strongly/ confidently worded. This line would not be allowed by the NOMAD unless it could be substantiated.
Taking that again:
'...reviewing potential alternative solutions for the Project which should be finalised during the quarter'
They are very confident there is something concrete/ material they will be able to arrange if Chinese Funding isn't established.
Many LTHs are quietly confidently about a full and proper realisation this Quarter.
Missed this quote from the last aticle:
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'This morning, Chakwera worked from the Presidential Delivery Unit stationed in at Capital Hill to push for implementation of Mpatamanga 350 MW Hydro-Power Project, Mozambique-Malawi Interconnector Project and the Malawi Electrification Access Project which have been delayed.'
https://malawi24.com/2022/01/25/chakwera-pushes-for-implementation-of-energy-projects-amid-power-outage-across-malawi/
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Two-and-a-half years on, Malawi President Lazarus Chakwera is pushing hard to get the Interconnector construction started (after reaching power trade agreements with Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi last Nov, 2021).
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https://malawi24.com/2022/01/25/chakwera-pushes-for-implementation-of-energy-projects-amid-power-outage-across-malawi/
'Chakwera pushes for implementation of energy projects amid power outage across Malawi'
Jan 25, 2022
As many areas across Malawi are experiencing power outage, President Lazarus Chakwera this morning met technocrats and relevant stakeholders to tackle red tape and administrative obstacles that have delayed the implementation of three electricity projects.'
[...]
'“The three projects represent $1.5 billion of foreign direct investment aimed at doubling the number of Malawians with access to electricity in the next few years,” said Chakwera.'
[...]
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We also see by that YouTube video strong expectation that NCCLs Tete proect is going to happen! (See 9mins 50secs in)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bVS2YkNzEk
This World Bank Press Release for the Mozambique-Malawi Interconnector
It shows the link to Tete and the issue of the signficant addition & diversification of power suply.
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'World Bank Approves $57 Million Equivalent in Support of Mozambique and Malawi Regional Energy Trade'
September 17, 2019
[...]
'The line starts at Matambo substation in Tete Province, central Mozambique, and ends at Phombeya substation in Balaka District in southern Malawi. With these investments, Malawian households, businesses, and farmers will benefit from increased access to reliable electricity services, that are vital to improve the country’s productivity and competitiveness in the domestic and regional markets.'
[...]
'“The project seeks to address Malawi’s sectoral challenges, including chronic electricity supply deficits and ensures security of supply as well as reliability and affordability of electricity through imports from Mozambique and, in the future, other SAPP members,” said Bella Bird, World Bank Country Director for Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. It also reduces the potential for a power crisis based on droughts affecting the Shire River. It addresses the need for back-up in the form of diversified external sources of power. In addition to construction of a transmission line and related infrastructure, the project will support capacity building of the electricity utilities of both countries.'
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2019/09/17/world-bank-approves-57-million-equivalent-in-support-of-mozambique-and-malawi-regional-energy-trade
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In particular:
[1] 'The line starts at Matambo substation in Tete Province, central Mozambique, and ends at Phombeya substation in Balaka District in southern Malawi.
[2] '...address Malawi’s sectoral challenges, including chronic electricity supply deficits and ensures security of supply as well as reliability and affordability of electricity through imports from Mozambique'
[3] ' It also reduces the potential for a power crisis based on droughts affecting the Shire River.'
[4] 'It addresses the need for back-up in the form of diversified external sources of power.'
Where:
[1] This is power drawn out of Tete, where the only new project large enough & advanced to supply enough power to the Interconnector to meet Malawi needs is Ncondezi/ NCCL. Only other potential supply is from the Cahora Bassa Dam, whose power is already accounted for, and won't be reliable i.e. drought, storms
[2] Only reliable & affordable electricity comes from coal. What coal power in Tete? There is only one.
[3] If wanting to avoid the affect of drought, then the issue concerns both Malawi & Mozambican hydro supply. Only reliable source of electricity in this context is coal.
[4] To Diversify in the context of avoiding the impact of drought, while drawing power from Tete, can only mean Tete Coal-derived power and there is only one project in sight -- NCCL/
Once again, for the folks interested:
This recent YouTube video (15 Oct 21) shows 10 mega projects in Mozambique
You can see signficant mention of NCCLs Billion$$$ Tete Coal Mine & Power Plant Project (9mins 50secs), stating 1800MWs to come!
Seems the Project is fully expected to happen. Very possibly explains the HUGE trading volume, with BIG news this QTR!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bVS2YkNzEk
Trading volumes have been phenomenal here. Probably between 45% to 50% of total stock equivalent changing hands over the last 7 or 8 days. This as we head towards BIG news, due within the Quarter.
Said before, many if not most LTHs are quietly staying put. We approach the endgame, in my/ our view!
Holding out to the endgame. Not budging and nor are many other LTHs.
...prospects remain the same as they were on Friday.
...the project is more than likely in my view :-)
Not really rare-groove. There is important news due this Quarter. And I will be 'in' when it comes.
...
Again, is good to have you on board!
This stock has been a dog share for quite some time. But quite a few LTHs have held with it regardless. A bit like PREM (I sold out too ealy, last year - and ruining it).
However, I made up my mind a few years ago, that NCCL was my target. After a quite few years of making little progress, H1, 2022, is the critical resolve by deadline. But before then, we looking at very significant news this Quarter/ by end of March (as per RNS).
NCCL can reach ultimate realisation within a relatively short space of time. By that I mean, either Financial Close (no later than end of H1, 2002); or earlier still, an outright sale of the project. The sale is on, too. CEO referred to such a possibility some months back (not too much detail added, but there was a mention). If there is to be a sale, then it will be earlier than FC, as CMEC trying to buy the project after FC - when totally derisked - would mean their payng a hefty premium.
Therefore, if we expecting a sale, we should be expecting it before when FC is meant to be happening. In the meantime, we some BIG news this Quarter!
Just as an example, showing progress at NCCL, see below for info about the EPC signing that happened Sept 2021. Signing the EPC ensured the project achieved 'advanced project' status:
https://twitter.com/CF73P0/status/1495443530600398857
You can tell from the pictures of the virtual signing ceremony, this is serious stuff (the project is one of the major projects forming Mozambican and Chinese cooperation, being part of BRI).
Reliable power is not only a requirement for the people as domestic consumers, but also for industry.
Indeed, easily arguable that reliable power is a greater issue for industry as a key motivation for these power projects is the necessary industrialisation of developing nations (objectives of not only the governments of developing nations, but also World Bank, EU etc.). This needs an environment conducive to investment. Unreliable power - espeically from Hydro/ dams - leaves industry/ industries - in a precarious situation.
As others have just pointed out, making hydro the main source only adds to the existing day-to-day/ week-to-week output and developmental problems being faced by nations such as Mozambique and Malawi, where in Malawi they have just lost c.30% of their power output (from the storms), with dams/ hydro being a big part of the issue.
Under such uncertain conditions/ environments, investment in developing nations becomes harder (who would want to set up factories in places where power/ electricity supply is so unreliable).
Cheap, reliable baseload power has to come from coal. This is the reality. Where World Bank and other dveelopment agency goals are to ensure that the benefits of those resources can be spread to cover deficits (like in Malawi) and share surplus (which will come to pass in Mozambique).
The World Bank is supporting and pushing so that further investment can come. Here, China are ahead of the game, but is good to see World Bank funding for the Interconnector (to supply Malawi and SAPP - Southern African Power Pool) unlock investment from China for the Ncondezi Coal and Power Project.
Should be a good week ahead!