Member Info for CF73

For me, learning that Malawi expect 1, 000MW of electricity/ power to come through the MOMA Interconnector Line. Although the artcile was from Nov, 2021 (still fairly recent), not sure anyone saw it.

If that is Malawi's expectation (and am sure this is underpinned by those heads of State agreements) - i.e. 1, 000MW to come from Tete, in Mozambique - then it means there has to be a source of power in Tete, no matter what happens to NCCL. For sure, the World Bank and EU would not have funded the MOMA Interconnector Line to the tune $127m if power - for the libe to carry - wasn't assured.

I have had contact with World Bank a while ago - they confirmed that the Interconnector was intended to carry power out of Tete, in Mozambqiue --

We are the only project advanced enough and large enough to meet that demand.

It's the cofirmation of the level of power to be carried/ that Malawi want, that has changed my outlook completely!

Good to have you on board Oil_Beast!

Have posted RNSs and Background News artciles. LTHs who know the story, are able to make certain interpetations out of those; mainly, that the project seems increainsglylikely to happen,

a) Because the MOMA Interconnector Line (a major piece of transmission infrastructure, linking Tete, in Mozambique, with Malawi), has been approved and is under construction; where respective Moz and Malawi presidents have shakend hands to energy trade through the Interconnector - with said Interconnector leading to electricity import (for Malawi) amounting to upwards of 1, 000MW over the coming four years.

b) The Interconnector requires new power, near 1, 000MW of it. The only new power source proposed in Tete is NCCLs project. There are no other advanced projects in sight but NCCLs.

Those agreements between heads of State, on energy trade, are underpinned by support from World Bank ad EU (I have posted links).

It all point to the inevitable - with end of Q1 (i.e. end of March, 2022) being an important news period!

#NCCL Should crack 1p tomorrow & maybe 2p coming week

SP of 2p, is market cap of £8m

For reference see below Historic Costs owed to NCCL by CMEC (ie c£20m)

NCCL Market Cap in 2011 £171m. Then it was just the Coal Mine.

Now, Coal Mine & Power Plant...

Massively undervalued!

Cash position is they are funded till end of H1, 2022, and can preserve cash for longer. They have already raised funds twice, in the last quarter of 2021. Once a Placing and the other, with the sale of its solar project.

They are well funded and have backing of largest shareholder (i.e. 18% of stock), Scott Fletcher, who is loaded!

Worth adding, the project needs to reach FC no later than H1, 2022. So we are funded for the duration of the period that matters.

Indeed JDT!

Then add CMEC need to pay NCCL a Subscription Price to take possession of their 60% stake -- in turn eaving us with 40% of a Billion$$$ project, where we have the Interconnector Line waiting to take power to Malawi!

confirmation of a deal is worth 20 x current SP and more.

The project is a Billion$$$ project.

Have just posted about how undervalued we are.

Ths stock is massively undervalued!

After delays and issues, is now about timing ahead of major news period. Articles found today and posted, show the power has to come from somewhere. The only project in twon big enough and advanced enough, is NCCL.

The stock remains hugely undervalued.

To gvive an idea of that, see Historic Costs owed to #NCCL by CMEC.

- US$26.7m agreed in-principle as target Project historical expenditure

- $21.0m expenditure audited; audit report accepted by CMEC "in principle"

- $5.7m Historical Costs under negotiation

So, that is c.£20m in Historic Costs.

While Market Cap? --- £3m!

This while we now learn that the project has become increasingly likely (someone bought 2.7million shares earlier - would have cost £270, 000, when the SP was 10p per share!)

https://www.investegate.co.uk/ncondezi-energy-ltd--nccl-/rns/us-21m-historical-costs-agreed--in-principle-/202101040700093202K/

Buying continuing - orders - and I mean, BIG Orders - are in!

NCCL funded to end of H1, 2022 (another 4 or 5 months). And they can preserve cash for longer, if required.

Last RNS Update makes that clear.

I'm very comfortable with this.

We see by those articles that Moz and Malawi are shaking hands on power trade, to be carried by that Interconnector.

Where's the power coming from?!

Well, they seem to be confident!

Only source of power advanced enough and large enough, that many of us can identifiy, is NCCL!

Even an SP of 1p market cap would be just £4m --- when Historic Costs owed to NCCL is c.£20m

Then add,

- Subscription Price
- The value of our 40% stake

Thanks me ol mucker ACKER. Good to see PREM flying! Sold much earlier at 0.15p and ruining it - but am confident here.

And finally (from Nov 24, 2021):

https://clubofmozambique.com/news/mozambique-and-malawi-sign-mous-on-trade-mineral-resources-205387/

[...]

Another important project for the two countries is the interconnection of electricity supply between Mozambique and Malawi. “We are also proud to announce that work on this power line will start in March of next year. The Malawian people will, in 2023, see their energy situation improved, because this project will have been concluded [by then],” Nyusi said.

[...]

See also (not sure of date, but confirms EU involvement!):

https://ec.europa.eu/eu-external-investment-plan/projects/mozambique-malawi-interconnector_en

Mozambique-Malawi Interconnector

Malawi is suffering from a serious electricity deficit. The electricity supply cannot meet the estimated demand and a load-shedding program is ongoing. By contrast, the Tete province of Mozambique is considered as the potential “power house” of the Southern Africa Power Pool (SAPP) because of its vast generation resources. In 2013, the governments of Mozambique and Malawi signed a power interconnection agreement that provides for the construction of an interconnector in two phases to be implemented subsequently.

The Mozambique-Malawi Interconnector represents the first phase and it comprises the construction of a 218 km-long high voltage transmission line between Matambo (in the Tete Province in Mozambique) and Phombeya (in the Balaka District in Malawi) which will connect the electricity grids of Malawi and the Mozambique.

The interconnector could be extended in a second phase, thereby connecting the northern and the central grid of Mozambique via Malawi. By way of the interconnector, Malawi (member of the SAPP) will be connected to the SAPP grid for the first time and will be in the position to trade power with Mozambique, and other SAPP countries in the medium to long term.

The project aims to contribute to the integration of the regional electricity market in the SAPP region so that the electricity deficits and surpluses in the SAPP countries can be balanced through power trading on the network. Malawi will import power from Mozambique and provide consumers with reliable access to electricity supply.

The EU contribution will finance a share of the investment costs on the Malawian side.

Towards the bottom/ end of the article:

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"With the construction of The Malawi-Mozambique Interconnector, it marchs towards the goal of adding 1,000 megawatts to the national grid over the next four years is making steady progress. The project is co-funded by the World Bank- IDA Credit at US$15 million; European Union through KFW Grant at US$20 million and the Malawi Government at US$3.5 million."

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So Malawi expecting 1, 000MW through the MOMA Inteconnector Line. I know that at the best, the Cahora Bassa Dam can may be supply 50MW (was in an original plan, years ago). But that is tops. Most of the Dam's power goes to South Africa, 70%; 5% to Zimbabwe and the rest to Moz (thanks to another LTH for that info). This means that the remaining c.950MW (if the Dam is even able to supply the 50MW of power), has to come from new sources in Tete, as that is from where the MOMA Interconnector is getting the power.

And we know that there are no other large, advanced power projects in sight, in Tete - just Ncondezi.

https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2021/11/27/presidents-chakwera-and-nyusi-toast-for-laudable-malawi-mozambican-relations/

Presidents Chakwera and Nyusi toast for laudable Malawi-Mozambican relations

Published 3 months ago

on November 27, 2021

By Kester Kenn Klomegah

0 Comments

Mozambique and Malawi, largely sharing borders, have agreed to forge cooperation in diverse economic sectors and take advantages offered by the single continental market. A number of African leaders have started looking at the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), as it aspires to connect all regions of Africa, to deepen economic integration and to boost intra-African trade and investment. It aspires to create a single market for goods and services across 55 countries and our continent, creating a market of as much as 1.3 billion people with a combined GDP of $3.4 trillion.

On November 22 to 24, President Filipe Jacinto Nyusi of Mozambique went on an official working visit to Blantyre, Malawi. It was to participate in the 5th SADC Industrialization Week in Lilongwe, according a statement from the Malawi’s Ministry or Foreign Affairs.

The first strategy for regional industrialization, he noted at the conference of the Industrialization Week, includes developing synergies linked to value chains, transport corridors, energy, and human potential. It will also involve bringing down barriers at the border to strengthen the economic identity of SADC. According to Nyusi, the impact of this strategy will be amplified through changes to the trade balance as exports are increased and imports substituted.

The second strategy is based on developing technology, employing thousands of people, creating a market to absorb agricultural surpluses from the rural population with a particular focus on women, agro-processing and associated logistics, which, he said, ends up becoming a “powerful weapon” for the well-being of the population and combating poverty.

While still in Malawi during the visit, Malawi President Lazarus Chakwera took his guest counterpart Filipe Nyusi to launch the construction works for Mozambique-Malawi power transmission interconnection project at Phombeya in Balaka District. The power generation project planned to translate into improved access to electricity supply and ultimately strengthen the industrialization programmes in both countries. Construction of the interconnection project, includes laying transmission lines about 142km from Matambo substation and 76km into Malawi to Phombeya passing through Mwanza and Neno Districts – expected to be completed in 2023.

According to the Integrated Resource Plan of 2017, peak electricity demand will be 1,860MW by 2030 yet currently Malawi’s installed electricity generation capacity is hovering at 50MW. The objectives of the interconnection project include to support economic growth of the region through sustainable power access by integrating Malawi electricity market to the Southern Afr

Sentiment turning here with NCCL

- Market Cap (M/C) only £2m!
- SP is a big steal when Historic Costs owed to #NCCL is c.£20m!
- Then add, CMEC have to pay us $$$$$ for 60% of project!
-Then also ass, the value of our own 40% stake!

- In 2011, NCCL Market Cap for just coal mine was a whopping £171m! Now add the 300MW Power Plant, with room to scale up to 600MW within the year! (See Moz Power System Master Plan; a second 300MW in operation by 2026, to make 600MW in quick succession)

Huge value from these levels: news expected withthis Quarter! (A matter of weeks!)

And another::

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“ISLAMABAD, Feb. 1 (Gwadar Pro) - Shanghai Electric on Monday celebrated discovery of the first seam in its 7.8-million-ton per annum open-pit coal mining project in Tharparkar district, Sindh, ****stan.

The 145-metre deep coal seam has an estimated reserve of 3 billion tons of coal deposits, according to the company.

The Sino-Sindh Resources Ltd. (SSRL) Coal Mine Project is part of the Thar Coal Block-I Integrated Coal Mining and Power Project sponsored by Shanghai Electric under China-****stan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

The over $3 billion integrated project also includes a 1,320 megawatts coal-fired power project, which is also near completion. The project is most awaited in ****stan for being a major source of reliable and affordable indigenous coal-based electricity.

An official of the media wing of Shanghai Electric’s ****stan operations told Gwadar Pro that a ceremony was held to celebrate unearthing of the first coal layer, which was attended by the Chinese and ****stani staff members of the company.

The official also shared a picture of the ceremony, with the mine workers gathered at the site where the first coal layer was unearthed, and holding out a banner inscribed as, “Warmly celebrate disclosure of Coal Seam A of ****stan’s Thar Coal Mine Project”.”

“Ziarat Khan, a senior mining engineer, told Gwadar Pro that it was a breakthrough achievement for Shanghai Electric. The relatively lesser depth of the first seam indicates that the site has vast reserves of coal, he said. This success means that the company is ready to start commercial operations in near future, he elaborated.”

http://en.ce.cn/Insight/202202/01/t20220201_37304505.shtml

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Naturally, this project is advanced.

But so are we!

Great article from a few days ago...China continuing on their coal march.

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ISLAMABAD, Jan. 30 (Gwadar Pro) - The massive energy projects executed by Chinese firms not only ended power outages in ****stan, but also introduced the most advanced technologies in the country’s power sector.

These include the underground hydropower projects as well as the ultra supercritical coal-fired power plants.

In 2018, China Gezhouba Group Corp. (CGGC) completed construction of first-ever underground powerhouse in ****stan, Neelum-Jhelum hydropower project in Azad Jammu and Kashmir.

The 969-megawatt run-of-river project was a construction challenge due to caverns and tunnels in the not so solid and ever active Himalayan mountains range. The project was completed after 10 years of unprecedented engineering efforts in the toughest geological and geotechnical environments, according to a joint study of Hanyang University, Korea and five ****stani universities.

CGGC is also building the 884 MW Suki Kinari hydropower project under China-****stan Economic Corridor (CPEC) initiative, involving the same engineering design. CGGC has also signed a contract with the government of KP province for construction of the 300 MW Balakot HPP with the same design.

“The project will provide us with a chance to work on tunnel excavation and installation of underground power plants, as earlier such projects were at federal government level to which we had no exposure,”a senior official of KP’s energy development arm, PEDO, told Gwadar Pro.

In addition, China Three Gorges Corp. (CTGC) has also built a similar hydropower facility in Karot area of Punjab province. The 720 MW project is nearing completion and expected to commence commercial operations in mid 2022. Three other such projects in North ****stan are at different stages of implementation.

Moreover, in coal energy sector, Shanghai Electric Group is building a 1,320 MW ultra supercritical power plant in Tharparkar area of Sindh province. This technology has never been used before in ****stan, an official of the Thar Coal Block 1 Power Generation Co. told Gwadar Pro. The company is a special-purpose vehicle registered in ****stan for execution of the project.

The ultra critical technology, which has been developed by Shanghai Electric, has higher thermal efficiency level resulting in lesser emissions per unit of the electricity generated, the official explained. “The project will utilise the indigenous Thar coal and produce low-cost energy with lesser or no environmental hazards,”he said.

http://en.ce.cn/Insight/202201/30/t20220130_37303028.shtml

What I find interesting is that, that positive article from September 2021, in the ‘Africa Oil and Gas Report’ website, says the following:

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‘Financial Close for the project, located in the coal-rich Tete district, is targeted for H1 2022, with 36months of construction, meaning that the plant should be up and running mid-2025.

https://africaoilgasreport.com/2021/09/power-deficit/proposed-300mw-coal-power-plant-in-mozambique-moves-to-financial-close/

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So, going by that article, FC is intended for H1 2022. What I interpret from this:

1 .A targeted operational start up for the project is mid-2025. This places pressure on CMEC (provided the project is approved/ achieves Financial Close), to have the plant operational by a date that is likely to have been agreed with various parties, namely EDM and Moz State, but perhaps also Malawi, World Bank and other parties involved in the project or in MOMA or with any related energy trade deals.

2. It would appear, that if the plant is to be built and finally up and running, that Financial Close (FC) at H1 2022 is necessary as the absolute limit for the project development stage. They seem to have a good idea of the programme work required and how long it will take and am inferring that the mid-2025 target to get the plant 'up and running' will be based on their concluding these discussions (between CMEC and NCCL specifically) no later than H1, 2022.

3. FC at H1 2022 also aligns with our being funded till date i.e. NCCL is funded till H1, 2022. This is really interesting in my view. I have absolutely no doubt that CMEC and Moz both want the project. But CMEC (and/ or Moz State) can only hold out for so long. H1 2022 for FC (unless a suitable earlier conclusion) is the final date for project development/ negotiations. They need to go into construction immediately following H1 2022 in order to be 'up and running' on time (i.e. 36months construction work from end of H1, 2022, to mid-2025.). And it just so happens that we are funded to end of H1 2022.

As mentioned earlier, some LTHs believe this is headed towards a buyout/ sale in advance of H1 2022 -- where the 'potential alternative solution' [...] 'should be finalised during the quarter.' -- where the potential alternative solution could well be a buyout, in my (and others') opinion (but Do Your Own Research!).

Good luck folks, and especially the LTHs.