Member Info for CF73

Looking closely at the Update:

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“CMEC continues to support the Project and is leading the financing process. In parallel to the Chinese financing process, Ncondezi and CMEC are reviewing potential alternative solutions for the Project which should be finalised during the quarter.”

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NCCL can’t (and shouldn’t be allowed) to incorporate that element – i.e. ‘…potential alternative solutions for the Project which should be finalised during the quarter’ – unless they can show this (i.e. 'potential alternative solutions' which 'should be finalised during the quarter') is somehow actually possible. The statement does not come with the usual 'We cannot guarantee that these discussions will lead to etc etc'. It's a strong statement, pointing to the genuine possibility of an alternative solution.

Given the uncertainties here, it would be difficult for that comment about an 'alternative solution' to get passed the NOMAD without being substantiated in some form. So NCCL must have provided some concrete evidence that this is possible and not mere baseless claims designed to placate the market/ save the SP from further devastation (though we have dropped).

Going by the update, they are reviewing alternative solutions and that it appears there is a strong belief within the company that something could/ should be arranged within the quarter (by end of March, if not earlier).

Some of us LTHs believe that the alternative solution could be a buyout.

Important bit being:

"China has pledged to reduce its coal-fired power generation as part of a plan to become carbon-neutral by 2060. The government, though, has said reduction plans will not begin until after 2025 […]"

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The Ncondezi power project comes on line 2025.

China expects to reduce coal power generation projects after 2025, meaning NCCLs proposed project won't be affected.

First 1-GW Unit of Major China Coal-Fired Plant Comes Online December 28, 2021 A Chinese power company said the first of four 1,000-MW units at a new coal-fired power plant in a northwestern region of Inner Mongolia has entered operation. […]

China has pledged to reduce its coal-fired power generation as part of a plan to become carbon-neutral by 2060. The government, though, has said reduction plans will not begin until after 2025 […]

https://www.powermag.com/first-1-gw-unit-of-major-china-coal-fired-plant-comes-online/

...come to think of it, there is no way that NCCL could have posted that article on Twitter. Its hands were tied. It's partners would have kicked its a ss if they had posted that, as far too close to the situation.

Feel we have an important, positive RNS due early New year,

The article clearly by-passed most if not all of us. And while NCCL have lately been posting more often on Twitter, they were still pretty dormant up until November (so their not posting it is not out of character/ pattern).

For me, the article is clearly produced by someone who knows a lot about the project and seems to believe strongly that the project is happening. If I was being particularly speculative, the article appears to be way of getting the story (of what is to come) out, with a level of detail and narrative NCCL would not be able to release themselves, given how their hands are tied. The article is low-profile way of telling us what is coming, 'in the hope' LTH slueths are able to discover the article themselves and post via social media and forums.

Personally, looking at the information and the story, it appears extremely plausible.

Is a great read. Someone, somewhere, knows a great deal and believes the project will happen and fairly soon in the scheme of things!

Indeed Gary. I reckon they have largely been picked up already, with a buyer/ buyers pre-arranged (otherwise either MMs would be picking them up to sell on, which'd be too risky for the MMs; or there were parties prepared to take up the stock, off the open market market, wholesale -- and we saw those large-ish regular 1million and 1million + buys).

We hear there is an update in the works.

Come on Hanno - lets have the tariff approval!

https://www.investegate.co.uk/ncondezi-energy-ltd--nccl-/rns/holding-s--in-company/202112290700118164W/

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We can see how Green Stone selling their quite karge holding has been a problem. What we don't know is far back this was on the cards and how it subsequently affected plans for the company, affecting the SP in turn (i.e. can't do a quick exit on a holding like that unless the SP is crashed, and can see how the 1.5p raise assissted in this).

Green Stone now out completely and so company now free to release news that can move SP without Institional selling putting on the brakes.

We should see some large-ish buying today. And apparently, there is an update in the works. And it really needs to be an RNS confirming tariff approved and that all parties working to achieve subsequent milestones in quick order.

Good luck folks!

Crazy low SP and market cap. No news, remains good news, I think (otheriwse, if there genuine issues, the current SP would have flushed out an RNS expaining what's going on. Clearly NOMAD has been satisfied).

BUYs vs Sells is crazy:

9, 187, 000 Buys vs 270, 000 Sells.

It was something NCCL needed to get done and so is good that it's in (as it's about how we connect the project up with the grid).

That is a huge find Gary!

The problem here is, is that the company cannot say anythin the definitive, until they are in a position to RNS. All of it is 'hopefully' etc, because that is officially where everything is (reflected in the SP/ Market Cap).

However, to me, this is not a binary bet. Moz needs its coal being used and needs the power that will be generated. China needs the cokign coal, and now, it seems, with all the outages, it coudl also do with the thermal coal. It also won't want to back away from a 300MW project, one that is Scalable to 1200MW (as per Moz Goverment key power/ energy documents).

Why would China walk away from this?!

They have just pushed for the wording on coal at COP26 to be changed, from 'Phasing out...' to 'Phasing down...' --- why would they do that if they weren't going to act upon it?!

Let's remember, CMEC (essentially, in representing the Chinese State), has just signed the EPC, in the process saying they were '...committed to working with NCCL to deliver the project in the near future'. How would that be possible if this project hung in the balance?

The biggest problems here is a) we are't in control (to be expected, and is unfortunately part of the jouney for many companies on AIM); and b) poor treatment of shareholders by the company.

But this doesn't mean we are binary bet. China will come good. If they don't fund the project, they likely won't others, when they need the coal (they are badly short of both coaking and thermal coal), and there's easy money to be made out of the power project. They have possibly just surpassed the US as the richest nation on the planet. They will be looking to maintain their position and their prospects. They won't be doing that by turning down projects like ours.

That paves the way. Things could move very quickly very soon.

Peripheral News - especially around COP26 and Africa Energy Week - points to enromous politivcal support for coal-based and other conventional sources of energy, under the banner of a 'just transition' to greener energy sources. African nations are making it clear that they expect to use the resources within their rerritories as part of the mix to ensure development of their nations, economic growth, jobs and generally a better quality of life for their folks.

An example:

https://energycapitalandpower.africa-newsroom.com/press/african-energy-week-2021-officially-kicks-off?lang=en

Also:
https://twitter.com/DrJPPham/status/1458138101298212864

Also:
https://energycapitalpower.com/international-ministerial-delegations-promote-africa-global-partnerships-at-african-energy-week/?_thumbnail_id=33533

Also (from COP26):
https://clubofmozambique.com/news/mozambique-commits-to-halt-and-reverse-forest-loss-and-land-degradation-by-2030-and-to-a-new-renewables-target-as-part-of-its-energy-transition-204129/
[...] In his speech, His Excellency Carlos Agostinho do Rosário also spoke about Mozambique’s energy transition:

“A priority for Mozambique is the implementation of an energy transition programme based on a diversified grid, with cleaner and more environmentally friendly energy sources, which are in line with our country’s development plans.

“We defend a gradual and phased transition to minimize the impact on the economic development process of our country. It is within this context that Mozambique proposes to use natural gas as a transition energy towards cleaner sources’’

His Excellency the Prime Minister went on to announce a new renewable energy target. Mozambique’s goal is for 62% of power to the national grid to come from renewable energy sources by 2030."

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Is useful to add that on the final of Africa Energy Week, (11 Nov), Max Tonela, Minister for Moz's MIREME, is due to speak as part of a panel. Panel Discussion called: ---

'Toward inclusive African energy transition while eradicating energy poverty through affordable, sustainable and clean energy mix.'

-- will completely be about making the case for using conventional sources of energy, including coal, gas etc

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Whatever perceived political blockages (around sensitivities attached to coal) there may have been before, am now confident they all mostly gone. Now only a matter of due process, NCCL submitting Integration Solution to EDM, getting Integration Solution approved by EDM, and then getting the tariff over the line (tariff linked to cost-savings that underpin a/ the 'competitive' tariff).

Let's see...

The Parties involved in this project show this is vert much alive:

1. CMEC/ Chinese State - EPC recently signed, and binding JDA in place
2. Africa Finance Corp (AFC, Africa's largest native/ indigenuous development fund, is one of our largest shareholders)
3. Polenergia (Poland's largest private energy company, are one of our largest shareholders).
4. World Bank establishing transmission infrastructure to suport project's like ours.
5. EDM/ Moz Power plan cites 1200MW of Tete derived coal power to come on line between 2024/25 and 2038 - where we the only major Tete coal project in sight.

Etc. etc.

Can see why World Bank have chosen a German company to oversee the works (not to mention that the Germans have out in a wedge to build the Line and Substation).

A good point Hammerphil. Looks like so much was out of NCCLs hands, to be fair to them.

Let's see if CMECs comments about '...delivering the project in the near future' are realised :-)

From the link

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'Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (ESCOM) has awarded key contracts for the construction of the 218kms transmission interconnector from Matambo substation under the Mozambique–Malawi interconnection project.'

Announcing this at a press briefing in Blantyre on Tuesday, ESCOM’s Senior Project Manager Alex Kaitane said an Indian contractor, L&T will do the construction works of transmission line and the extension of Phombeya substation in Balaka.

'While Chinese firm, Sinohydro will upgrade works at Matambo substation — both works to be supervised by Gopa Intec International from Germany.'

“These [contracts] have just been awarded in the past month,” Kaitane said. “The contractors are now busy mobilising moving into design phase and then we shall proceed into the rest of the project.”'

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Remembering this news article from Aug 15, 2021 :

‘Mozambique inks deal to complete Mozambique-Malawi Interconnection Project’
https://constructionreviewonline.com/news/mozambique-inks-deal-to-complete-mozambique-malawi-interconnection-project/ ‘Mozambique is rich in conventional and renewable sources of energy and presents itself as a regional energy hub, so the interconnection between Mozambique and Malawi provides access to the regional market, enabling large energy projects in Mozambique to become viable,” said Mozambique’s Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, Max Tonela.’

---- The key bit: "...the interconnection between Mozambique and Malawi provides access to the regional market, enabling large energy projects in Mozambique to become viable,” said Mozambique’s Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, Max Tonela" (That's from a relevant Minister!)

Great work hammerphil!

This is signfiicant progress :-)