Member Info for Cephalo

Maybe you have accidental sneak preview Stockcheque :-)

We don’t know what the mcap would be of the combined rto entity.

That 10p will have a different value than the old Logp 10p. The 100million ect valuation will not be factored into the unsuspended company and new mcap because that is ringfenced for Logp shareholders pre-suspension.

Yes, whichever way you look at it, the government are cornered on that point. Should they reject PRD on the basis of financial capability, this will re-enforce LOGP’s claim using the ECT. The court would surely view such decision with raised eyebrows given “Predator agreed in principle, a farm-out on successor authorisation for Corrib South“

If LG was the financial backstop it would be ideal. Steven Boldy is on the board of both companies. It’s hard not to imagine some connectivity between the two, except Logp will be reversing into a cash or asset holding entity that in all odds will likely not be LG’s company. That means it’s likely to be another company who has an interest in taking a punt that re-instatement of the license will provide a share of development of Barryroe, but who in the first instance stand to value a shell with write downs or losses that might offset their tax bill.

Interesting that they are questioning financial capability with PRD as well. That old chestnut.

Guiding, GKP were extracting low api oil, almost as thick as bitumen. Slightly different from extracting gas from fine sand.

That makes a lot of sense StockC. Say LG puts in €200m as his share of the rto, Logp as the vehicle will be contributing nothing up front, but the value of write downs, costs and losses + €100million++ (prospectively if the license is re-instated concurrent with the rto, or tangibly if the ect case route is taken) as future value. That should value logp’s share of the deal significantly higher. Let’s not get too excited because the rto company is highly likely to be a fresh company. However, LG’s backing, either as the rto entity, or as a partner to logp’s new rto entity, should pave the way to good valuation, and in the latter case where they may need a fund raise. The Logp share of a rto with LG would be gold dust, even if the valuation is slightly lower at the outset, due to the bottomless backstop LG could provide.

Not quite that much guys, remember Providence had several other licences on which it burned that money in the Atlantic margin in which Lansdowne were not stakeholders. The Barryroe SEL 1/11 part of that expenditure is a smaller fraction of it, then Logp have 20% of those costs. A case under the ect assumes a realisable valuation of the existing 2C reserves at an estimated 100million euros, that of course is excluding compensation for lost opportunities, and costs accrued so far/write downs, which I am not sure how much. My previous post was based on these being around £20million, but I don’t know the exact figure.

The current market cap sits at about 1/20th of its value if you base this on accrued losses and business related expense offsets. As you say, in the case where LOGP reverse into Barryroe or another energy related company, this should instantly relate the valuation. Without taking into consideration anything else, it makes me think it quite possible we could come back onto the market with shares that have a value equivalent to 1.5-2p in terms of LOGP’s suspension value.

Exciting! Light at the end of the tunnel.

Well said donalb, he’s banging that old chestnut again in the hope he has a new captive audience. There’s something a bit ocd about it.

He got the job for the same reason all the woke infested politicians in the UK and US The spread of Marxism and putting criminals, victimhood minorities grifters and incompetents on pedestals.

Flashgarden, I feel like I am in the ending of Butch Cassidy & the Sundance Kid with this, clinging to hope.

LG didn't buy Barryroe Energy just because 80% of the license was 'worthless'.

"Landowne have no stake in the new Barryroe company nor will LG give it any"

Accuracy is everything Flombo ;-)

Lansdowne Celtic Sea had 20% of the overall Barryroe license, and still have 9.00% of Helvick Lease Undertaking (49/9p) - MFDevCo have 10% of Helvick currently. "There is provision in the Farm-In Agreement for further equity assignment (up to 40%) based on MFDevCo undertaking the agreed work programme to evaluate low-cost development options, receipt of a Petroleum Lease from the Minister and the approval of any Plan of Development.

Should this take place, Lansdowne’s interest will reduce to 5.00%" It's not a major resource but it still holds a few million in value for LOGP if developed further.

The financial capability the government previously demanded is now - effectively - underwritten by Larry Goodman, who can easily meet the financial criteria for 100% of the license in their Ryan eyes. If the license for Barryroe is re-instated, the 20% share will revert to LOGP if they can demonstrate financial capability to a partner (not the government) and they postpone their right to sue the government, (not waive it btw). The right to sue under the ECT will be a powerful backstop to protect the whole investment, and is therefore of significance to LG. Beyond that, who knows whether they will partner in Barryroe Transition Energy Ltd? That matters not because they still have the 20% of the original scope of the license.

Part of me would prefer quick return by ECT action, but there's an enormous potential in Barryroe beyond the current 2C resources on which the 100 million damages and losses valuation would be based upon. If LOGP sue for 20% of the license and LG develops Barryroe, what would happen to the 20% of the license now settled by the government? Well, the government could then take that 20% share as it's own, having paid LOGP shareholders on the register at the time of the suspension. That's a win win for everyone. The government would then participate in a potentially huge upside of Barryroe license (Not Barryroe Transition Energy ltd, but the Barryroe license) based upon the prospectivity outlined below...

N.B. Still on the up to date website "Further incremental resource potential has been identified in logged hydrocarbon bearing intervals within stacked Lower Wealden and Purbeckian sandstones which Providence has previously estimated contains total associated P90, P50 & P10 in place oil resources of 456 MMBO, 778 MMBO & 1,165 MMBO respectively. As there is currently limited reservoir and well test data available over these two intervals, future well data over these specific zones would be required in order to firm up their associated final recoverable resource estimates"

If that were the case Flombo, LOGP would have already commenced legal proceeding under the ECT, having written off hope of re-instatement of the license. It's more likely that the company formed by a reverse takeover will be able to finance their share of 20% Barryroe Transition Energy and thus protected from predatory moves by the likes of LG. This name change implies discussions behind the scenes towards a new program of development, a condition of which would be that LOGP refrain from suing the government.

If they make a settlement with LOGP, it would have to be substantial. I doubt it would be a quiet one. Also, should that occur, the implication would be that there is a permanent veto on Barryroe’s development, by anyone, ever. I can’t see that happening, because it will become a critical resource when straining threshold is passed.

Widened pre-tax loss is the only reason the market is ambivalent about this update. It's not the end of the world , more to offset later.

"How are they funding the LNG project but NOT using Equity?

Discuss"

Read the RNS, "Underpinning the opportunity that our drilling has created is the new Memorandum of Understanding that was executed with a downstream pan-African entity. This agreement proposes to fund, construct, operate and create a pilot micro-LNG business at no cost to the Company, supported by the potential gas resources around the MOU-3 well."

Muppet

"Mou-5

'Gas chromatograph data and wireline logs do not show evidence of the presence of hydrocarbons.'

---

You were wrong, GRH."

Don't lie, this wasn't written in an RNS

"Fully funded to satisfy all commitments for the next twelve months"

"Offshore Ireland the application for a successor authorisation to the Corrib South Licensing Option 16/26 is still progressing. At the end of the reporting period the GSRO indicated that the process was near completion but once again asked for additional clarification of financial information."

.... They haven't done an Eamonn Ryan and written this off PRD as financially incapable, it awaits common sense from the Irish government.

MOU5:

"Presence of mobilised salt, confirmed for the first time in the area, sets up the potential for an additional deeper Triassic target with geological analogues at the Meskala and Tendrara gas fields in Morocco and Hassi R'Mel gas field in Algeria"

" With the presence of unexpected salt, the location proved to be considerably downdip from the crest, however a new deeper reservoir was found, water wet in this location, but offering a new exploration target" - Is there an oil/water contact point further up toward the crest of the formation? They want to find out. This would be an unexpected freebie!

"further exploration with emphasis on helium and developing a potential Triassic target within the structure tested by MOU-5"

MOU3:

" ..mud weight reached a critical threshold gas entry into the wells was suppressed and in other wells potentially totally suppressed by the over-balanced drilling. Underpinning the opportunity that our drilling has created is the new Memorandum of Understanding that was executed with a downstream pan-African entity. This agreement proposes to fund, construct, operate and create a pilot micro-LNG business at no cost to the Company, supported by the potential gas resources around the MOU-3 well". The gas is there, just needs revisiting with balanced mud, and the large perforating guns or pre-perforated casing

TT:

" Company receives 30% of gross revenues less taxes and royalties from existing production of 285 bopd and 15% of gross revenues for enhanced production until 100% recovery of NABI costs in 13 heavy well workovers and infield drilling over the next 24 months. The Company has no exposure to field operating costs nor investment in the firm licence obligations involving well workovers and drilling and historical licence liabilities."

.... this means 15-30% of gross revenue for oil for the first 24 months, increasing after costs have been paid back. If the workovers double production output, then 15% of the extra is added to the current revenue. which stands at $33k per week. Let's assume $50k per week, then we can expect a total of c.$2.5million in the year following the signing of the deal.

"At some point in the growth cycle critical mass may be reached that potentially generates a divestment opportunity of a well-managed asset".

There was oil leaking out in mou5 was there not?

Delineation delineation delineation?

Overweight on every well to prevent blowouts? Same overweight mud ‘mistake’ repeated, or deliberate data gathering exercise with a view to going for clean production wells when all mapped out? Mou3 and/or Mou6 being first, depending on whether the self pressure cleanup technique works.

12 months maximum and Morocco is dealt. Who knows, they could find a way to expedite mou6 if Chevron or Schlumberger etc find some casing down the back of the sofa.