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Jeffrey Auld, Non-Executive Chairman of Lansdowne Oil & Gas plc, commented:

"We are delighted to have received such strong shareholder support for all aspects of the transaction. We look forward to returning to trading on AIM, advancing our new critical minerals work programme in Brazil and continuing our ECT arbitration to seek compensation for the loss of the Barryroe asset. Finally, I would like to welcome Luis Azevedo to our Board and we look forward to working with him."

LRES will be the ticker for Lansdowne Resources Plc

Fingers crossed. No idea if my shares will be worth the same or less than they were before. Good luck all.

Interesting points Eareye, either way then it's in the government's interest to comply with both parties without delay.

@swizz In light of the Irish government discussions about giving the nod to Corrib, what would be the situation if they also re-instated the Barryroe license? Presumably the government would re-evaluate tenders and LG would take the whole lot because LOGP have decided to sue, and won't be considered eligible partners anyway due to not fulfilling the 'criteria'. Steve Boldy has the lions share of knowledge but the data on the Barryroe asset is part of what LG acquired.

Well, two law firms pawed over this for 18 months and once satisfied it was likely to be a winner, took it on as a no win no fee case - Lansdowne signed an engagement letter with Diamond McCarthy "The EL provides for Lansdowne's expected costs associated with the claim, to be fully funded by Diamond McCarthy LLP, on a NON-RECOURSE basis"

And with potential fee of 30-35% of the payout, the lawyers will want the award to be as much as possible. To our great advantage the court of arbitration ICSID and it's tribunal are US based and in an ECT independent observer state. Furthermore, the law firm is a specialist US law firm, and just by virtue of being American, they don't litigate for European rates of payout. Then partnering with a renowned UK/Middle Eastern arbitration firm.

Pushing for "at least" $100million payout + interest compounded + costs.

"Diamond McCarthy is a U.S. law firm with decades of experience in cross-border litigation and international arbitration. Lansdowne has been advised on its claim by Mantle Law, a London and United Arab Emirates based international arbitration law firm with a focus on energy, construction, and infrastructure disputes. Mantle Law and Diamond McCarthy will co-counsel to progress the claim to conclusion"

Zac said a month ago we were close to a golden cross and 5.5p or something

Run out of stock at 4p then

It would seem like a waste to settle for 50% just to get a return tomorrow, when you could get 100% + value if you allow the process to play out over a year (say)

The emphasis on the deeper target in a changed MOU6 could well suggest that MOU3 is becoming viable in the shallower A-sands, hence 6 objective is no longer to duplicate that well. A deal appears to be done, what appears to be outstanding is the final price, and that is contingent on a piece of information that relates to MOU6. This is being drilled by the new interested party on their terms and at their cost, but probably at the behest of PRD who didn't want to concede the well, but without agreeing to it they would indicate to the prospective buyer they would be lose the deal. This implies that PRD were the ones who decided to prospect deeper in this well, which surely re-enforces the notion that MOU3 is recovering pressure. It would not be unreasonable by the same token to be expected to bear significant upside.

The best outcome for the Irish government is definitely to make an early settlement with LOGP. This will allow them to save face on the license rescind on financial capability grounds. By paying LOGP, they will agree to be barred from reapplying for their 20% of the license - although they would suddenly have financial capacity, LOGP will have moved on to pastures new, a different business model and 'won't be interested'. Then government will not need to do a U-turn and look weak, which will appease the green activists. LOGP shareholders will go home happy, and won't have to wait 2 years before value realisation. Larry Goodman may as well take 100% of the license, they can be validated on the terms LOGP were disqualified with easy proof of financial credibility. This gives the government a great face save and validation for their financial capability 'requirement'. LG will have no need to consider shareholders, or for us to be diluted heavily if LOGP participate in the 20% going forward. They can design a new green Barryroe business model and justify the extraction of oil and gas as a transition measure.

"As previously reported, the Company is pursuing a claim of a minimum US$100 million plus interest.

On 27 April 2026 the ECT Secretariat announced that it had received notification of Ireland's withdrawal from the Treaty. It further noted that this will become effective one year after its notification to the Secretariat - from 28 April 2027. It also noted that Ireland will continue to be bound by the 20-year sunset clause. Accordingly, Ireland's withdrawal from the ECT will have no bearing on Lansdowne's case".

$100 million is the MINIMUM claim, that valuation probably based on the 2C resources they have share of. I suspect these law firms and the arbitration panel will be aiming for a lot more based on lost opportunities, particularly given US firms have a thirst for high payouts from litigation.

The exit from the ECT is a recognition of liability in itself, they know the staggering costs they will have to pay for any breach of these contracts and want to mitigate it.

I started to think they would suspend PRD and make an announcement then wake up to the deal value. That would catch anyone out if they are not IN. However, now Flagstaff are publishing this significant research, I am instead anticipating a market based rise into the stratospheric range. This will allow those on the sidelines to buy in and not miss out with sudden suspension. Very decent of the BoD to do this. However, the rise will be something along the lines of Dana petroleum, a sudden and rapid extended near vertical rise. This will give people the chance to trade at all levels with clean gap coverage - If they are logged in that day. Good luck

In other words, same site, two wells producing from 2 different strata simultaneously

What if both come on line simultaneously? In other words MOU3 has repaired itself. Mud has reversed out of the well bore?

MOU6 no longer targeting biogenic gas in the A sands, but deeper thermogenic.

That's what I think is under review at the moment

You've made a great case for full divestment Rambo. I do think all will be revealed soon, though I can't help sensing they will try to retain a small percentage equity. I would guess they would like to retain net 1-3%, which would be enormous over the years if this includes the untouched 2850km.

I must admit to being blown away by the analysis in Jasper's note. Brilliantly documented trawl of information available in various forms in the public domain. You don't get better from (over)paid financial analysts. I am really curious now that Flagstaff have this note authorised, what value they will put on PRD. It has after all been £1.58 per share for several years now. Interested to see what adjustments there may be if any.

Something to do with evaluating flow rates and lift across the 'production' system?

Swizz, thanks for putting all that into context, it really does strike me as incredibly decent of the BoD. Even with the current numbers, I think I will exceed my original investment by a significant margin.

Apart from the Irish government, the blame lies in part with Tony O'Reilly for overlooking Barryroe's development in production in favour of multiple other exploration prospects. Huge amounts of money were spent attempting to make a portfolio of discoveries in the Atlantic Margin and elsewhere. He was always clear that he didn't want to become a producer. Then he threw in the towel after running out of cash after a string of failures, and then it was too late to produce Barryroe from the back burner..

I have held shares on and off since the Ramco days, before the spin-off. It is only because I met the LOGP BoD several times that I held on to my hat all this time.

EarEyeAm, just pointing out from what you posted, they value it at $104m without taking into account costs accrued of $24m.

"the Phase 1 development and in the 2C oil resources case, delivers an NPV10 per cent. for the Group's 20 per cent. share of $104 million under a Brent Oil Price assumption of US$68 per barrel in 2027, rising to $70/bbl in 2028 and 2029 and inflated at 2 per cent. per annum thereafter. The price of Brent Oil stands currently at c. $100/bbl, above the price modelled in 2022. As stated, the 2022 Competent Person's Report has only addressed the oil in the Basal Wealden A Sand"

So in a base case, I would expect they are aiming for a rounded $100m, plus costs, plus interest. Thus, in my conservative case outlined below, that would equate to $146m. (I suppose that a punitive interest rate would be imposed on top of that if the government are late paying the award, along the same line as Zenith. We would hope not to anticipate that, for the alleviation of uncertainty). This is why I don't think they will get less than the stated $100m in the case where they do not get the full award anticipated.

$146m is a very good outcome if you have a million plus shares in LOGP. It would equate to more than £50k