Member Info for cbaron

cont.
or tails.

Apologies for the length of this missive.

GS,
You and I, share some views and not others. In answer to the sale of shares, we can neither prove nor disprove that the Farallon debt owed by GB has been repaid and so it is perfectly feasible that there may be a continued sell down. However, in order to service the debt owed to Farallon, the higher the SP then the fewer shares will need to be sold to compensate debt servicing and repayment costs.
As to Pander's conundrum @ 18.11, it's almost unsolvable. Head says cash out and realise your gain. Heart says I may make more if I stay, if the price goes up again, head says , but you may lose some of the gain if the SP dips. Compromise? Go with the head and take some profit, bank it, and leave a stake in the game, for the heart, that you're happy to lose if the SP were to drop and never recover. If good news comes along and you're confident of getting back in, only do so if you're happy to lose your stake. At least you cashed a profit earlier. All of this sounds like common sense, but I'd hazard a guess that almost all of us are guilty of playing this particular conundrum and getting it wrong. Who is to say that my theory is any better than anyone else's?
My own view, whatsit on the block, is that the SP has a little way to go yet before we're at 'stick or bust' time.
Negatives: Possible fund raise ahead of the next drill which could cause dilution and a dip in the SP. The next drill is a duster.
Positives: A short term increase in SP ahead of the drill, which at least compensates the dilution as is often (though not always) the case - a good point to re-evaluate ahead of drill results. An already positive (though not yet proven) resource estimate suggesting a successful drill outcome which would lead to a positive revaluation of the SP and an ultimate position way ahead of where we are now, potentially leading to multiple(s) of the current SP. (The RISKY bit). Do I believe that the results will be good enough to enhance the SP beyond the speculative rise ahead of the publication of the results???
Back to risk/reward scenarios - is it better to cash out on all , leave the whole stake in on a high risk play or do a bit of both to retain some profit whilst leaving an affordable stake in the game? This is all highly personal and is all about affordability and your own attitude to risk.
Where do I currently stand?
The current published results from the Talitha-A well give me a great deal of confidence in this oil play (let me just confirm that this is from the viewpoint of my own DD as an amateur investor, reading the information to hand in the public domain). Interestingly, our near neighbours at 88e appear to be taking confidence in the Talitha oil bearing strata extrapolating into their own leased positions. They appear to have similar belief in the positive Talitha results.
What am I going to do next?
Re-appraise my investment strategy at every stage of the process, from fund raise/dilution, FO to spud. From then on, it could be heads

For all of the cults', the flocks', apparent dislike of those asking a few meaningful questions there's an awful lot of noise being created by them about so-called derampers, now 'advanced derampers', and not listening and not engaging.
Listen to yourselves - I'd swear you're all rattled.
As for that green bars nonsense, I'll swear I've spotted a few of your having a quick peek from behind the curtains. Redirons watch out for those 'fake investors' - worse than the bogeyman................BOO!!

16.09
You've alluded to your own limited intellectual ability and vocabulary and I wouldn't normally openly agree with anyone being so honest.
To that end, trying to be clever and suggesting Yoga might help leads me to think that you're downward dog has perhaps pooped on your exercise mat. ;-)

17.23
Must have started earlier on the sauce today - as you're making little sense..........or, your wound up so tight at the inability to answer simple questions, especially for one so experienced and talented.
Be a man (a difficult concept for you to comprehend), read and respond.
Simples.

10.37
'how he speaks to people' ????
People who refer to 'sociopathic rants'. 'childish loser', 'screaming' and 'child'.
I sincerely hope these terms are not your idea of how you SHOULD speak to people and I hope you are not including yourself in 'decent'.
This is just the latest in a string of contributions and insults that ought to render his account closed..........FOR GOOD!
What a piece of work!

11.12
All funded how?

....and so Reaper what is your assessment of the financial outcomes for the company? What is your assessment of the NPV of 'assets' in the ground.
You post a long-winded and repetitive script about derampers yet offer nothing in return.
So easy to criticise others with whom you disagree to hide your own light.
Spend as much time as you clearly did last evening and enlighten us.
I won't hold my breath!
There are none so blind as those who cannot see or will not see that the oh so positive long term holders might be being conned with the Emperor's New Clothes, at least until such time as they can justify the fundamentals of the 88e business case and strategy..................in numbers, NOT HYPE!
Oh, and then there's that issue of the lack of a plan to do a flow test in the coming season following Merlin 2 - how can that be sensible as flow testing will be the only sensible way of proving a commercial find?

GS,
I'm not sure that we'll ever know the status of the current debt relationship as between CHONS/Farallon and GB until all of the shares have been sold or an RNS is published which may confirm that all debts have been paid. Once all shares have been sold then Farallon, it would appear, have no other collateral, at least not any which involves or impacts PANR. In the original RNS announcing the deal fund raising and shareholdings dated 21 December 2018, it was stated that on completion it was anticipated that the 'concert' would own 39% of PANR in a combination of voting and non-voting shares. We know from the RNS dated 29 July that the remaining non-voting shares had been converted to voting shares. We also know from the RNS dated 28 September that the total number of voting shares held was 125,079,113, equivalent to 17.99% of the total share capital of the company - so that's all that the concert have left, from a starting point of 39%.
In the absence of any ability on the part of GB to raise money elsewhere to pay off its debt to CHONS/Farallon, I suspect that the sell-off will continue. You must note however that CHONS/Farallon are only able to sell shares to pay off debts due to them through the servicing of the finance arrangements with GB, not for any other reason.
Happy to be corrected if I've misinterpreted the agreement.
18% is a sizeable stake but it is very far from one which gives the ability to exert control.

09.17
...........tempting, very tempting - oh, the fun we could have.

Good to see the debate is bang on point with wholly relevant stuff.

Where's Scott - needs a bit of livening up ;-)

Were it not for the naysayers around here it might be worth broadening the debate to the acknowledged connections with the northern neighbour, particularly as they appear to be gaining visibility and traction.
We're still waiting for results of the promised reappraisal of the historic data to analyse the potential extrapolation of excellent Talitha oil bearing strata into Icewine acreage.

Extract from 27 July 2021 RNS
· Early results from nearby Talitha-A well encouraging, with potential for extension into 88E leases.
· 88E internal geoscience team looking to reassess the potential across the acreage.

Wouldn't concentrating on the huge benefit of a shared resource close to TAPS and the Dalton Highway be beneficial for all concerned.

GS,
I respect your views, but having looked back again at the structure of the deal and the arrangements for repaying of debt by sale of shares, cannot see any ghosts. I simply see it as the ability for a lender to sell down collateral against a loan in the event of default on the part of the borrower to service that loan.
Moving on, the good thing, for GB is that as the share price improves, there will be fewer shares which need to be sold per $ of debt and so the negative impact on the SP by a reduction in the rate of sale ought to be beneficial to us all. We remain with a single shareholder with a holding in the upper teens %, but then that happens widely. At that level the single shareholder cannot trigger any actions which might be negative, as far as I'm aware.
Best wishes.
cb
PS The SP appears to have held up well yesterday given that there is often a retrace following a single day rise of the order we saw on Tuesday.

Sam,
Many thanks a very comprehensive and compelling article.

GS,
It always useful to have facts, not information or opinions that have somehow been tainted or manipulated. On that I think we agree.
I wouldn't want anyone to go anywhere, simply because it didn't fit with my opinion or or contradicted it. As you know, in the other place you mentioned, to refer to PANR is a treasonable offence. I quite like to do that because it is relevant to them in the case of the linkages with Talitha. They don't like to admit this linkage; IMHO it is probably their best chance of success and in a very sustainable location. The link is even referenced by their own board of Directors in its corporate communiques and presentations. Ah well.
Good luck.

PS. The shares converted from non-voting status (circa 34m) were only circa 5% of the total number of shares currently in issue (circa 693m). (RNS dated 29 July 2021).

19.56
The 17.99% represents all shares held and which comprise voting shares only, including those which were recently converted from non-voting shares.
Your argument appears to sway with the flow when the detail is queried. Why are you being so contrarian on such detail?Anyone holding a slightly contrarian view in the other place is roundly rebuked. Are you a holder? Are you a deramper? What are you doing here if you are a non-conformist?
Get my drift?
All views welcome.

........but the RNS was timed at 5.23pm BST
The news was therefore not known until after the market closed.
The 17.99% remaining are voting shares.

Pity the threshold date wasn't today, as it may have been less painful for GB.

3standsoffbottom,
Kind words, thank you. I took the opportunity to read your back catalogue and realise that your moniker is likely associated with your job as a driller. Am I correct in thinking 3 stands is a measurement from the bottom of the hole?
I'm sure your knowledge of the process will be invaluable to us all, as is your humour and style.
Kind regards
cb

..........anyway, a good day if you own PANR shares. Hopefully, the start of a justifiable re-rate and OTC in the US appear to have woken up too. ;-)

GS,
Still not quite sure that you 'get it'. Ah well?