Member Info for CauldStream7

Pokerchips:

I'm sure that Oscar can explain this better than I can. The upcoming Lupuzor trial is a collaboration between IMM and Avion in which the latter bears the cost of the trial and in return, Imm bestows on it the sole right to trade Lupuzor in North America. In the lead-up to the start of the trial, the scientists of the two companies are collaborating on the design and parameters of the trial.

In addition, if the trial is successful, Avion will pay IMM further fees based on FDA approval of Lupuzor and sales performance. So it is mistaken to call the new trial as belonging to Avion and entitling them to all the data that it accrues. It will be equally shared with IMM who will no doubt be in discussions with Avion throughout the trial.

Lordsloadsoflolly:

Let's not get bogged down by semantics. Oscar's analysis is 1. The time that it takes to get all the details of a successful Lupuzor trial is considerable. 2. The information, including from mistakes, that Avion and IMM have acquired in the past 4 years in dealing with earlier trials and with the FDA, is invaluable to ensuring the the forthcoming P2/3 trial will be as well constructed as possible. 3. This delay in the news flow should not be used for wild speculation. 4. It's a time for patience.

Oscar has also done us a service in explaining the Lanstead Share Agreements. I admit that I don't wholly understand them but it seems that Lanstead benefits whether the SP sinks or swims. It the price sinks during one month, they pay IMM less at the end of the month for the shares they have already pledged to buy. If the share price rises above an average of 2.64p in the month, at the end of that month, Lanstead pays more than it has pledged for that month's tranche of shares it has agreed to buy. But the base price used to calculate the excess they have to pay over the pledged amount is 30% over the price they have paid for the shares. And their entire share holding benefits from the increased share price. So they win both ways. They only lose if IMM not only sinks but capsizes. Why would they do that? Simple?

Anyway, oscar, you deserve an Oscar for your well informed contributions to this BB.

5RINGS; I would love you to be correct about Tim being about to announce fantastic news. But what evidence do you have? Is it just a gut feeling?

Draye:

I am unable to pontificate on the cause of the delay in announcing the start of the Lupuzor 2/3 Trial. I think it is hardly likely to have much to do with Tim McC being incompetent or not. I assumed that the recruitment of a CRO to conduct the trial would be mainly in the hands of Avion and that the selected CRO would be American. But I think we should be given guidance from IMM on why it is taking so long to move on to the next stage of the Lupuzor saga.

Willdbunch:

Your obversation that 3 CROs are being considered for the 2/3 Lupuzor Trial is more than I knew. Do you have any more information on how long the time frame is for making a decision on which of the three will be chosen? It seems to be taking an awfully long time.

MaverickD;

Thanks for your messaging. I think we are in on the same page. I feel particularly interested because some of my relatives suffer from auto-immune diseases such as Lupus, Crohns and Asthma.

In his latest interviews, Tim has held to H2 being the time frame for approval of the Lupuzor trial's design and approval, and for solid news on funding agreements with partners for CIDP and ROW Lupuzor. His credibility would be zero if Lupuzor Phase 2/3 Trial is not approved and if there is not substantial news on funding of CIDP, etc.

I am hopeful that at least some of his optimism will be justified.

Have just reached a million shares. Failure or fortune?

Maidit:

I can't say that I heard anything from Tim that was not already in the public knowledge. Can you enlighten us on the matters that Tim mentioned that were not known already to investors?

Dallo;

I agree with you and continue to believe that in its recent RNS announcements (which have been quite numerous) there is reason to believ that both IMM and Avion are serious collaborators and do intend to start the Lupuzor trial as soon as they are satisfied that they have the best Contract Research Organisation to conduct it. I am surprised it has taken so long but the last thing we want to see is a failed trial caused by mistakes in carrying it out.

I cannot believe that IMM would appoint as a director a senior pharma figure whose credentials were set out in its RNS of the 11th August. IMM must be paying him (Dr Laurence Reilly) a substantial salary package. Would they do that if they were not serious in doing deals for the licencing of CIDP and the ROW rights to Lupuzor?

I have invested in IMM for a decade believing that their peptide R and D, including the discovery of Lupuzor, would lead eventually to great advances in immunotherapies and considerable financial success. Despite all the setbacks I still hold to that belief. But it's taking much longer than I imagined, mainly because the first Phase 3 trial of Lupuzor failed. That fate must not be repeated. An extra month of two choosing the best CRO may save years in future.

LLoL:

For me it's always the SP that is important although I note the Bid and Ask prices too. But surely it's only sensible to concentrate on the strike price between these two which I see as representing the floor and ceiling of the price range.

However, in today's case, since there is only one deal and it is at a SP of 2.14p, very little can be read into it.

Maidit308.

"who knows what tomorrow will bring?"

The start of the Lupuzor Phase 2//3 Trial, I hope.

Wildbunch:

There is no point in me phoning Tim. I might/might not learn something that will reassure me. But what is needed is an update for shareholders on the preparations for the Adaptive Phase 2/3 Trial for Lupuzor.. I know this is the No1 concern for shareholders, not just for me.

Oscar:

Thank you for explaining the rationale behind the decision to extend the Share Warrants in Incanthera.

What I would really like an explanation of is the delay in announcing the commencement date for the Phase 2/3 Trial of Lupuzor.

I have heard that the delay arises from the need to conduct due diligence on the various CROs (contract research organisations) which have expressed an interest in carrying out this trial. But even allowing for the importance of ensuring that the chosen CRO has the skill set in its employees to carry out the Trial expertly, it is beginning to stretch credibility that it has taken this long to choose a suitable CRO.

In his last Proactive interview, Tim McC. stated that IMM and Avion had anticipated the go-ahead from the FDA for Avion's proposals for the Trial and were ahead in planning the practicalities including contact with CROs. So far there has been precious little to show for it.

Can you clarify these matters? I am sure there are many like me who are wondering what on earth is going on.

Thanks, Maidit. Like you, I've held IMM shares for several years so I know how difficult/impossible it is to predict this stock's price movements.

But I still can't follow the logic of today's Buy/Sell prices nor the tactic of a shareholder who for the past few days has been buying small tranches of 500 shares costing around £12. I guess it is part of a tactic for changing the market price before he buys big time, but it still makes me scratch my head.

I just wish to God that we had some news about the commencement of the Phase 2/3 Lupuzor trial and/or the CIDP and ROW Lupuzor collaborations. We should then see the SP move to solid double digit numbers.

Can anyone explain what is going on when buyers are paying a lower price for their shares than sellers are receiving for theirs?

MaverickD;

Is the !.7 million a Buy or a Sell in your opinion?

Lambo -

It's very kind of you to offer your financial advice for free to the Board of IMM. I'm sure they appreciate it even tho' you obviously feel they need to be reminded by you at least once a week.

Loadsof ...

I don't agree with you.

As soon as there is an announcement that a pharma has signed a deal to finance the next CIDP trial and to pay IMM a substantial downpayment, likewise with the Lupuzor ROW trial with an upfront payment, then the price will rise substantially. That should be 2 or 3 years ahead the results of the new adaptive Lupuzor trial.

Loadsof.../Maverick

The truth is likely to lie between the two of you. I doubt if news is imminent in the sense of this week or next. Nor do I believe it is years away. I expect that we'll receive news of the start of the Adaptive 2/3 trial for Lupuzor and the appointment of a Contract Research Organisation to carry it out before the end of August.

And I expect that before the end of this half year, but possibly not until November/December, the announcement of a deal with another pharma company to finance the next trial stage for CIDP. And with the same, or a different, pharma company for ROW Lupuzor - but that might take longer and depend on the progress of the adaptive trial about to start.

The most interesting of Oscar's posts this month are dated 3rd and 6th July and both relate to Tim's Proactive interview on the 28th June.