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Nolupus: so you really expect us to believe that the Lupuzor Phase 3 trial will not begin until after 31 December 2022?
Nolupus: do you mean Financial year end? 30 June ?
draye: Good question. I think that the on-going discussions between Avion/IMM with the FDA will determine how long the Phase 3 trial will take. From Avion and IMM, there are a number of requirements that the FDA will ask for to ensure that the trial meets the FDA's standards for judging success, but how exactly will success be measured? I am not surprised that it is taking weeks rather than days for agreement on the architecture and aims of the trial to be agreed. And whatever is agreed it could make a great difference to the time taken to complete the trial and achieve a result.
It's much better to spend extra days now on these negotiations than extra months or more on the trial.
Why are the Sell prices above the Buy prices so far today?
Notaflipper: You're correct about the rock bottom sp of IMM for the past year, but the periods when price has been around 5.5p have been much more limited, and that's what I've been targeting for the past 4 months.
Have been looking again at the Lansdown deal. The nominal price of the shares they have is 11pm but the price which is used to calculate whether the full monthly instalment is received by IMM is 14.667p. calculated over a 20 day period during that month. So the first month's average share price will probably be about 6p, which works out at around 40% of the target price of 14.667p and that is the proportion of the theoretical Lansdown monthly instalment which will actually be received. Let's hope something happens to buck up the sp before the end of the month.
MaverickD: I'm so glad I bought more shares yest. on a dip. My largest holding is not yet IMM but should the price rise to a better level it will be. So hoping that the PK study will be +ve, but we've had so many disappointments I'm not taking anything for granted. If PK results are OK then we should proceed to Phase 3 Lupuzor and the start of CIDP trial. That plus +ve results of BioAMB trials should push the sp to a much higher level.
This seller provides an opportunity to accumulate more shares dirt cheap so I'm not complaining. Fully expect PK Study to be positive and for CIDP trial to begin shortly after. Dificult to prevent a price rise then.
Pokerchips:
I agree with you.
Incanthera is a strange business. We were told by Tim McC ages ago that a big deal was being agreed for marketing Sol through a major company. I guess this has not materialised and there is no other horse in the stable.
Pokerchips:
I can't really comment on the movements on the current sp. But I think you are mistaken in thinking that this is just a rerun of the couple of years leading up to 2018.
Provided the PK Study turns out to be OK then it will not only be the Phase 3 trial of Lupuzor that will start but soon after it is likely that the Phase 2/3 study of CIDP which uses the same drug as Lupuzor will also get the go-ahead and be completed before the Lupuzor Phase 3.
Moreover, there may be positive news on BioAMB in Q2. So it's a better overall situation than 2018 with more scope for positive news flow. And perhaps less pump and dump.
Michael2021 and others.
Why guesstimate the future sp? No one can tell. We have already been told by IMM that the PK Study won't be completed until the end of Q1, after which the results have to be sent to the FDA which will decide whether the end results of the Study have been met. I doubt if anyone knows how long the FDA will take to reach a decision.
So between then and now we may have a gap of around 2 months - a very long time for impatient shareholders. Some will give up and the long term holders will hold on. Some of them may add to their holdings if the sp sinks to around 5p because the potential gains will be very large if the PK Study is successful. Why sell now if one has held on for several years through thick and thin?
ShareholderACE:
You say that we are at the same stage as in 2008. I don't agree.
In 2008 we had Lupuzor and nothing else.
Now, we have Lupuzor, CIDP, BioAMB and BioCin. In the first three cases we should have significant news about their progress. CIDP and BioAMB are probably closer to commercialisation than Lupuzor. So IMM is now a 3 legged pony whereas in 2008 it was running on only one leg. The remaining leg is BioCin - hope there too but a longer wait for results.
Definitely more room for hope for a substantial rise this year in the SP.
Notaflipper:
It's only a month since Alora, the parent company of Avion, invested £1.2 in IMM. This looked to me to be an important signal that IMM's American partner in the PK Study and the Lupuzor P3 trial was seriously supportive of IMM and its science.
Pharma research is different from Bitcoin so don't expect day by day changes in outlook - and it's not about Eureka moments. Waiting until the end of March for the all-important PK Study results is not too much to ask, is it?
Some of our contributors are pleading for news from Tim to give us reassurance and to boost the SP. But if you look back to the update on the research programme that was detailed in the RNS of 18th November, 2021, it was clear that we could not expect much news until the completion of the PK Study at the end of March - so another 2 months to wait. The most we are likely to hear now is confirmation that the volunteers on the Study have all been dosed.
Beyond March, we should then hear that two very important trials have been started: Lupuzor Phase 3 and CIDP Phase 2/3. Maybe also news on BioAMB including on whether a partner has come forward to co-finance the research programme. Maybe also a similar announcement in the case of CIDP.
So, sorry to relate, this is likely to be a no-news period until the end of March. I would love to be proved wrong!
Nolupus:
I agree with this post. But it certainly does not justify it as a "Win, win or Lose lose" arrangement.
Given that it will be another 2 months before the arrangement swings into action, I think this makes it more likely that good news will predominate next year and the following one -ie, the 2 year period of this share purchase arrangement.
Nolupus:
Can you give us a numerical example of this "Win, Win or Lose, Lose" situation?
I've been reading though the posts of Lambo222 since the announcement last Monday of a new subscription and sharing agreement between IMM and Lanstead.
:Because the shares paid for by Lanstead are pledged back to Lanstead by IMM, Lambo seems to think that Lanstead can lower the monthly repayments to IMM to reflect the price it receives for any shares it sells. From this comes his phrase "death spiral" to describe this subscription agreement.
But his contention is complete rubbish. The amount which Lanstead has to pay IMM each month under the Agreement has nothing to do with what price Lanstead receives from selling its shares. If one reads the Appendix to the Subscription Agreement between the two companies, it is calculated on the weighted average share price for the 20 days before the monthly settlement date. So although Lanstead could in theory affect the share price if its share sales are large enough to depress the average market price that can only happen if the trading is very light. But in the circumstances that we look forward to in 2022 and thereafter, we expect a regular flow of positive news about IMM's pipeline which will bring about heavy trading in which Lanstead's sales would be ineffective in influencing the market price. If they tried they would soon run out of their shares.
In the Appendix the results of 2 previous similar funding agreements which are now completed are given. The first agreement resulted in IMM gaining £0.6 million and the second resulted in its losing £0.9 million an overall loss over 4 years funding of £0.3 million. This is hardly a death spiral.
I note that this new agreement between the companies is not due to start being calculated until March 2022. I would not bet against IMM coming up with positive news about eg the PK Study before then and following it with further positive news about eg BioAMB or CIDP over the months that follow. If that news results in an upward movement of the SP it will be Lanstead that will suffer if it sells into that market. Why on earth would they? They are not stupid!
So Lambo, stop your ill-informed bleatings and read the small print of the IMM/Lanstead agreement.
Dallo:
I think that your purchase of 500,000 shares in IMM is very bold and I certainly hope/believe that you will be on your way to being a millionaire -twice over - by the end of 2022 given that your total holding is 2.5 million shares. I speak as a fellow shareholder, but on a more modest scale.
I really do believe that the omens are good for IMM for the next and following years. But I'm not convinced that in Tim McC we have a leader of the right calibre for this company.
Dallo:
I agree that the investment case for IMM has improved but I don't reckon that the start of the P3 Lupuzor trial will bring about a very significant rise in its SP.
Tim has from time to time held out the possibility of partners coming forward to help finance trials on products in the R and D pipelines of IMM and Incanthera (viz Sol) but so far there has been little forthcoming, apart I suppose from Avion. If partners come forward to pay for the commercialisation of CIDP and BioAMB then I believe that will boost the IMM SP before a successful conclusion of the P3 Trial of Lupuzor or the successful 2/3 Trial of P140 for CIDP. It will demonstrate that IMM is really not a one trick pony.
Dallo:
Thanks for bringing us up to date on the Alora Group. They increasingly appear the right partner for IMM to engage with in a new Lupuzor P3 Trial for the reasons you have outlined.
I started feeling more hopeful for IMM when it cleared out the old Board members and replaced them with a younger squad who were announced in the RNS of 30 July, 2021. In particular Sanjeev Pandja who became a NED, a man with the right CV to advise on taking the company's R and D portfolio. I also noticed that the RNS announcements became more factual especially the one dated 18th November which gave plenty of detail of the company's main products and their likely development timetable. This is probably due to the appointment of Lisa Baderoon to the Board
That new positivity has been reinforced by the research partnership agreement with Imperial College and the enthusiastic endorsement of IMM's research pipeline by Art Deas in the latest RNS. Looks good, feels good.
I don't have as large a stake in the company as you do but by my standards it's substantial. I go into 2022 much more optimistic than I felt a year ago.
I've been thinking about the significance of the purchase of nearly 11 million IMM shares by Alora, Avion's parent company. I feel certain that Alora would not have made this investment had they not felt sure that the PK Study would succeed. After all, who knows better than they that this will be so; they are in charge of the recruitment of the participants in this Study, for the dosing of them and the administration of it in cooperation with the Contract Research Organisation, Simbec Orion. Alora/Avion must be also be pretty gung-ho about the P3 Lupuzor Trial to have prepaid on its results when previously they had only committed themselves to payments to IMM AFTER the successful completion of the Trial.
It's therefore the Alora investment which is a much more powerful case for the IMM science than the Lanstead investment which may be more driven by clever financial dealing than a belief in IMM's prospects. G o wi th A lora