Member Info for CauldStream7

Nolupus:

I agree with this post. But it certainly does not justify it as a "Win, win or Lose lose" arrangement.
Given that it will be another 2 months before the arrangement swings into action, I think this makes it more likely that good news will predominate next year and the following one -ie, the 2 year period of this share purchase arrangement.

Nolupus:

Can you give us a numerical example of this "Win, Win or Lose, Lose" situation?

I've been reading though the posts of Lambo222 since the announcement last Monday of a new subscription and sharing agreement between IMM and Lanstead.
:Because the shares paid for by Lanstead are pledged back to Lanstead by IMM, Lambo seems to think that Lanstead can lower the monthly repayments to IMM to reflect the price it receives for any shares it sells. From this comes his phrase "death spiral" to describe this subscription agreement.
But his contention is complete rubbish. The amount which Lanstead has to pay IMM each month under the Agreement has nothing to do with what price Lanstead receives from selling its shares. If one reads the Appendix to the Subscription Agreement between the two companies, it is calculated on the weighted average share price for the 20 days before the monthly settlement date. So although Lanstead could in theory affect the share price if its share sales are large enough to depress the average market price that can only happen if the trading is very light. But in the circumstances that we look forward to in 2022 and thereafter, we expect a regular flow of positive news about IMM's pipeline which will bring about heavy trading in which Lanstead's sales would be ineffective in influencing the market price. If they tried they would soon run out of their shares.
In the Appendix the results of 2 previous similar funding agreements which are now completed are given. The first agreement resulted in IMM gaining £0.6 million and the second resulted in its losing £0.9 million an overall loss over 4 years funding of £0.3 million. This is hardly a death spiral.
I note that this new agreement between the companies is not due to start being calculated until March 2022. I would not bet against IMM coming up with positive news about eg the PK Study before then and following it with further positive news about eg BioAMB or CIDP over the months that follow. If that news results in an upward movement of the SP it will be Lanstead that will suffer if it sells into that market. Why on earth would they? They are not stupid!
So Lambo, stop your ill-informed bleatings and read the small print of the IMM/Lanstead agreement.

Dallo:

I think that your purchase of 500,000 shares in IMM is very bold and I certainly hope/believe that you will be on your way to being a millionaire -twice over - by the end of 2022 given that your total holding is 2.5 million shares. I speak as a fellow shareholder, but on a more modest scale.
I really do believe that the omens are good for IMM for the next and following years. But I'm not convinced that in Tim McC we have a leader of the right calibre for this company.

Dallo:
I agree that the investment case for IMM has improved but I don't reckon that the start of the P3 Lupuzor trial will bring about a very significant rise in its SP.
Tim has from time to time held out the possibility of partners coming forward to help finance trials on products in the R and D pipelines of IMM and Incanthera (viz Sol) but so far there has been little forthcoming, apart I suppose from Avion. If partners come forward to pay for the commercialisation of CIDP and BioAMB then I believe that will boost the IMM SP before a successful conclusion of the P3 Trial of Lupuzor or the successful 2/3 Trial of P140 for CIDP. It will demonstrate that IMM is really not a one trick pony.

Dallo:
Thanks for bringing us up to date on the Alora Group. They increasingly appear the right partner for IMM to engage with in a new Lupuzor P3 Trial for the reasons you have outlined.
I started feeling more hopeful for IMM when it cleared out the old Board members and replaced them with a younger squad who were announced in the RNS of 30 July, 2021. In particular Sanjeev Pandja who became a NED, a man with the right CV to advise on taking the company's R and D portfolio. I also noticed that the RNS announcements became more factual especially the one dated 18th November which gave plenty of detail of the company's main products and their likely development timetable. This is probably due to the appointment of Lisa Baderoon to the Board
That new positivity has been reinforced by the research partnership agreement with Imperial College and the enthusiastic endorsement of IMM's research pipeline by Art Deas in the latest RNS. Looks good, feels good.
I don't have as large a stake in the company as you do but by my standards it's substantial. I go into 2022 much more optimistic than I felt a year ago.

I've been thinking about the significance of the purchase of nearly 11 million IMM shares by Alora, Avion's parent company. I feel certain that Alora would not have made this investment had they not felt sure that the PK Study would succeed. After all, who knows better than they that this will be so; they are in charge of the recruitment of the participants in this Study, for the dosing of them and the administration of it in cooperation with the Contract Research Organisation, Simbec Orion. Alora/Avion must be also be pretty gung-ho about the P3 Lupuzor Trial to have prepaid on its results when previously they had only committed themselves to payments to IMM AFTER the successful completion of the Trial.
It's therefore the Alora investment which is a much more powerful case for the IMM science than the Lanstead investment which may be more driven by clever financial dealing than a belief in IMM's prospects. G o wi th A lora

Aventador:
Regarding your comment to and about ALBI1 - that was rather impolite, wasn't it? Did he really deserve it?

Aventador:

Gracias amigo. Feliz Navidad.

Nota:

I think you are confusing the end of the PK Study at the end of Q1, 2022, with the conclusion of the P3 trial of Lupuzor which will not start until after the conclusion of the PK Study,
Therefore, because the P3 Trial will not start until Q2, 2022, at the earliest, I would not expect the conclusion of that Trial before late 2023.
The CIDP 2/3 Trial also will not start until the successful conclusion of the P140/Lupuzor PK Study at the end of Q1, 2022. Hopefully it will start around the same time as the P3 Lupuzor trial but will be concluded earlier than the Lupuzor one because of a shorter trial process. Hence it is hoped to bring it earlier to the market.
In both cases, expect to hear news on the trials from time to time. Let's hope it will be positive.
We are also promised news of progress of the Anti-infectives, particularly BioAMB, especially on the co-funding front.
So I would expect positive news flow and upward movement of the SP next year.
Fingers crossed.

Fifi + Nota
The only item that was new in Tim's interview yest was concerning the subs for shares by Avion's parent and Lansdown.
I guess that Alora's investment was partly recognition of IMM's investment in producing a new, improved version of Lupuzor/P140 which must cost quite a few bucks and it also shows their commitment to the P3 Lupuzor trial.
However, in the review of IMM's research programme programme in the RNS of 19 November, it was made perfectly clear that the recruitment of participants in the PK study would not be completed until December, with dosing commencing in January and announcement of results at end of Q1. So don't get your hopes up about early news on anything connected with Lupus or CIDP until Q2 or H2 of 2022. Nevertheless looks like being a good year for IMM not forgetting news on other fronts.
It makes me laugh reading Lambo's bleatings about the warrants that have been issued as being over-generous. Had he or any of us been offered these conditions (shares priced at 11p, etc) would any of us have seen them as generous given that we were at that moment able to buy shares at about half that price?

Nolupus -

A PR job with IMM - what a good idea!

Nolupus:
I go along with Aventador in agreeing with Nolupus although not necessarily relying only on Dr Zimmer as the largest shareholder objecting to any takeover while IMM's share price is so low.
A close reading of the RNS of 18th November shows the confidence the Board in the details they provide of several important developments in the various programmes that IMM is working on: for example, the improved version of P140,
the progress on CIDP research and negotiations with 2 possible commercial collaborators with commercialisation possibly moving ahead of Lupuzor;
the confidence in a successful PK trial on P140; the progress on the anti-infective BioAMB and the negotiations with 2 possible commercial partners.
Finally, the closer and expanded agreement with CNRS for licensing P140 and the closer involvement of Prof Sylviane Muller in the P140 platform's possibilities.
All of these developments do not seem like IMM is a company on the brink of giving up as an independent pharma company. Rather it indicates a confidence on the part of the BOD that the company is close to making important breakthroughs in its research objectives.
I'm sure Dr Zimmer and other important shareholders know all this. Are they willing to sell out at this stage? I hope not.

Aventador:
I wouldn't spend too much time on ALB1. At least he and others like him are helping to keep the SP at its present record-low level. The shares IMO are an extraordinary bargain.
Better to go back to the RNS of 18 November - "the Evolution of Immupharma" and take a look at the new sense of drive and ambition that underlines it. I think it is especially meaningful that the collaboration agreement between IMM and CNRS and Prof. Muller has been strengthened, that she is taking a close interest in the development of the CIDP 2/3 trial preparations and that they are being joined in this with the leading CIDP specialist in France in this field, Prof. de Seze. And there is much else in the RNS that makes exciting reading for LTH of IMM.
All this is going to require more working capital unless CRNS is paying for some of the research. I can't believe that IMM has not worked out where this finance is coming from before agreeing these initiatives.
My personal view is that although Prof Muller has won many academic awards for her work on peptides in general and on P140/Lupuzor in particular, she must be feeling frustrated ( to put it politely) at the lack of progress on Lupuzor, CIDP and other medical applications of P140. Hence the decision for her and CRNS to become more closely involved in IMM's R and D.
After all, it would be the crowning achievement of her professional career and her lasting legacy if success in the lab is converted into real life improvement for the many thousands who suffer from Lupus, CIDP and other diseases of the autoimmune system.

ALB1.
A change of tune from you. Much appreciated.
I notice from a post you sent a few days ago that you were accusing the BOD of being only interested in keeping up their lifestyles. Has it never occurred to you that maybe, just maybe, they are more committed to the success of IMM than you or I can possibly be. Yes, we have money at stake, but the BOD and all who work for IMM have their careers and reputations at stake as well.
Might it not be possible that they are working their guts out not only for the success of our investment but also for the millions of lupus sufferers and others (like CIDP patients) whose lives will be hugely improved if their research is successful. Moreover, if they are successful it will be a big boost to their professional reputations and careers.
So stop knocking them! Try a little patience!

It's hard to get away from the conviction that ALB1 and his followers are no other than imitations of Private Fraser, the dour undertaker in Dad's Army who near the beginning of most episodes would intone "WE'RE DOOMED, DOOMED!". And at the end, when all turned out well thanks to the fortitude of his fellow members of the local Home Guard, would tell anyone who would listen "I always said that it would turn out all right!"
Myy prediction is that around the middle of 2022, when IMM has completed the PK Study and the Phase 3 of Lupuzor is underway, when a commercial partner has come on board to give impetus to the CIDP programme and another partner has been found to launch the BioAMP product, the same doomsters will be telling us that they predicted this success all the time.
So as Nolupus advised, let them get on with it instead of constantly sniping at them.

After reading the last 2 RNS notices which both confirmed the strong science behind the IMM R and D, I have been perplexed by the negative price reaction. Whlle I can understand the disappointment at the postponement of the PK study results the explanation of it indicates valid scientfic reasons for it, namely to produce an improved version of Lupuzor that will be tested in the study. It's not as though IMM has been doing nothing during the past 4 months. Instead, there is a positivity in these two RNS announcements that has been lacking in the previous two years.
The RNS concerning the collaboration with Imperial College in encouraging. Would a topline British research institute agree to this if it doubted the science excellence of IMM's labs in Bordeauxs or was unsure if IMM has the capacity to pay for Imperial's advice? I don't think so.
Which is why I continue to buy this stock; the science is excellent and the money will be forthcoming in the opinion of those who truly have inside information of the situation.

cubasteve:

I sympathise with your feelings. I've been taken aback by the hostility to the most recent RSN of most of the contributors to this BB. I thought the RNS contained rather good news apart from the delay to the PK Study for entirely plausible reasons. I welcome the news about the CIDP study especially the close involvements of Professors Muller and de Seze.
My main concern is the financial of position of IMM and its capacity to continue its R and D until it finds commercial partners to share the financial burden. A futher RNS on this point would be welcome.
Otherwise, I guess the best advice is to ignore this BB for the next 3 months and see what transpires. As a shareholder you should receive any new RNS that comes along in this period - the only source of reliable information about IMM. No outsider really has a clue.
If you want to buy/sell, set your stop orders and take a holiday!
ATB.

The first line should have read "to give the new team time".

Nolupus:

Very sensible advice re patience to give the new time to achieve results. But like you, I'd like to hear about Sol (weren't we told to expect exciting news by Xmas?) and the the Tim prediction of the "cash runway" until 2023. Does the runway still extend that far?