RE: One year ago today14 Feb 2025 12:47
I think they got a very good deal off Selan all things considered. The two main problems are:
1 : India just seems to be delay, delay, delay. Whether that’s the government, or companies were working with. In fact saying it ‘seems to be’ is an understatement because pretty much every timeline in the last 15 years has ended up being pushed back with multiple issues. As soon as one issue is resolved with someone another issues comes up with someone else. You’d think by now the company would know to factor these in and resolve them quickly but unfortunately they have proven themselves incapable of this time and time again.
2: So far Cambay has eaten hundreds of millions of ££ and produced about as much gas than a curry night down the local.
The idea of all these workovers producing x y z rainbow figures is already over as the first few have pretty much failed. However if they can get maybe one workover flowing at a very decent rate it might actually give a bit of breathing space financially and hopefully a blueprint for future drilling techniques. At least there seems to be some progress on doing this, all be it, unsuccessfully so far. Problem is Q2 for the new drills can easily be Q4 in India, and with more regulatory issues by the govt, that can easily be Q2 2026. It’s also possible that with these workovers failing, Selan seem a lot less motivated or excised to progress the expensive stuff and could end up with a GSPC situation again where they cut there losses and don’t even bother spending any more. So I’ll believe it when I see it, for now there doesn’t seem to be anything imminently exciting to suggest piling in but the shares are approaching good value to mop up a few and keep tucked away for 6-12 months.