The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
I was in here for quite a chunk but i have recently sold for evens.
I've realised this was is going to continue indefinitely - look at every other conflict out there - Afghanistan, Syria, Palestine, Nigeria - all of these conflicts take years to resolve, if at all. During this time there is a constant risk of FXPO being bombed, nationalised, legal action etc etc etc.
If the upside was a 10 bagger like Evraz it might be worth a punt, but realistically even a best case scenario only takes this to £3 a share imo.
out. GLA
And I'm in werrington :)
Anyone on here spoken to HL about what this means? Sounds like a paper certificate is a worthwhile request? How do you get one?
DeListing wont impact shareholders like RA - he will still legally own the shares and will be easily able to find buyers through his network,
It will only impact small time holders who will not have avenues to sell shares. Why would the UK government do something that hurts small UK suppliers without impacting the Oligarch investor? It would defy all logic
Understandable to be worried but the three risks are:
-Sanctions - unlikely due to major supply chain disruptions it will cause in east & west and potential job losses. Also temporary.
- DeListing - unlikely as this only really hurts small time shareholders without avenues to sell shares. Large shareholders are still legally owners and can easily find another buyer.
- Seizures / forced nationalisation - also unlikely as this will discourage any business from ever setting up factories in whichever country again.
The have frozen assets in an attempt to choke Putins influencers into making changes. They will not want to impact the operations of Evraz, its employees or discourage business. Therefore imo - you just need to ride this out
We bought in knowing the risk - it was dirt cheap for a reason.
Who knows how long this will be suspended? Could be 2 days could be 2 years. But I'm sure in the long run RAs lawyers will pick holes in every action taken by the government, and the chances of governments intervening in operations / employment is low imo.
Evraz is massive and any operational sanctions / seizures will disrupt supply chains around the whole world. Which is not in anyones best interest, east or west.
De-Listing would be an incredibly harsh action to take as it will only impact small time UK investors who will struggle to find a buyer. Owners and funds with large stakes & networks will be able to find buyers no problem. To me there is little incentive for FCA to delist.
I'm just going to be happy I legally own shares for the price I paid & wait for the dust to settle. Remember, a few k in the hole is nothing compared to the suffering in Ukraine :)
I think it will be European funds dumping stock exposed to Russia rather than Roman Abramovic.
Worst case scenario = Russian Assets seized & Non-Russian Assets don't generate enough cash to pay off the debt.
Best case scenario = continuing of normal operations to avoid major job losses & industry supply chain issues in both economies.
Risky one but at this price , i'm in. GLA
Most of the RNS since the RTO have used language like "significant revenues" or "exciting potential" - but have give zero indication to what that means. Its impossible to value the company without a single indication of revenue values.
I bought in here about 60p due to this exciting language and (more importantly) the successful background of RB, Steven & others who were behind the language. But I am beginning to regret that now, nearly 50% down, still no indication of value, highly illiquid and lots of opportunity out there that seem more appealing.
How much longer is everyone going to wait?
I'd prefer share buyback
Wonder what the motive is behind the big sale trades every few days?
Looks like a big shareholder has been offloading for a few months
Joewilliam, out of interest what do you mean by major growth areas, green energy?
I think it's a good move to cancel.
The energy crises is the perfect opportunity to heavily push for reform on the price cap, something they have wanted for a long time and now have a clear case against it.
Can you imagine the media headlines if during all this - talks of winter discontent and empty shelves - centrica hold a capital markets day showing big cash flows from Spirit, big profits from EM&T and discussions of how to make profits from future green energy switch?
Centrica have to think very carefully about timings and pick battles with the media, ofgem and consumers if they ever want to change perceptions.
That's why I mentioned share buy backs as a replacement dividend could be the best way of distributing wealth to shareholders.
Would save a lot of faff if they were bought out by a big private company who would have no obligations for constant public updates on profits
A common practice in the USA is for a company to buy back their own shares when they are undervalued. This means remaining shareholders own a larger portion of the business = increase in share value. Kind of like an indirect dividend.
This would get less media scrutiny than a dividend during this energy crisis, and also would result in lower cash outflow for future dividends.
worth considering imo
Did EM&T division take out some major long term hedges in 2020 when gas prices were at all time lows?
Failing that, could they bring forward the "legacy gas contract" and cash it in now?
If Centrica have enough contracts in place to weather the storm, they could emerge from this with an increased customer base, lower pressure from Ofgem, and revalued production assets.
If not, it could be another rough few years for shareholders.
and if customer A has double the AUM than customer B, customer A will surely question why they are paying double for the same product suite?
If Insig Ai can take home a portion of asset management fees for the customers using their products, that could be huge.
But it seems a bit too good to be true IMO. If a competitor offers a similar product as SaaS that would massively undercut Insig.
Is there anyone here close to the asset management world, who has seen profit sharing set-ups before?
29 September 2021 Centrica completes construction of British Army's first solar farm
The British Army's first photovoltaic Solar Farm has been officially opened by the Minister for Defence Procurement, Jeremy Quin, today.
Completed earlier this month and the size of almost eight football pitches, the solar farm is based at The Defence School of Transport (DST), Leconfield, and forms part of the British Army's £200 million Project Prometheus investment which is designed to see the Army using renewable energy.
Built by Centrica Business Solutions, the solar farm is made up of over 4,000 solar panels and is the first of four pilot sites to officially open. Across all four sites, the project estimates £1 million in efficiency savings and 2,000 tCO2e (tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) annually, with saving costs due to be reinvested into essential Army infrastructure.
"This multi-million pound investment reaffirms our commitment to Net Zero 2050 and developing a more sustainable service. Significant investment will result in a more efficient and environmentally-friendly estate."
Minister for Defence Procurement, Jeremy Quin
Spanning approximately four hectares and with a peak capacity of 2.3MW, the solar panelled farm is projected to save 700 tonnes of carbon emissions and cut electricity bills by one third annually at DST.
A majority of the energy generated will be used onsite at DST to provide support to personnel based there. This may include powering accommodation, offices, hangars, classrooms and the gymnasium, whilst any surplus will be exported to the grid.
Outlined in the recent Defence Command Paper, innovation and green initiatives will be at the forefront of a future Army, of which Project Prometheus forms a part. This is further supported by the £24 billion increase in spending over four years, as announced by the Prime Minister last November.
"Our first operational solar farm at Leconfield marks a key milestone in the Army's go-green agenda; it showcases our firm commitment to tackle the effects of climate change, harnessing renewable energy to power our estate. Leconfield is the first of four pilot sites to open this year; each builds on our knowledge and expertise, enabling us to upscale and deliver a total of 80 solar farms across the Army Estate within the decade; we continue to Think Big - Start Small - Scale Fast."
The Director of Basing and Infrastructure, Major General David Southall
To help reduce greenhouse emissions across Defence, the Army is investing the £200 million into its solar farms over the next 10 years. The initiative is designed to support the UK Government reach its target of net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
"It's been a privilege to work alongside the Army to deliver its first major solar scheme here at DST Leconfield. It will require a monumental effort to reach Net Zero, but by showing leadership on sustainability and carbon reduction, the Army has put in place a template w
The UK's sixth largest energy company, Bulb, is seeking a bailout to stay afloat amid surging wholesale gas prices.
The company, with 1.7m customers, is working with the investment bank Lazard to try to shore up its balance sheet.
That is why I said the total impact will depend on hedging.
Centrica fix their cost of gas prices through direct & indirect contracts. This is for scenarios like this - when gas prices rise unsustainably high they retain a fixed cost of sale. If the EM&T division have done their job properly, gas prices would be hedged at a cost much lower than market rates.
"The average dual fuel bill will climb to £1,277 from £1,138 for the 11 million households paying by direct debit, up by £139"
BG have 3.2 million customers on variable tariffs
£139 * 3.2M = £444M extra margin (in absolute scenario - total impact will depend on hedging)
Finance cost = £200m / year - with reduced debt this should significantly reduce, otherwise offset by cash generating projects
Legacy contract = £100m / year - ending 2024 / 2025
IMHO - Centrica could be back to 0.8 / 1.0bn profit / year by 2025 - providing ofgem are reasonable & no major hiccups.
Which at 12x earnings = 10-12bn market cap.
Please comment / correct / ridicule if you have an opinion on the above.