Member Info for Carllapos

I converted to 80% cash early last week, I started tentatively buying again today, back into CARD and Hyve, almost bought SIG at 29p, but held off. Bloody typical, but there you go.

I converted to 80% cash beginning of last week, I timed it well for a change. Started buying again on today’s lows, although I’m still 60% cash and won’t drop below 50% cash until Brexit is done. There far too much uncertainty for me right now and I’d rather risk missing some of the rise if there is a deal than risk being swallowed up by a no deal sell off.

What a day to announce it! Ha ha ha

Very strange movement without any related news.

Brexit jitters for sure. Most of the market is subdued.

I think this share is more insulated than most from any Brexit fallout, but we certainly won’t be immune. I’m allowing for 20% downward risk.

I agree with your insight and thanks for offering it.

I think any shareholding right now, you have to weigh up the risk of a potential downside in a no deal scenario against the potential gain of a surprise deal. Which for all the chest puffing, I still think logic will prevail, although my confidence in such an outcome is not what it was.

I’ll be honest 25% of my portfolio was in SIG at an average of 28p. But as of this week, I am now 80% cash, and I sold out of SIG on Monday at 33p as I didn’t see anything good coming of this week.

But at 30p, I’m seeing very little downside, even with a no deal exit. We’re starting from such a low baseline, so I see no more than a temp 20% downside, that would easily be corrected by January results. So I’m tempted to re-enter sooner than I initially anticipated.

I think it’s good that SIG are offering this forward guidance on potential price rises. A lot of these products are low margin, so competitors will need to do the same.

The one thing Brexit won’t do, is suppress demand, as the thing with building products, is it takes what it takes. You can’t just say “we’l cut back on how many roofing tiles we use by 20%”. It just doesn’t work like that.

I think the biggest potential risk to the bottom line would be logistics. Delays in the supply chain could be costly and the cost of logistics could be increased.

Do you guys think a no deal is priced in today? Or would the SP break away into the mid 20’s with no deal?

Valve amp,

You really shouldn’t be investing if that’s how you think things work.

Mostly Brexit nerves dragging this down I think. Who knows where we’ll be with no deal. But this share hasn’t seen dramatic rises, so I think it has less to fall and will bounce back quicker than others. 28p would be my guess, but a guess is all it is.

I’ve got my finger hovering over the buy button. Catch 22 really as Brexit woes are likely responsible for the current drop. A deal will send it past 36p but no deal maybe into 20’s!!! What to do, what to do.

Thanks for the info. I think I shall do the same with hyve and just go with a 20% tranche.

There is good money to be made from cine still. I see 120p in the near term. But i’ve lost my apatite for cine as there are too many variables at play such as the studios holding the puppet strings. I feel 40P is just as likely as 120p right now. So the risk reward is therefore out of my parameters.

Brexit is this share biggest enemy right now over covid.

What’s your buy in target dream machine?

As mentioned, I was aiming for 120, but I’m now thinking mid teens may be where we’re heading. But Brexit news will be fundamental to this weeks movements. If a deal is announced, I will miss a buy window. But with no deal, we could well head back towards £1 momentarily.

This is my point. I believe mcap eas around £850m pre covid. I think a 50% recovery of mcap in the next 6-12 months is realistic, which is around 180-200p at a guess. But any more than that I think the market is going to want to see profit return.

Indeed prof!

As investors start looking at fundamentals again, shares like SIG will start to get a move on. I’m expecting 60p by spring, pure speculation of course, but I think this is grossly undervalued and we are yet to see the Francis effect. Good times ahead.

It’s a solid business that has turned a profit year in year out.

New CEO, a decent trading update and then finally a return to dividend and you will be the one laughing then!

As reality kicks in and some of these covid recovery shares start to pull back in the travel, aviation and leisure industry start to pull back, investors will start to look for fundamentals again. I feel card will have that.

Totally agree Steve,

CEO is holding this back. But I’d rather they took
The time to find the right person for the job. In
The mean time I keep adding anytime it drops below 45p.

Decent CEO and January announcement and we should see a lovely rerate.

I agree. I’ve missed out on a few decent rises on my watch list with the amount I have in CARD. But I don’t see many with as much headroom as this.

I think If it wasn’t for covid, this would have crawled back to 2019 levels over the course of 2020. So I see no reason why it still won’t in the coming years.

Card excites me. We’re still 50% of pre covid levels and around 30% of dec 2019.

2019 disappointed the market, but ok reflection they still made good money and the result prompted some core changes to the business. So I think it will be back to 2019 levels within 18-24 months.

That was good business from you, but it doesn’t offer me any clarify on my question regarding MCAP.

Surly ore Covid MCAP is the easiest benchmark to measure expectation?