Member Info for Carllapos

Aquazi,

Obviously I don’t know your position, but surely if you are averaged that high in card, now is the perfect time to average down and increase your likelihood of reaching BEP? This SP is likely years away from seeing £2 again. But £1+ is realistic within 18 months as long as the vaccine goes as expected. So the more you can average down, the better chance you have of climbing out.

Isn’t that’s a chicken and egg scenario though? In order for viewers to vote on their feet, there needs to be something to attract them there in the first place.

As for RI, fair comment and I see your point, maybe withholding dividends will be enough to service the debt, but for that to work there needs to be profit and it remains to be seen when that will be achieved.

Now that you’ve had your rant, you might want to look below at ‘uallmakeitup’s post where they say “all hospital data is made up”.

This is the comment I was referring to, not yours, oh prickly one.

Anyone else using trading 212 ?

I still don’t have my allocation bu my funds are still blocked.

Paddy, I think mid 30’s is a sound buy in zone. I’m averaged at 38p and feel comfortable in my estimate that I only have a circa 10-15% downward risk.

The next lockdown should hopefully be the last one. But I think above the opening of shops, what is most key to CARD, is the relaxation on social gatherings (hopefully by mid summer). Once weddings, birthday parties, Christening’s etc return, we will start to see some positive quarterly results and I think that will promote a fairly sharp rise.

I’m not overly concerned about lease liabilities, landlords are having to play ball right now and if it was causing any major issues, I’d imagine they would have no choice but to include this in an RNS or they would risk facing regulatory action. That’s my guess anyway.

Moola,

I agree that an RI requires a higher SP, which is why they opted to use alternative capital raising measures this year. Which is also why I think we will have one next year when the SP is nearer 100p. They have to bring this debt pile down somehow as the service costs are going to be huge and the market was already wary of their debt pile prior to the pandemic.

In regards to the market value of cine, I think it’s hard to say that it’s undervalued now to be honest. On paper perhaps, but how do you value a business that isn’t trading and that has a massive cash burn?

My biggest concern is that the studios hold all the strings. I have no doubt that cinema will return, but how much damage is done to cine by the time that comes, is a worry. Personally, I’m now sitting this one out and watching from the sidelines. I’ll gladly get back in cine and i will likely miss the initial rise, but I won’t reinvest until there is more clarity on reopenings/ releases. There’s more bad news to come for cine before good news in my opinion.

Moola,

I agree that Brexit is good for general market Sentiment, but I think cine’s problems are far too deep to see any benefit from this. Falling case numbers and reopening dates are the only 2
Things I can see that will get this moving. I think we may then see a sharp move towards 80- 100p range on sentiment before the realty of cines woes brings it back down. I think we are a long way off from cine sustaining north of 100p. They’re got a bigger hole than many to dig out of and I think an RI is inevitable at some point during 2021.

I honestly think you have rose tinted glasses on. I do believe that cine is a good long term bet. But to double in the next 3 months, when both the UK and USA have record case numbers, most screens will remain shut and no significant releases due for some time, why on earth would this double in 3 months?

I think if it can hold it’s current SP, it’s done well and then hopefully push on from summer.

NBC was an iPhone special...meant to read income.

Maybe I’m being naive. But what the hell does Brexit mean to Cineworld?.....nothing as far as I can tell, it’s irrelevant given that most I NBC one is UK or US derived.

National lockdown pending, so every excuse not to rise!

This is a great LTH, but I wouldn’t expect to see any great returns in the next few months.

Paddyboy

Mid to high 30’s most likely when national lockdown is announced, but as a long term hold, that just represents a chance to top up in my opinion.

CARD consistently makes profit year on year and is near guaranteed to return to profit quite promptly once life returns to normality in 2022. Dividend will be based on the profits at the time and not the SP of today.

SP was circa 90p pre covid and 160p at the end of 2019. (Which is not historically high for this share). The company has gone through a lot of changes with a new CEO, a new online focus, retail partners and a decent increase in product margin. So it is perfectly reasonable to believe that this SP could return to 2019 levels within 24 - 36 months.

The financials probably aren’t going to be pretty, but I’d say that’s largely priced in at the moment and that this will rerate quite sharply towards 60p in mid 2021, because compared to the wider market, CARD is way undervalued and is also a fairly recession proof business that is poised to do well during the inevitable economic slump in the coming years.

Ride easy,

Sadly very true.

If you actually think hospital data is made up, then you probably shouldn’t be investing as you clearly lack the ability to process realty, let alone sound analysis.

Yes, some of the death data may be questionable, but none the less, the excess deaths over last year are factual.

And whether you believe the data or not, you damn sure better believe the economic impact of it.

I’m far from doom and gloom, but at the same time, you have to accept the reality of the dire situation we are now in and things are going to get worse before the lunch get better. A tough few months ahead, but brighter days are on the horizon.

You’ve got to make a profit to pay a dividend.

It’s more about removing the uncertainty of no deal from the market.

Unfortunately I think good Brexit news is being countered by very bad covid news. Hopefully we get news on the Oxford vaccine in the next couple of days.

Do you actually have any idea how credit unions work?.....or the world at that!?

I’m still waiting on 212 as well.

The online shift is obvious, but those who think bricks and mortar are totally dead, are foolish. Every cars store I see is still buys. Their prices mean people go out of their way to go to a card store and cards online offering is getting better.

I don’t see any reason why they won’t get back to pre pandemic profit levels in a relatively short period of time.